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Fantasy Preview: Chicago (cont'd)
"Cookie-cutter" kings
With several good, modestly priced options this week, you should have enough money to spend on any marquee driver you want, so pay close attention to the "cookie-cutter" kings.
Johnson, Stewart and Jeff Gordon have combined to win six of the last nine races on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks, dating back to Gordon's controversial bump-and-run on Kenseth in this race last year. In 2007, he's been practically perfect in regards to top-15 finishes and his only poor result came at Lowe's in the Coca-Cola 600. In that race, however, he was running in the top five when he was crashed by a car trying desperately to get a lap back. Even with that 41st-place finish factored into the equation, he has an average finish of 6.4 in the 2007 season so far.
Johnson has been the "cookie-cutter" king ever since he joined the circuit. In 48 previous starts on this type of track, Johnson has already amassed 10 victories, 25 top-fives and 37 top-10s compared to a measly five results outside the top 25. Four of his poor finishes came as the result of either an accident or engine failure, which suggests that so long as he stays in one piece, he's virtually guaranteed a strong finish.
Johnson doesn't show any signs of slowing down on these tracks; he's already won twice this year on the "cookie-cutters" and has finished worse than 16th only once in his last 24 attempts.
Stewart might be the riskiest of the bunch, but he can't be ignored. While he's won three of the last nine "cookie-cutter" races, all of those triumphs came last year at Kansas, Atlanta and Texas. This year, he nearly won at Atlanta again when he finished second to Johnson and he has another seventh at Las Vegas and a sixth at Lowe's to recommend him, but he's been uneven during the season with finishes of 25th or worse in six of the first 18 races. Most of those poor results can be explained away, but you don't want to make excuses for your lineup on Monday. Last year, Stewart's explanation at Chicagoland was fuel mileage. He had a top-five capable car, before running out of gas with the checkers in sight.
Stale cookies
Kasey Kahne earned a top-10 last week in the Pepsi 400, and it was the kind of come-from-behind story that makes NASCAR so much fun to watch. After he was collected by Jeff Green on Lap 3 -- before the oil in the engine ever had a chance to get hot -- the team went to work and repaired his Dodge well enough to get him into ninth. That was only his second top-10 of the season, however, and his other strong showing came on the same restrictor-plate superspeedway in the Daytona 500, 17 races prior.
Kahne has been miserable on the "cookie-cutter" tracks for more than a year now. After winning three consecutive races on this type of course at Atlanta, Texas and Lowe's at the start of 2006, he has finished 20th or worse in the last nine attempts. His troubles began in this race last year when he finished 23rd, and while it would be poetic to see him reverse his fortunes in the same race, it is just not likely.
The 2003 winner, Newman is another driver who lost the setup for this track. After finishing fifth here in his rookie season and winning in his second year, he has a best finish of only 29th in the last three Chicagoland races. The other "cookie-cutter" tracks have not been any kinder to him in the past two seasons. Since the beginning of 2006, he's earned only one top-10 and two top-20s in 13 races and has an average finish of 30th.
| Pos. | Driver | Average | Pos. | Driver | Average | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jimmie Johnson | 5.88 | 26. | Joe Nemechek | 23.23 | ||
| 2. | Tony Stewart | 9.52 | 27. | David Stremme | 23.69 | ||
| 3. | Matt Kenseth | 10.75 | 28. | Jamie McMurray | 24.27 | ||
| 4. | Mark Martin | 10.99 | 29. | Scott Riggs | 24.53 | ||
| 5. | Jeff Gordon | 11.64 | 30. | Ricky Rudd | 25.04 | ||
| 6. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 12.24 | 31. | Robby Gordon | 27.21 | ||
| 7. | Carl Edwards | 13.11 | 32. | Dale Jarrett | 28.16 | ||
| 8. | Jeff Burton | 13.86 | 33. | Sterling Marlin | 28.19 | ||
| 9. | Greg Biffle | 14.39 | 34. | David Gilliland | 28.57 | ||
| 10. | Denny Hamlin | 15.04 | 35. | David Reutimann | 28.91 | ||
| 11. | Kyle Busch | 15.17 | 36. | Dave Blaney | 28.92 | ||
| 12. | Kasey Kahne | 16.32 | 37. | Michael Waltrip | 29.77 | ||
| 13. | Kurt Busch | 16.45 | 38. | Paul Menard | 29.77 | ||
| 14. | Martin Truex Jr. | 17.59 | 39. | Tony Raines | 30.10 | ||
| 15. | Clint Bowyer | 18.38 | 40. | David Ragan | 31.28 | ||
| 16. | Juan Montoya | 18.58 | 41. | Jeff Green | 31.42 | ||
| 17. | Casey Mears | 19.85 | 42. | Johnny Sauter | 33.39 | ||
| 18. | Kevin Harvick | 20.05 | 43. | Bill Elliott | 33.93 | ||
| 19. | Elliott Sadler | 20.52 | 44. | John Andretti | 34.68 | ||
| 20. | Brian Vickers | 20.86 | 45. | Ward Burton | 35.27 | ||
| 21. | J.J. Yeley | 21.27 | 46. | A.J. Allmendinger | 36.27 | ||
| 22. | Reed Sorenson | 21.53 | 47. | Kenny Wallace | 37.70 | ||
| 23. | Jeremy Mayfield | 21.59 | 48. | Kevin Lepage | 38.16 | ||
| 24. | Bobby Labonte | 22.05 | 49. | Chad Chaffin | 39.37 | ||
| 25. | Ryan Newman | 23.08 | |||||