Chase Bubble: Richmond

Whatever happens on Saturday night at Richmond, the bubble will burst on the 2007 Chase for the Nextel Cup for one driver.

The Chase field will be set, and the 12 men who earned the right to compete for the season crown will get busy racing for it. The 13th will try to make it hard for them.

Overwhelmingly, the odds are stacked against the 13th-place driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr., who needs to overcome a 128-point deficit to Kevin Harvick to compete for the crown. Stats fairly shout that Earnhardt is Don Quixote, tilting at windmills while the rest of the Chasers race away into the sunset.

Still, Richmond is a short track, and fortunes can change in a single turn of a Goodyear Racing Eagle, from in the Chase and cruising to behind the wall and scrambling for postseason life.

Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Burton and Kyle Busch all clinched Chase berths at California last week, leaving only five drivers on the bubble at Richmond. Two of those drivers need only to start the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 to clinch their spots, so it boils down to three in a go-or-go-home battle.

A closer look at drivers in positions 9-13:

9. Clint Bowyer
Bowyer needs to start at Richmond to make his first Chase field. He maintained his spot in the points with consistent runs, including a third-place run at Bristol two weeks ago.

He's never led a lap at Richmond, but he'll certainly try, as he's the only driver in the top 12 that has not won a race yet this year. He's in the unique position of actually dropping three spots once the Chase starts because he has no bonus points.

10. Martin Truex Jr.
Truex, like Bowyer, has merely to take the green flag and he's in. That's probably a good thing, since his best finish at RIR is 28th and his average finish is 36.3. He does have bonus points, winning at Dover, so he'll be no worse than 11th when the Chase starts.

Truex has been pretty good lately, finishing second, 11th and sixth in the past three races. Like Bowyer, he's never led a lap at Richmond, and he'll be looking for more bonus points on Saturday.

11. Kurt Busch
The hottest driver in the sport right now, Busch is in the happy position of just needing to avoid catastrophe to make it into the Chase.

All he has to do is finish at least 36th and his late-season run continues to the title fight. He can finish as low as 38th and still make it in, depending on how Dale Earnhardt Jr. runs. On the flip side, he's won at Richmond before (2005) and he wants those 10 extra bonus points to tie him for third when the Chase starts.

12. Kevin Harvick
After taking off at a TV reporter at California last week, Harvick has a little bit of an edge to him this weekend. His late-season malaise -- his best finish since Indy is 14th last week -- has dropped him from seventh to 12th in the standings, 129 points from missing out on the Chase.

Of course, Harvick really runs well at Richmond. He won this race last year, and better than half of his 13 starts have ended up in top-10 finishes (seven). Over the past two years at RIR, he's led nearly 600 laps, and he's first in Driver Rating with a whopping score of 125.4.

No matter what Earnhardt does on Saturday, Harvick can clinch a spot if he finishes 32nd or better.

13. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
It all boils down to 400 laps on Saturday night for Earnhardt.

All of the scenarios for him to make it in depend on either Harvick or Busch having major trouble. The worst he can finish is fifth to still have a shot at the Chase, and he must lead the most laps and have Harvick finish 43rd for that to happen. He can finish fourth and lead a lap or third and lead no laps and still make it in, provided Harvick is 43rd.

Best-case scenario for Earnhardt is to win the race and lead the most laps. He will clinch a spot then if Harvick is 33rd or worse or Busch is 37th or worse. If he wins the race but doesn't lead the most laps -- he's led 322 in his career but only 47 in the past two seasons there -- Harvick has to finish 34th or worse for Earnhardt to make it in, or Busch has to finish 39th or worse.

If Earnhardt finishes second and doesn't lead, he needs Harvick to finish 41st, assuming Harvick also doesn't lead. Earnhardt has never made up more than 115 points on Harvick during a Richmond race. In fact, he's only scored more than 128 points better than Harvick once -- at Atlanta in March of 2002 -- and the margin that day was 129 points.

Considering the fact that Harvick all but owns Richmond over the past five races, catching Busch might be easier.

Earnhardt has to finish second or win the race. If he is second and leads the most laps, Busch has to finish 42nd for Earnhardt to qualify.

It's going to have to be the race of Earnhardt's life for him to make the Chase.

The Bubble has Burst
Ryan Newman needed to have a near-perfect day at California to have a chance of making the Chase at Richmond.

He didn't.

The engine on his No. 12 Dodge blew on Lap 194, and he finished 39th, officially ending his chances at the Chase. It was the third engine failure of the season for Newman, and it came at a crucial time.

The result left him 254 points behind Harvick, once the California race shook out. He would have been a tough out at RIR, where he's won before and led 355 laps in 11 starts.

So it all boils down to 400 laps on a short track known for exciting finishes and close competition. Three drivers fighting for two spots in the Chase should add to that reputation.