Chase Bubble: The Glen

Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.

That pretty much sums up the Bubble Bunch last week at Pocono, as Kurt Busch did what he had to do to make it into the top 12 and several others lost ground to the 2004 Nextel Cup champion.

A 195-point day will do that for you.

Of course, a poor finish at Pocono meant that Chase dreams might be done for a couple of drivers, and indeed that will prove to be the case.

As it sits right now, Jimmie Johnson's fifth-place finish at Pocono was enough to push him off the bubble and elevate him from a precarious ninth to a solid seventh in the standings. He's 225 points ahead of Busch in 12th, and that qualifies as safe, with five races to go.

Kyle Busch, who finished 12th at Pocono, remained eighth and a solid 219 points off the Chase bubble.

That puts Kevin Harvick on the outside of the safe zone in ninth, 208 points ahead of Busch after finishing 17th at Pocono and dropping two spots in the points. But with Watkins Glen coming up this week and Harvick the defending champion, it's a pretty good bet that Harvick will be back in the safe zone at this time next week.

Harvick had been trending up, going fourth and seventh before finishing 17th last week, and there's no reason to expect him to suffer at the Glen.

Clint Bowyer sits 10th and he had another top-10 run at Pocono to remain close to the safe zone. The Kansan has been a top-10 machine lately, including two of the last three races, and his eighth at Pocono gives him a 160-point bulge on 12th-place Busch.

After a midseason surge that saw him a sure-thing Chase contender, Martin Truex Jr. has fallen on hard times. That was true at Pocono, as he ran 22nd and dropped to a mere 38 points ahead of Busch after the latter's max-point performance.

Truex had been trending down for a variety of mechanical ills that resulted in a 39th-place run at Chicago. He rebounded to 12th at Indy and then faded somewhat at Pocono. He's vulnerable, and with the way Busch is running, could be the bubble guy next week.

In 12th is Busch, whose domination of the Pennsylvania 500 set records for laps led (175) and sponsor mentions in Victory Lane. He's been white-hot over the last three races, clicking off sixth- and 11th-place finishes before running the show at Pocono.

Busch has not been that hot at the Glen, however, with an average finish of 25th in the last six starts, so it could be interesting to see where the momentum takes him.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. dropped out of the top 12 despite one of his better runs of the season at Pocono. He finished second to Busch, but the 10-point bonus for leading the most laps kept Junior from keeping his spot.

Earnhardt came into Pocono trending down on the basis of 19th- and 34th-place finishes at Chicagoland and Indy, but the runner-up showing came despite an evil-handling chassis that required a shock change under yellow. That shock change jump-started his day, and it might be the mojo he and his team were looking for to turn things around.

He runs pretty well at Watkins Glen, with a pair of top-fives in seven starts, and he was third there last year.

It's a safe bet to say that Earnhardt will stay close -- he only trails by seven points right now -- and it could come down to Richmond to determine whether or not he makes the Chase.

Throw out the 42nd-place showing at Indy and 14th-place driver Ryan Newman could be sitting in the Chase this week. He was eighth at Chicagoland and seventh at Pocono, so that's an upward trend, and he has run very well on road courses. He has a runner-up at the Glen in five starts, and his average finish there is similar to Earnhardt's at 15.0.

Newman, like Earnhardt, is another with the moxie to keep it close, and will probably be there at the end.

After Newman, it's wing-and-a-prayer time.

Greg Biffle had been solid, if unspectacular, coming into Pocono, but a 23rd-place finish has likely torpedoed his run to the Chase. Sitting 15th with five races remaining, Biffle is 216 points out, and the Glen is not his favorite place to race.

Biffle's average finish at the Glen is a staggering 35.2; that's more than Earnhardt and Newman's combined (30.7). It's almost cliche to say it, but Biffle's chances of making the Chase now are slim and none.

Mark Martin is taking a scheduled weekend off, and while he's tied with Biffle at 216 points out, that sixth missed race will put an end to the Chase talk. He had posted 14th-, sixth- and ninth-place finishes in the three previous races, too.

After winning at Daytona, Jamie McMurray looked like a mortal lock to be racing for the title. Now, after a 40th-place showing at Pocono, McMurray just looks mortal. That disappointing finish just about sealed his Chase aspirations, leaving him 252 points out with five to go. Making up 50-plus points per race is not an impossible task; it just isn't likely to happen. McMurray has finished 38th, 33rd and 40th the last three times out, and that's not going to get it done.

Despite the fact Watkins Glen is a road course, and despite the fact he's Juan Montoya, the Colombian driver is out of the Chase and likely to stay that way. His 22nd-place run at Pocono dropped him 67 points to Busch, and he is a distant 267 behind Busch in 12th.

Among the top six, all are cruising. Jeff Gordon is 844 points ahead of Earnhardt, Jr., and the sixth-place driver, Carl Edwards, is up by 283 with five to go. Bowyer, Truex and Kurt Busch are the only drivers really on the bubble now, with Earnhardt Jr. and Newman breathing down Busch's neck for 12th.

The smart money says that Earnhardt will be back in the Chase and Newman closer than the 90 points he currently trails Busch by now, but that could change in a lap or two on Sunday.