Chase Bubble: Michigan

And then there were three.

After the carnage at Watkins Glen last weekend, there are just three drivers left who have a shot at supplanting one of the 12 drivers currently in the Chase for the Nextel Cup.

At Michigan International Speedway this weekend, any one of those three drivers that has a big problem could find themselves with no shot at the brass ring.

Traditionally, there are a lot of cars running at the finish at MIS -- 41 crossed the line under their own power earlier this year -- and that makes finishing the highest priority.

Ryan Newman and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are within 100 points of the Chase after Watkins Glen. Greg Biffle has one foot in the go-or-go-home area and the other barely inside the line for "still-has-a-shot."

A closer look at the drivers in positions 8-15:

No. 8 Kyle Busch

On the plus side of the Chase, another top-10 finish for Kyle Busch at Watkins Glen pushed him into the safe zone, as he has a 354-point lead on 13th-place Newman with four races to go. Statistically, it's possible that he might drop out of the top 12, but highly unlikely.

No. 9 Clint Bowyer

Ditto for Clint Bowyer, whose magic number seems to be 16 lately. He has finishes of 13th, eighth and 16th in his past three trips, and was 16th at MIS earlier in the year. His average finish there is a shaky 29.333, however, and his best finish came in June.

Bowyer is 234 points clear of Newman with four to go.

No. 10 Kevin Harvick

Harvick, who got the short end of the stick at The Glen by being caught up in the aftermath of some bumper tag between Juan Montoya and Martin Truex Jr., took a pretty big shot in the points by finishing 36th.

He dropped from ninth to 10th, and while he is 222 points up on Newman, he's riding the edge of a dangerously sharp knife. One more whoopsie like The Glen and he's in real trouble. In his last three races Harvick has been getting worse, finishing seventh, 17th and 36th.

Harvick has been decent at Michigan, with an average finish of 16.077. That's better than Newman's 16.667 mark, although Newman has two victories at MIS. Harvick has to be careful, however, and that should mitigate against the urge to make a "hole in Juan" payback move at Michigan, at the expense of his Chase hopes.

No. 11 Martin Truex Jr.

Truex, whose dive to the bottom in Turn 1 ended up turning Montoya into Harvick, emerged with little damage and raced to a sixth-place finish at The Glen. While still an uncomfortably close 154 points from Newman, Truex is coming off a runner-up finish earlier this year at MIS.

Truex has stabilized of late, finishing 12th, 22nd and sixth his last three trips to the line. Of course, the engine woes at DEI are well-known, and Michigan is a place where the revs stay high all day long, so that might play a role in what happens from here on out. Truex's average finish is 16.000 at the 2-mile, D-shaped oval, in three starts. (Continued)