Chase Bubble: California (cont'd)

No. 11: Martin Truex Jr.

After Bristol, where he came home 11th despite his second bump-and-run in three weeks (who can forget Watkins Glen), Truex gained significant ground on Harvick and set up himself to easily clinch at Richmond, if not California.

Like last week, he's got one eye on Harvick for 10th and the other in the rear-view mirror. Kurt Busch is just eight points back, and there's still time to have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

With an average finish of 25.0 in three starts, it's entirely possible that could happen. Truex's best effort at California is 15th, and while he's averaged a sixth-place finish in his past three races, Busch has done even better. Add to that the fact that he lost 29 points to Earnhardt at Bristol, and all is not as hunky-dory as it might seem.

Truex did rally at Bristol to record a career-best finish there, and he had the worst stats of the "bubble" brigade coming in, so it's not as clear-cut as it might seem, either. He blew up in February, finishing 42nd, so reliability is going to be the key.

No. 12: Kurt Busch

Despite not winning at Bristol, which would have made him 6-for-14 there, Busch was right behind Earnhardt at the finish and has a 158-point lead on Junior. All he needs to do is add four points to that and he's in.

Who would have thought that Busch would be this close to clinching after what happened earlier this year at Dover? He dropped from ninth to 17th in the points after his penalty, and thoughts of the Chase were very far off indeed.

New crew chief Pat Tryson has made a difference, and Busch seems to have found whatever had been missing prior to Tryson coming on board.

His average finish in the past three races is an even 6.0, and he's been playing the points game like a master. He's racing Earnhardt every week and so far, it's working.

Busch averages 11.5 per finish at California, winning there in 2003, and he's been in the top 10 four times in 10 starts.

No. 13: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Bristol was a chance -- possibly the last -- for Earnhardt to make it a race come Richmond. He did what he had to do, finishing fifth, but he looked in the mirror at the checkered and saw the Blue Deuce right behind him. He gained five points.

Earnhardt is down to hoping that Busch tags a valve or gets caught up in somebody's mess. Despite putting 12th- and fifth-place runs down the past two weeks, it's that 42nd-place finish at The Glen that's hurting him.

California isn't the place he wants to have to perform, because his average finish in 11 starts is 21.182. That dog won't hunt. Neither will the four DNFs he has there. He finished second in this race last year, just his second top-five there. He'll have to match that or beat it while Busch falters badly. Earnhardt could stave off elimination at California, but the mountain he'd have to climb at Richmond would be steep indeed.

No. 14: Ryan Newman

Newman is in much the same spot as Earnhardt: win or race for 13th. If Earnhardt looked real hard at the mirror once the checkered flag fell at Bristol, he could see the No. 12 Dodge behind Busch, in seventh place, so Newman is doing his job, but Newman didn't gain anything on Earnhardt or Busch by finishing behind them.

He lost nine points to stand 175 behind Busch and 17 behind Earnhardt. Barring a crash or blown engine at California, Newman is done. He, like Earnhardt, can stretch it out a week, but unless there's a major shift, Newman's Chase hopes are dashed.

Newman has a pole, two top-five and three top-10 finishes at California, and his average finish there is 17.3, but that's not going to be enough. Like last week, it's put-up-or-shut-up time.

The bubble has burst

No drivers officially fell off the bubble after Bristol, though the margin got a lot tougher. The possible addition of Earnhardt and Newman to this list next week will mean that the Chase is set in California, not Virginia, and the only thing that the Chevy Rock and Roll 400 will determine is the seeding for the final 10 races.