Fantasy Preview: Chicago

Following the wild-card race at Daytona International Speedway, NASCAR rolls into the Windy City for a 400-mile affair on the 1.5-mile, doglegged oval of Chicagoland Speedway.

Along with Atlanta Motor Speedway, Lowe's Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway, this is one of the so-called "cookie-cutter" tracks, but what it lacks in an original configuration, it makes up for in predictability. That is of paramount importance to fantasy owners after losing so many points last week when three favorites were wiped out in a single incident on Lap 15.

When Tony Stewart ran into the back of Denny Hamlin early in the race, he not only eliminated those two drivers, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. was also swept into the carnage when Reed Sorenson ran into the back of him. However, since these drivers were so heavily favored entering the week, there was actually very little impact on the game. For example, among the top 100 teams in the Superstar Fantasy Cap game, only five players earned more than 900 points while 36 teams earned 700 or fewer. Hopefully this softens the blow for weary fantasy owners.

With nine races held on the six intermediate tracks, and four more on the big sister 2-mile doglegged ovals of California Speedway and Michigan International Speedway, there is a lot of data that can be used to identify strong teams this week, but before you settle into the same old pattern of picking the well-used drivers, be aware that Chicagoland is kinder to dark horses than nearly any other track.

In its first season of Nextel Cup competition in 2001, rookie Kevin Harvick won while the lightly funded Doug Bawel-owned entry of Robert Pressley finished second and Jimmy Spencer -- in a Travis Carter Ford -- finished fifth.

Super sophomores
Harvick won the following year as a second-year driver and Ryan Newman won in 2003, his second season. With that, the pattern was set for Young Gun dominance.

In 2001, Harvick wasn't the only Young Gun to finish strong. Matt Kenseth finished third, while rookie Kurt Busch was eighth. In 2002, four drivers with three years of experience or less finished sixth or better and Dale Earnhardt Jr. was 10th that same season in his third year. The 2003 season witnessed three more Young Guns in the top 10.

The 2004 and 2005 seasons bucked the trend, however. In 2004, only Jimmie Johnson finished in the top 10 in his third year of competition and the top-finishing rookie was Brian Vickers in 14th. In 2005, Vickers cracked the top-five with a fourth in his second season and Casey Mears joined him in ninth, while the top-finishing rookie was once again in 14th. Kyle Busch took the rookie of the race honors that year.

However, last year the rookies were back in top form with Sorenson leading the charge in seventh. Clint Bowyer was ninth, J.J. Yeley was 10th and Denny Hamlin was 14th. Another rookie, Martin Truex Jr., narrowly missed cracking the top 15 in 16th and David Stremme barely missed the top 20 in 21st, and the class combined for an average finish of 12.8, which was their best showing of the 2006 season. They have only improved with age, and instead of setting your roster from the top this week, we suggest you liberally sprinkle the second-year drivers into your lineup and then see how much salary cap room you have left over for marquee drivers.

Hamlin and Truex have already won this season, and they have to be considered strong threats to take another trophy home, but the dark horse of the race might just be Yeley -- not only for a top-five, but for the outright victory. With an ultimatum from Joe Gibbs Racing still swirling around in his head, and controversy surrounding his teammates, this would be an excellent time for the Young Gun to step up to the plate and knock one out of the park. Seven weeks ago, when the series last visited an intermediate course, Yeley used a combination of strategy and strength to finish second in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte and he wants more.

This year's rookie class has not been nearly as successful as last season and with so many second-year drivers from which to choose, there is very little need to take a risk on a first-year driver. If you are going to, however, Juan Montoya deserves a second look. He's been erratic on the intermediate courses so far, with a 22nd in the first event at Las Vegas and a 28th in his last outing at Lowe's, but in between he swept the top 10 at Atlanta and Texas. If he's fast in practice, the driver of the No. 42 might set himself apart from his classmates.

"Cookie-cutter" kings
With several good, modestly priced options this week, you should have enough money to spend on any marquee driver you want, so pay close attention to the "cookie-cutter" kings.

Johnson, Stewart and Jeff Gordon have combined to win six of the last nine races on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks, dating back to Gordon's controversial bump-and-run on Kenseth in this race last year. In 2007, he's been practically perfect in regards to top-15 finishes and his only poor result came at Lowe's in the Coca-Cola 600. In that race, however, he was running in the top five when he was crashed by a car trying desperately to get a lap back. Even with that 41st-place finish factored into the equation, he has an average finish of 6.4 in the 2007 season so far.

Johnson has been the "cookie-cutter" king ever since he joined the circuit. In 48 previous starts on this type of track, Johnson has already amassed 10 victories, 25 top-fives and 37 top-10s compared to a measly five results outside the top 25. Four of his poor finishes came as the result of either an accident or engine failure, which suggests that so long as he stays in one piece, he's virtually guaranteed a strong finish.

Johnson doesn't show any signs of slowing down on these tracks; he's already won twice this year on the "cookie-cutters" and has finished worse than 16th only once in his last 24 attempts.

Stewart might be the riskiest of the bunch, but he can't be ignored. While he's won three of the last nine "cookie-cutter" races, all of those triumphs came last year at Kansas, Atlanta and Texas. This year, he nearly won at Atlanta again when he finished second to Johnson and he has another seventh at Las Vegas and a sixth at Lowe's to recommend him, but he's been uneven during the season with finishes of 25th or worse in six of the first 18 races. Most of those poor results can be explained away, but you don't want to make excuses for your lineup on Monday. Last year, Stewart's explanation at Chicagoland was fuel mileage. He had a top-five capable car, before running out of gas with the checkers in sight.

Stale cookies
Kasey Kahne earned a top-10 last week in the Pepsi 400, and it was the kind of come-from-behind story that makes NASCAR so much fun to watch. After he was collected by Jeff Green on Lap 3 -- before the oil in the engine ever had a chance to get hot -- the team went to work and repaired his Dodge well enough to get him into ninth. That was only his second top-10 of the season, however, and his other strong showing came on the same restrictor-plate superspeedway in the Daytona 500, 17 races prior.

Kahne has been miserable on the "cookie-cutter" tracks for more than a year now. After winning three consecutive races on this type of course at Atlanta, Texas and Lowe's at the start of 2006, he has finished 20th or worse in the last nine attempts. His troubles began in this race last year when he finished 23rd, and while it would be poetic to see him reverse his fortunes in the same race, it is just not likely.

The 2003 winner, Newman is another driver who lost the setup for this track. After finishing fifth here in his rookie season and winning in his second year, he has a best finish of only 29th in the last three Chicagoland races. The other "cookie-cutter" tracks have not been any kinder to him in the past two seasons. Since the beginning of 2006, he's earned only one top-10 and two top-20s in 13 races and has an average finish of 30th.