Chase Bubble: Bristol

Dale Earnhardt Jr. can't feel all that comfy knowing he's racing Kurt Busch for the last spot in the Chase for the Nextel Cup and the series' next stop is Bristol Motor Speedway.

Yankee Stadium is the House that Ruth Built; Bristol might as well be Kurt's Place.

With three races to go until the 12-car Chase field is set and Busch winning two of the last three races, Earnhardt will have to throw caution -- and his Chase chances -- to the wind to have any kind of shot at overhauling Busch.

So will Ryan Newman, who with Earnhardt is the only other driver with an outside chance of getting inside the top 12.

A closer look at the drivers in positions 8-15:

No. 8: Kyle Busch

A bad pit call at Michigan kept him out of the top five, but Busch is in little danger of being overtaken. He's currently 320 points up on the 13th-place Earnhardt Jr., and he needs to be 391 ahead at the end of Saturday night's event to clinch a spot.

He won at Bristol in March in the debut of the Car of Tomorrow, so he knows how to do it. His average finish (14.4) is better than his brother's, and he's got three top-10s in five starts at BMS. He might not get all the way to the Chase this weekend, but it will be close.

In his last three starts, Busch has been 12th, seventh and 13th, so he's getting it done.

No. 9: Clint Bowyer

Bowyer finished a so-so 17th at Michigan, putting him 218 points ahead of Earnhardt. With a maximum point gain potential of 161 points, there's reason for concern at Bristol, where his rivals tend to run better than he has. His best finish at Bristol is eighth earlier this year and his average finish is 25.0.

Bowyer has been solid, if unspectacular, in the last three races, going eighth, 16th and 17th, but he's still a ways from being anywhere near the panic button.

No. 10: Kevin Harvick

Harvick, like his RCR teammate Bowyer, is in that same area, leading 13th place by 212 points. Unlike Bowyer, he runs well at Bristol, posting the best average finish among the bubble boys at 10.0. He won at BMS in 2005, and he's a top-10 machine on the tricky 0.533-mile oval, earning nine in 13 starts. Seven of those were also top-fives.

He'll need to keep it up after his last three races. He's finished 17th, 36th and 15th in that span, and even last week, the simmering feud with Juan Montoya was still a topic of conversation.

But Harvick is a pro, and he's smart enough to use the opportunity to gain back one of those spots he lost at Watkins Glen.

No. 11: Martin Truex Jr.

Despite finishing second to Busch at Michigan, Truex is in the "tweener" category this week. It's not so much Earnhardt that he's watching at the moment; it's Kurt Busch. Thanks to his two max-point efforts at Pocono and Michigan, Busch is just 33 points behind Truex with three to go.

All signs point to Truex being able to make his 196-point lead on Earnhardt stick, as he's finished 22nd, sixth and second the last three weeks. But, Truex has the worst average finish in the group at Bristol (31.0) and his best finish in three starts at the track is 18th.

Trouble seems to find him at Bristol, and he can't afford to have too much trouble if he's to avoid having to race hard to stay in it.

No. 12: Kurt Busch

Talk about kicking it into another gear when the heat is on. Busch won again last week at Michigan, leading the most laps as well, and added 63 points to his lead on Earnhardt Jr. in the process.

Busch is the modern-day King of Bristol, with his five victories in just 13 starts. There is, however, the fact that if Busch doesn't win, he's usually at the bottom of the running order. Of the eight starts in which he didn't win, five of them resulted in finishes of 25th or worse.

Two of those have come in the past two races, where he placed 37th and 29th. His average finish (15.1) reflects the up-and-down nature.

Busch is on a major roll, however, sandwiching victories around an 11th-place run at Watkins Glen. He'll have to have trouble for Earnhardt to gain much. Of course, if the stats play out the way they should, bet on Busch finishing 11th. His line the last four races is 11-1-11-1.

No. 13: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Watkins Glen is looking more and more like the straw that will break Junior's back. The blown engine there relegated him to 42nd at the finish; he was second the week before at Pocono and 12th at Michigan. If he had finished even 20th at the Glen -- and he had the car to do it -- the prognosis would be a whole lot better.

Earnhardt can get around Bristol a bit, winning in 2004 and recording eight top-10 finishes, and while his average finish is a slick 12.3, it might be a case of too much distance. Five of those top-10s were top-fives, so there's a good chance he can make some hay under the lights, but 163 points is a ton to make up in three races.

No. 14: Ryan Newman

Newman isn't out of this yet; he's only eight points behind Earnhardt and 171 behind Busch, but time is starting to run out on him. He's getting worse when he needs to be better, logging seventh-, 13th- and 16th-place finishes his last three starts. Whatever secret Busch seems to have found is not working as well for Newman.

Bristol is not one of his better tracks, statistically. He was second to Earnhardt in 2004, and he has five top-10s in 11 career starts, but his average finish is a surprising 21.3.

It's make-or-break for Newman this week.

The Bubble has burst

Add Greg Biffle to the list of drivers saying, "wait 'til next year."

He's 296 points out with three races to go and that's way too much to make up. Bristol is a good track for Biffle, but even that won't help. His best chance was last week -- or earlier this week -- at Michigan, and he came home 19th after spinning on the next-to-last lap.

Biffle's average finish at Bristol is 10.3, second only to Harvick, and he has five top-10 finishes there. Outside of a top-10 run at The Glen, Biffle has been 23rd and 19th in his last three and that isn't what he needed to see.