Fantasy Preview: Chicago

Following the wild-card race at Daytona International Speedway, NASCAR rolls into the Windy City for a 400-mile affair on the 1.5-mile, doglegged oval of Chicagoland Speedway.

Along with Atlanta Motor Speedway, Lowe's Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway, this is one of the so-called "cookie-cutter" tracks, but what it lacks in an original configuration, it makes up for in predictability. That is of paramount importance to fantasy owners after losing so many points last week when three favorites were wiped out in a single incident on Lap 15.

When Tony Stewart ran into the back of Denny Hamlin early in the race, he not only eliminated those two drivers, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. was also swept into the carnage when Reed Sorenson ran into the back of him. However, since these drivers were so heavily favored entering the week, there was actually very little impact on the game. For example, among the top 100 teams in the Superstar Fantasy Cap game, only five players earned more than 900 points while 36 teams earned 700 or fewer. Hopefully this softens the blow for weary fantasy owners.

With nine races held on the six intermediate tracks, and four more on the big sister 2-mile doglegged ovals of California Speedway and Michigan International Speedway, there is a lot of data that can be used to identify strong teams this week, but before you settle into the same old pattern of picking the well-used drivers, be aware that Chicagoland is kinder to dark horses than nearly any other track.

In its first season of Nextel Cup competition in 2001, rookie Kevin Harvick won while the lightly funded Doug Bawel-owned entry of Robert Pressley finished second and Jimmy Spencer -- in a Travis Carter Ford -- finished fifth.

Super sophomores
Harvick won the following year as a second-year driver and Ryan Newman won in 2003, his second season. With that, the pattern was set for Young Gun dominance.

In 2001, Harvick wasn't the only Young Gun to finish strong. Matt Kenseth finished third, while rookie Kurt Busch was eighth. In 2002, four drivers with three years of experience or less finished sixth or better and Dale Earnhardt Jr. was 10th that same season in his third year. The 2003 season witnessed three more Young Guns in the top 10.

The 2004 and 2005 seasons bucked the trend, however. In 2004, only Jimmie Johnson finished in the top 10 in his third year of competition and the top-finishing rookie was Brian Vickers in 14th. In 2005, Vickers cracked the top-five with a fourth in his second season and Casey Mears joined him in ninth, while the top-finishing rookie was once again in 14th. Kyle Busch took the rookie of the race honors that year.

However, last year the rookies were back in top form with Sorenson leading the charge in seventh. Clint Bowyer was ninth, J.J. Yeley was 10th and Denny Hamlin was 14th. Another rookie, Martin Truex Jr., narrowly missed cracking the top 15 in 16th and David Stremme barely missed the top 20 in 21st, and the class combined for an average finish of 12.8, which was their best showing of the 2006 season. They have only improved with age, and instead of setting your roster from the top this week, we suggest you liberally sprinkle the second-year drivers into your lineup and then see how much salary cap room you have left over for marquee drivers.

Hamlin and Truex have already won this season, and they have to be considered strong threats to take another trophy home, but the dark horse of the race might just be Yeley -- not only for a top-five, but for the outright victory. With an ultimatum from Joe Gibbs Racing still swirling around in his head, and controversy surrounding his teammates, this would be an excellent time for the Young Gun to step up to the plate and knock one out of the park. Seven weeks ago, when the series last visited an intermediate course, Yeley used a combination of strategy and strength to finish second in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte and he wants more.

This year's rookie class has not been nearly as successful as last season and with so many second-year drivers from which to choose, there is very little need to take a risk on a first-year driver. If you are going to, however, Juan Montoya deserves a second look. He's been erratic on the intermediate courses so far, with a 22nd in the first event at Las Vegas and a 28th in his last outing at Lowe's, but in between he swept the top 10 at Atlanta and Texas. If he's fast in practice, the driver of the No. 42 might set himself apart from his classmates. (Continued)