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Statistically speaking, when the checkered flag waves at New Hampshire International Speedway late Sunday afternoon, the championship outlook should look as tight as it does now.
Only 60 points separate 12th place from first, and figuring how well practically all the Chase drivers perform at New Hampshire, not much should change.
Not surprisingly, the best shine at New Hampshire -- a vital stop on the way to the championship.
In each key Loop Data statistic, Chase drivers dominate. Below are the race bests at New Hampshire since 2005. Each category is peppered with Chase competitors.
| Driver Rating | Average Running Position | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos. | Driver | Date | Rating | Pos. | Driver | Date | ARP | |
| 1. | Tony Stewart | 7/05 | 149.2 | 1. | Kevin Harvick | 9/06 | 1.5 | |
| 2. | Kevin Harvick | 9/06 | 148.9 | 2. | Tony Stewart | 7/05 | 2.2 | |
| 3. | Tony Stewart | 9/05 | 143.0 | 3. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 7/07 | 2.7 | |
| 4. | Kyle Busch | 7/06 | 141.1 | 4. | Kyle Busch | 7/06 | 2.9 | |
| 5. | Ryan Newman | 9/05 | 133.3 | 5. | Tony Stewart | 9/05 | 2.9 |
| Fastest Laps Run | Quality Passes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos. | Driver | Date | FLR | Pos. | Driver | Date | QP | |
| 1. | Tony Stewart | 7/05 | 80 | 1. | Ryan Newman | 7/07 | 50 | |
| 2. | Tony Stewart | 9/05 | 71 | 2. | Tony Stewart | 7/07 | 48 | |
| 3. | Kevin Harvick | 9/06 | 63 | 3. | Kyle Busch | 7/07 | 47 | |
| 4. | Ryan Newman | 9/05 | 56 | 4. | Denny Hamlin | 7/06 | 47 | |
| 5. | Kyle Busch | 7/06 | 54 | 5. | Jimmie Johnson | 7/06 | 47 |
Not surprisingly, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin has won at least one race at NHIS (Stewart and Johnson have won two).
The same holds true in combined efforts as well. In every key Loop Data statistic, a Chase driver holds the top spot and is followed by other drivers competing for the Nextel Cup championship.
| Driver Rating | Average Running Position | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos. | Driver | DR | Pos. | Driver | ARP | |
| 1. | Tony Stewart | 116.9 | 1. | Jeff Gordon | 7.4 | |
| 2. | Denny Hamlin | 109.5 | 2. | Denny Hamlin | 8.8 | |
| 3. | Jeff Gordon | 106.4 | 3. | Kevin Harvick | 10.2 | |
| 4. | Kevin Harvick | 104.4 | 4. | Brian Vickers | 10.3 | |
| 5. | Ryan Newman | 101.9 | 5. | Jeff Burton | 10.7 |
| Laps in the Top 15 | Fastest Laps Run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos. | Driver | LT15 | Pos. | Driver | FLR | |
| 1. | Jeff Gordon | 1,321 | 1. | Tony Stewart | 173 | |
| 2. | Jeff Burton | 1,208 | 2. | Jeff Gordon | 122 | |
| 3. | Tony Stewart | 1,200 | 3. | Kevin Harvick | 91 | |
| 4. | Ryan Newman | 1,151 | 4. | Kyle Busch | 86 | |
| 5. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 1,142 | 5. | Ryan Newman | 85 |
But of the Chase drivers, Denny Hamlin has been the most consistent in his brief NHIS tenure. Hamlin, with a win there in July, is looking for the Loudon sweep. In three NHIS races, he has never finished worse than sixth, had a Driver Rating below 105.8 or an Average Running Position of under 8.7.
| POPULAR ALERTS | ||||
|
| Date | Finish | Avg. Run Pos. | Driver Rating | Laps in T15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/06 | 6 | 8.8 | 107.8 | 250 of 308 |
| 9/06 | 4 | 8.7 | 105.8 | 298 of 300 |
| 7/07 | 1 | 9.0 | 114.9 | 256 of 300 |
| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | +5 | Jimmie Johnson | 5060 | Leader |
| 2. | -1 | Jeff Gordon | 5040 | -20 |
| 3. | -1 | Tony Stewart | 5030 | -30 |
| 4. | -- | Carl Edwards | 5020 | -40 |
| 5. | +6 | Kurt Busch | 5020 | -40 |
| 6. | -3 | Denny Hamlin | 5010 | -50 |
| 7. | +3 | Martin Truex Jr. | 5010 | -50 |
| 8. | -3 | Matt Kenseth | 5010 | -50 |
| 9. | -1 | Kyle Busch | 5010 | -50 |
| 10. | -3 | Jeff Burton | 5010 | -50 |
| 11. | +1 | Kevin Harvick | 5010 | -50 |
| 12. | -3 | Clint Bowyer | 5000 | -60 |