Chase Bubble: Bristol

Dale Earnhardt Jr. can't feel all that comfy knowing he's racing Kurt Busch for the last spot in the Chase for the Nextel Cup and the series' next stop is Bristol Motor Speedway.

Yankee Stadium is the House that Ruth Built; Bristol might as well be Kurt's Place.

With three races to go until the 12-car Chase field is set and Busch winning two of the last three races, Earnhardt will have to throw caution -- and his Chase chances -- to the wind to have any kind of shot at overhauling Busch.

So will Ryan Newman, who with Earnhardt is the only other driver with an outside chance of getting inside the top 12.

A closer look at the drivers in positions 8-15:

No. 8: Kyle Busch

A bad pit call at Michigan kept him out of the top five, but Busch is in little danger of being overtaken. He's currently 320 points up on the 13th-place Earnhardt Jr., and he needs to be 391 ahead at the end of Saturday night's event to clinch a spot.

He won at Bristol in March in the debut of the Car of Tomorrow, so he knows how to do it. His average finish (14.4) is better than his brother's, and he's got three top-10s in five starts at BMS. He might not get all the way to the Chase this weekend, but it will be close.

In his last three starts, Busch has been 12th, seventh and 13th, so he's getting it done.

No. 9: Clint Bowyer

Bowyer finished a so-so 17th at Michigan, putting him 218 points ahead of Earnhardt. With a maximum point gain potential of 161 points, there's reason for concern at Bristol, where his rivals tend to run better than he has. His best finish at Bristol is eighth earlier this year and his average finish is 25.0.

Bowyer has been solid, if unspectacular, in the last three races, going eighth, 16th and 17th, but he's still a ways from being anywhere near the panic button.

No. 10: Kevin Harvick

Harvick, like his RCR teammate Bowyer, is in that same area, leading 13th place by 212 points. Unlike Bowyer, he runs well at Bristol, posting the best average finish among the bubble boys at 10.0. He won at BMS in 2005, and he's a top-10 machine on the tricky 0.533-mile oval, earning nine in 13 starts. Seven of those were also top-fives.

He'll need to keep it up after his last three races. He's finished 17th, 36th and 15th in that span, and even last week, the simmering feud with Juan Montoya was still a topic of conversation.

But Harvick is a pro, and he's smart enough to use the opportunity to gain back one of those spots he lost at Watkins Glen.

No. 11: Martin Truex Jr.

Despite finishing second to Busch at Michigan, Truex is in the "tweener" category this week. It's not so much Earnhardt that he's watching at the moment; it's Kurt Busch. Thanks to his two max-point efforts at Pocono and Michigan, Busch is just 33 points behind Truex with three to go.

All signs point to Truex being able to make his 196-point lead on Earnhardt stick, as he's finished 22nd, sixth and second the last three weeks. But, Truex has the worst average finish in the group at Bristol (31.0) and his best finish in three starts at the track is 18th.

Trouble seems to find him at Bristol, and he can't afford to have too much trouble if he's to avoid having to race hard to stay in it. (Continued)