Fantasy Preview: Loudon

The Chase for the Nextel Cup begins this week at New Hampshire International Speedway, and while fantasy owners don't particularly care about a driver's standing in the points if that contravenes their strength, that storyline is an important part of the equation when setting your roster for the Sylvania 300.

In the first three years, every edition of this race has been won by a Chase contender, and that record is not likely to be broken in 2007 since the 12 drivers with the most momentum happen to be vying for a championship.

The Chasers realize the importance of getting off to a strong start. In 2004, Kurt Busch won this race en route to the championship and in 2005, Tony Stewart finished second. Only Jimmie Johnson last year overcame a bad showing in the Sylvania 300 to claim the Cup.

Flat-Track Perfection
For the purposes of handicapping a fantasy race, the three short, flat tracks of New Hampshire, Phoenix International Raceway and Martinsville Speedway are probably the closest comparatives you will find. While the Magic Mile in New England has slightly more banking than the dusty 1-miler in Arizona, these two tracks are close enough in their configuration that a driver who excels on one typically runs great on the other. Both tracks host sprint races, which are short, flat-out runs for the checkered flag of only about 300 miles in length. The short track in Virginia is also a dash for the cash, and these courses allow drivers to string together some impressive streaks.

Three drivers have been perfect on the short, flat tracks during the 2007 season. In fact, those same drivers have been practically perfect on these courses dating back to this event last year. Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin each enter with a six-race top-five streak at New Hampshire, Phoenix and Martinsville. Johnson suffered crash damage in this race last year, but has swept the top five in his last five starts and between them, these three drivers boast an average finish of 2.6 during the last five events. That literally means they have been each other's competition and all three are likely to finish in the top five again this week.

In case you need more proof, those are also the three drivers who have won on the short, flat tracks this season. Johnson took the checkers at Martinsville with Gordon banging on his back bumper, Gordon won at Phoenix with Hamlin in third, and Hamlin beat Gordon to the line at New Hampshire in that track's first race.

In straight up, non-salary cap games, these drivers are your best bet, but they are likely to break the bank of the typical fantasy owner, especially since Johnson and Gordon finished in the top five last week at Richmond International Raceway and command more money than ever.

Fear Not
Fear not fantasy owners, there are several other drivers who have swept the top 15 on the short, flat tracks in 2007, and they demand respect, but not as much moolah. Stewart finished second to Gordon at Phoenix, was seventh at Martinsville and 12th at New Hampshire this spring. Last year, he logged top-five finishes in four of the six flat-track races and stumbled only once. In 2005, he won the first race at New Hampshire before finishing second in this event later that season, all of which combines to make him a favorite as well.

Kyle Busch struggled at Richmond last week, after posting five top-fives in his first five attempts on that short track. His disappointment with that result will only serve to strengthen his resolve, however, and while the driver of the No. 5 has had difficulty stringing strong runs together, he has also not had very many back-to-back bad results either. Last year, he struggled on this type of track with three finishes outside the top 35, but one of his strong runs came at New Hampshire in the first race. He won that event in Loudon -- and in 2007, he's been perfect on the short, flat tracks.