Chase Bubble: Richmond (cont'd)

13. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
It all boils down to 400 laps on Saturday night for Earnhardt.

All of the scenarios for him to make it in depend on either Harvick or Busch having major trouble. The worst he can finish is fifth to still have a shot at the Chase, and he must lead the most laps and have Harvick finish 43rd for that to happen. He can finish fourth and lead a lap or third and lead no laps and still make it in, provided Harvick is 43rd.

Best-case scenario for Earnhardt is to win the race and lead the most laps. He will clinch a spot then if Harvick is 33rd or worse or Busch is 37th or worse. If he wins the race but doesn't lead the most laps -- he's led 322 in his career but only 47 in the past two seasons there -- Harvick has to finish 34th or worse for Earnhardt to make it in, or Busch has to finish 39th or worse.

If Earnhardt finishes second and doesn't lead, he needs Harvick to finish 41st, assuming Harvick also doesn't lead. Earnhardt has never made up more than 115 points on Harvick during a Richmond race. In fact, he's only scored more than 128 points better than Harvick once -- at Atlanta in March of 2002 -- and the margin that day was 129 points.

Considering the fact that Harvick all but owns Richmond over the past five races, catching Busch might be easier.

Earnhardt has to finish second or win the race. If he is second and leads the most laps, Busch has to finish 42nd for Earnhardt to qualify.

It's going to have to be the race of Earnhardt's life for him to make the Chase.

The Bubble has Burst
Ryan Newman needed to have a near-perfect day at California to have a chance of making the Chase at Richmond.

He didn't.

The engine on his No. 12 Dodge blew on Lap 194, and he finished 39th, officially ending his chances at the Chase. It was the third engine failure of the season for Newman, and it came at a crucial time.

The result left him 254 points behind Harvick, once the California race shook out. He would have been a tough out at RIR, where he's won before and led 355 laps in 11 starts.

So it all boils down to 400 laps on a short track known for exciting finishes and close competition. Three drivers fighting for two spots in the Chase should add to that reputation.