Chase Bubble: Bristol (cont'd)

No. 12: Kurt Busch

Talk about kicking it into another gear when the heat is on. Busch won again last week at Michigan, leading the most laps as well, and added 63 points to his lead on Earnhardt Jr. in the process.

Busch is the modern-day King of Bristol, with his five victories in just 13 starts. There is, however, the fact that if Busch doesn't win, he's usually at the bottom of the running order. Of the eight starts in which he didn't win, five of them resulted in finishes of 25th or worse.

Two of those have come in the past two races, where he placed 37th and 29th. His average finish (15.1) reflects the up-and-down nature.

Busch is on a major roll, however, sandwiching victories around an 11th-place run at Watkins Glen. He'll have to have trouble for Earnhardt to gain much. Of course, if the stats play out the way they should, bet on Busch finishing 11th. His line the last four races is 11-1-11-1.

No. 13: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Watkins Glen is looking more and more like the straw that will break Junior's back. The blown engine there relegated him to 42nd at the finish; he was second the week before at Pocono and 12th at Michigan. If he had finished even 20th at the Glen -- and he had the car to do it -- the prognosis would be a whole lot better.

Earnhardt can get around Bristol a bit, winning in 2004 and recording eight top-10 finishes, and while his average finish is a slick 12.3, it might be a case of too much distance. Five of those top-10s were top-fives, so there's a good chance he can make some hay under the lights, but 163 points is a ton to make up in three races.

No. 14: Ryan Newman

Newman isn't out of this yet; he's only eight points behind Earnhardt and 171 behind Busch, but time is starting to run out on him. He's getting worse when he needs to be better, logging seventh-, 13th- and 16th-place finishes his last three starts. Whatever secret Busch seems to have found is not working as well for Newman.

Bristol is not one of his better tracks, statistically. He was second to Earnhardt in 2004, and he has five top-10s in 11 career starts, but his average finish is a surprising 21.3.

It's make-or-break for Newman this week.

The Bubble has burst

Add Greg Biffle to the list of drivers saying, "wait 'til next year."

He's 296 points out with three races to go and that's way too much to make up. Bristol is a good track for Biffle, but even that won't help. His best chance was last week -- or earlier this week -- at Michigan, and he came home 19th after spinning on the next-to-last lap.

Biffle's average finish at Bristol is 10.3, second only to Harvick, and he has five top-10 finishes there. Outside of a top-10 run at The Glen, Biffle has been 23rd and 19th in his last three and that isn't what he needed to see.