Chase Bubble: The Glen (cont'd)

It's a safe bet to say that Earnhardt will stay close -- he only trails by seven points right now -- and it could come down to Richmond to determine whether or not he makes the Chase.

Throw out the 42nd-place showing at Indy and 14th-place driver Ryan Newman could be sitting in the Chase this week. He was eighth at Chicagoland and seventh at Pocono, so that's an upward trend, and he has run very well on road courses. He has a runner-up at the Glen in five starts, and his average finish there is similar to Earnhardt's at 15.0.

Newman, like Earnhardt, is another with the moxie to keep it close, and will probably be there at the end.

After Newman, it's wing-and-a-prayer time.

Greg Biffle had been solid, if unspectacular, coming into Pocono, but a 23rd-place finish has likely torpedoed his run to the Chase. Sitting 15th with five races remaining, Biffle is 216 points out, and the Glen is not his favorite place to race.

Biffle's average finish at the Glen is a staggering 35.2; that's more than Earnhardt and Newman's combined (30.7). It's almost cliche to say it, but Biffle's chances of making the Chase now are slim and none.

Mark Martin is taking a scheduled weekend off, and while he's tied with Biffle at 216 points out, that sixth missed race will put an end to the Chase talk. He had posted 14th-, sixth- and ninth-place finishes in the three previous races, too.

After winning at Daytona, Jamie McMurray looked like a mortal lock to be racing for the title. Now, after a 40th-place showing at Pocono, McMurray just looks mortal. That disappointing finish just about sealed his Chase aspirations, leaving him 252 points out with five to go. Making up 50-plus points per race is not an impossible task; it just isn't likely to happen. McMurray has finished 38th, 33rd and 40th the last three times out, and that's not going to get it done.

Despite the fact Watkins Glen is a road course, and despite the fact he's Juan Montoya, the Colombian driver is out of the Chase and likely to stay that way. His 22nd-place run at Pocono dropped him 67 points to Busch, and he is a distant 267 behind Busch in 12th.

Among the top six, all are cruising. Jeff Gordon is 844 points ahead of Earnhardt, Jr., and the sixth-place driver, Carl Edwards, is up by 283 with five to go. Bowyer, Truex and Kurt Busch are the only drivers really on the bubble now, with Earnhardt Jr. and Newman breathing down Busch's neck for 12th.

The smart money says that Earnhardt will be back in the Chase and Newman closer than the 90 points he currently trails Busch by now, but that could change in a lap or two on Sunday.