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Loop Data suggests Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch will be among the frontrunners at Michigan.

Shop Talk: Michigan

Reason for optimism: Ford, Dodge have Chevy's number

By Official Release
June 13, 2007
04:00 PM EDT
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DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- The end is near for the Chevrolet win streak. Maybe.

First take a look at the torrid pace Chevy has set this season:
• 13 Wins
• 7 Poles
• 96.7 Average Driver Rating
• 3,502 Laps Led
• 2,620 Fastest Laps Run

After Jeff Gordon's win at Pocono Raceway, Chevy's winning streak has reached 12 races. But if past history is any indication, it'll be an unlucky 13 for Chevrolet.

Michigan International Speedway has not been kind to Chevy in recent years. The manufacturer is mired in an 11-race winless drought at MIS, the longest for Chevy at any track on the circuit.

Instead, Fords and Dodges have consistently parked in Victory Lane.

The Roush Fenway Racing stable has especially good numbers. Three Roush Fenway drivers in particular have excelled at the Brooklyn, Mich., track. Below are some key Loop Data numbers and rankings of Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards -- the three drivers who have had the most success at MIS in the past two years:

Loop Data

Top Ford drivers at Michigan
  Greg Biffle Rank Matt Kenseth Rank Carl Edwards Rank
Driver Rating 118.1 1st 111.3 2nd 109.8 3rd
Avg. Running Pos. 6.527 1st 10.208 3rd 7.970 2nd
Fastest Laps Run 65 1st 35 8th 55 T-2nd
Laps in the Top 15 680 1st 607 3rd 626 2nd
Quality Passes 188 2nd 144 9th 210 1st
• Quality Passes are passes of cars in the top 15 while under green flag conditions

Matt Kenseth won the last race at Michigan, in August. Kasey Kahne, who has fallen into a slump of his own, is the defending champion of the June race.

Kahne and his fellow Dodge drivers have also performed well at MIS. Along with Kahne, these Dodge drivers have picked up wins at Michigan during Chevy's drought: Jeremy Mayfield (now in a Toyota), Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch and Sterling Marlin (now in a Chevy).

Two Dodge drivers in particular to watch for are Busch and second-year driver Reed Sorenson. Both have impressive Loop Data numbers and have fared well at MIS during the past two years:

Top Dodge drivers at Michigan
  Kurt Busch Rank Reed Sorenson Rank
Driver Rating 100.1 4th 94.0 11th
Avg. Running Pos. 12.758 9th 12.544 7th
Fastest Laps Run 50 4th 1 T-35th
Laps in the Top 15 534 6th 246 19th
Quality Passes 160 6th 77 9th
• Sorenson's stats based on two races

That's not to say Chevrolet has run poorly at Michigan. They've run into some tough luck in the past two years. Here are the race-best numbers in some key statistics at MIS:

Driver Rating/Average Running Position

Michigan International Speedway (past two years)
Pos. Driver Race Driver Rating Driver Pos. Race Avg. Running Pos.
1. Matt Kenseth 8/06 139.7 1. Tony Stewart 6/05 2.485
2. Tony Stewart 6/05 136.1 2. Matt Kenseth 8/06 3.730
3. Greg Biffle 6/05 135.5 3. Greg Biffle 6/05 4.035
4. Kurt Busch 8/05 131.2 4. Jeff Gordon 6/06 4.651
5. Jeff Gordon 6/06 125.7 5. Jimmie Johnson 6/06 4.760

Clearly, Chevrolets have proven formidable at MIS despite not winning. Stewart has the second-best, single-race Driver Rating during the past two years at MIS. He earned the rating in the first Michigan race in 2005, which resulted in a second-place finish to Biffle. He also earned the best Average Running Position at MIS in the past two years at that race.

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Loop Data

2007 Season-to-Date
Points Driver Make Avg. Pos. Driver Rating
1. J. Gordon Chevy 9.5 111.9
2. M. Kenseth Ford 11.0 98.4
3. D. Hamlin Chevy 10.3 103.0
4. J. Johnson Chevy 8.5 110.7
5. J. Burton Chevy 14.4 91.7
6. T. Stewart Chevy 11.1 103.4
7. C. Edwards Ford 14.3 88.8
8. C. Bowyer Chevy 16.1 82.9
9. K. Harvick Chevy 16.6 82.9
10. Ky. Busch Chevy 14.5 92.3
11. M. Truex Jr. Chevy 15.3 83.6
12. M. Martin Chevy 13.0 92.7

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