Fantasy Preview: Darlington Raceway

To a man, NASCAR drivers will tell you that Darlington Raceway is either the single toughest track, or one of the toughest tracks on which they compete. The rough surface makes it impossible for a team to find a consistent setup on the car that will work as well at the end of a pit-stop cycle as it did at the beginning.

As soon as the tires go away, the responsibility is back on the driver's shoulders to find the optimum speed that walks that ragged edge between crashing and going fast. It's not as if a driver can search for another line to improve his handling. There is only one groove at Darlington, and it's about five feet on the other side of the retaining wall.

Several drivers have said that the Car of Tomorrow is actually more like the Car of Yesterday, and if that is true, fantasy owners may see the return of the Darlington stripe. For years the fastest way around the track was to lightly graze the wall. However, if they hit it too hard, the tow-out gets messed up, which means that even winning drivers flirt with disaster.

Last week, drivers learned that these COT cars are pretty sturdy after Juan Montoya backed into the wall and still posted fairly competitive laps. This week will test the sides of the car because after the door panels get worn down, the suspension and tire well is the next in line to take abuse. One way or the other, this is going to be about the most interesting COT race all season.

Not Too Tough
Last week, Jeff Gordon was a perfect example of how important momentum can be. The No. 24 team has struggled more at Richmond International Raceway than any other track on which the series competes and yet they were able to run in the top five all day. Now that Gordon has cleared his Richmond hurdle, he is going to keep dominating until his momentum winds down, and there is no reason to believe that will happen at Darlington.

From 1995 through 1998, the driver of the No. 24 once posted eight consecutive top-three finishes. He has won six times on this track and four times at North Carolina Motor Speedway -- another sandpaper-like track -- and one more victory is well within reach. Gordon crashed in back-to-back races at Darlington in 2003 and 2004, but he found his groove again in fall 2004 to finish third. Since then, he's been second in the last two races and is close to completing the deal.

The driver who won both of the last two races also has to be heavily favored. Greg Biffle has had a difficult time in 2007, but he nearly turned his fortune around last week before he was wrecked by Jeff Green. Drivers have a way of forgetting the hardship, however, and Biffle will focus his attention on how strong his run was before that mishap as well as his strength at Darlington. Last year in this race, he posted the best average running position of 2.4, spent the most laps among the field in the top five, and had a nearly perfect driver rating. If he cannot turn things around this week, then the rest of his season is a write-off.

Immediately prior to Biffle's ascendancy, Jimmie Johnson was the driver to beat. He swept Victory Lane in 2004 -- the last season this track hosted two events -- and he has finished outside the top 10 only once in eight career starts. Last year, Johnson, Gordon and Kyle Busch all finished in the top 10 and that was before the COT made Hendrick Motorsports the team to beat on a weekly basis. Don't be surprised if these three drivers run 1-2-3 again this week.

A Little Tougher
Darlington is not overly kind to traditional dark horses. While this is a driver's track, lightly funded teams are not usually to be found in the top 10 at the end of the day, and the long shots come as a type rather than individual drivers. Last year. Robby Gordon, Ken Schrader, Kyle Petty and Joe Nemechek all finished in the top 20. And even a cursory look at these men reveals a lot of gray hair. Experience counts at Darlington. The dark horses this week should come from among drivers with a lot of experience -- especially if they practice strong on Friday.

Ryan Newman has finished sixth or better in three of the last four Darlington races and he is the only active driver who scored a top-five in his first attempt on this rough old track. Like Biffle, this could be a watershed moment for him after finishing in the top 10 for consecutive races for the first time in a year. Prior to his ninth-place finish at Talladega Superspeedway and his sixth at Richmond, the last time he finished in the top 10 twice in a row was last year at Richmond and Darlington. The last time Newman had three consecutive top-10s was at the end of 2005, so this week will tell how much Penske Racing has turned its program around.

Too Tough
While Darlington can be occasionally kind to dark horses, it is almost never kind to rookies. Of the 43 active drivers who have already made at least one start on this track, only six earned a top-10 in their first outing. Last year, Denny Hamlin joined that exclusive list while Reed Sorenson in 11th and Martin Truex Jr. in 14th came close. But the Class of 2007 has not shown anywhere near the strength of last year's rookies.

After a tire test this spring, Montoya called this track the "darndest place" he'd ever seen, and that was while running by himself. Once 42 other competitors get up to full song, it's going to be like swatting angry bees while running through a pit of vipers. Any of the six drivers attempting to make their first start this week, who finish in the top 20, should be lauded -- but they shouldn't be on your fantasy roster.

Kevin Harvick is one veteran to avoid this week. He hasn't finished in the top 10 at Darlington in three years, and two of his last three attempts ended in 30-something finishes. In fact, with four results of 32nd or worse compared to four Darlington top-10s, he is just as likely to finish well back in the pack as he is to earn maximum points, and at his current salary cap, he is not worth the risk.