Chase Bubble: California

With four of the top five in points clinching Chase spots at Bristol -- Jeff Gordon clinched at Watkins Glen -- the remaining "bubble" drivers are running out of chances to get into the top 12.

Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Burton will clinch at California, and Kyle Busch will likely qualify as well, leaving just six drivers to duke it out for the final four spots in the Chase.

California is about as different as it gets from Bristol, and it will be a high-speed chase for the Chase. The engines will remain wound up tight, and that could spell doom for the bottom four in the Chase or the two drivers with a shot at catching them.

If one of those engines pops, so will the bubble.

A closer look at drivers in positions 8-15:

No. 8: Kyle Busch

Busch finished ninth at Bristol, four spots behind Dale Earnhardt Jr., and big brother Kurt was sixth. Busch is still 303 points ahead of Earnhardt with just California and Richmond to go, so he appears to be a mortal lock to clinch this weekend.

Busch has won at California, his first career victory in 2005. He runs quite well there on average, finishing in the top 10 in four of six starts. His average finish is a solid 12.5, and he's averaged better than a top-10 the past three races. Sunday night, he's in the Chase.

No. 9: Clint Bowyer

Bowyer picked a fine time to record his best finish of the season, third, last week at Bristol. It happens that the third-place run tied his career-best finish -- at California in this race last year.

The stats at Bristol weighed against him, but he responded with a career-best effort. His stats at California, at least in terms of average finish, are the best among the "bubble" boys. His average in three starts is a miniscule 7.667. He's a pretty safe 223 points ahead of Earnhardt, and barring a blown engine or early crash, should power his way into the Chase next week with no sweat.

In his last three outings, Bowyer has been 16th, 17th and third, so he's peaking at the right time.

No. 10: Kevin Harvick

Harvick is closer than he would probably like heading to his home state, sitting 167 points ahead of Earnhardt with two to go. He's also a single marker ahead of 11th-place Martin Truex Jr.

Despite being a native, Harvick's numbers aren't that impressive at California. In 10 starts, his best finish is sixth and he has just two top-10 finishes. In the last three he hasn't set the world on fire, going 36th, 15th and 16th, but while he might lose 10th, it is unlikely that he will fall out of the top 12. If he hits his average, which is 20.7, he'll be OK. He needs to be 162 points ahead of Earnhardt at the end of Sunday's race and he's in.

A crash or mechanical problem, however, and it could be much tenser at Richmond than it should be. The example of Tony Stewart last year is still hanging out there in the ether, and Harvick should be aware that stranger things have happened. (Continued)