Fantasy Preview: Kansas

The butterflies are building in the drivers' stomachs, but for the moment they are the cute little insects one sees flying around the garden. With Talladega looming large on the horizon, the butterflies are about to become bats.

Last week was the tip of the iceberg.

Carl Edwards had throttle issues that might have cost him dearly; Kyle Busch was bounced about like a pinball during the closing laps of the Dodge Dealers 400 while Jeff Burton and Tony Stewart had handling issues that for a time stranded them off the lead lap. Everyone's heart sank at some point during the afternoon, but all except four of these men overcame their problems to finish in the top 15. Kevin Harvick finished 20th, which might have been much worse if not for the field-thinning crash in the closing laps.

Kurt Busch (29th), Matt Kenseth (35th) and Denny Hamlin (38th) finished outside the top 25 and used up their respective mulligan for the Chase. In fact, for the elder Busch the playoffs may yet be over since no driver in the short three-year history of the Chase has won the Cup after finishing 25th or worse in back-to-back races. Two weeks ago, Busch was 25th at New Hampshire International Speedway.

Last year, Kansas Speedway was not much kinder to the contenders. In 2006, the Chasers survived Dover International Speedway with an average finish of 18.1 and only two drivers finished in the top five with four in the top 10. They came to Kansas the next week and placed only four of their members in the top 10 again and averaged a result of 16.7.

In last week's race at Dover, the contenders finished with an average result of 16.2, which is below the standard set by the Chasers during the history of this format of 14.0 in 32 events. On the face of it, that might not seem like much of a difference, but drivers can't afford to use a mulligan here with Talladega still on the schedule.

'Cookie-cutter' kings

The battle this week is going to come down to two "cookie-cutter" kings -- Jimmie Johnson and Stewart. These two drivers have alternately commanded the six similarly configured, mile-and-half tracks and in any given week they have the capability to dominate like Bowyer did at New Hampshire a few weeks ago.

Johnson ended the 2006 season nearly perfect when he finished second in three consecutive races at Lowe's Motor Speedway, Atlanta Motor Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway. This season started out perfectly with back-to-back wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Atlanta. Fantasy owners will be pleased that Johnson has had enough trouble to keep his salary cap manageable. On the other hand, they might be disturbed by the fact that two of these issues came at Texas and Chicagoland Speedway. Johnson experienced trouble in both of those races, however, and his poor results are not indicative of a lack of speed.

In two of the races in which Johnson finished second, he was chasing Stewart across the line. The No. 20 took the checkers at Atlanta and Texas last year, but what might make him most attractive this week was his race at Kansas in the Banquet 400. He came into this event still reeling from missing the Chase and had something to prove. He has less of a chip on his shoulder this year with four top-10s in five "cookie-cutter" races and, in fact, he won the last outing at Chicagoland. Better still, he dodged a bullet last week by finishing among the top 10 with a car that struggled to find the right setup -- and that might just make him feel invincible.

Best of the rest

Edwards has not always been the greatest on the similarly configured 1.5-mile tracks. In fact, in the past two years, he has only two top-fives in the past 14 races and his average finish in that span is 14.5, but he has something to prove. After getting penalized 25 points for failing post-race inspection at Dover when his Ford was too low, he wants to show the fans what NASCAR already knows -- the problem was not intentional and likely had little or no impact on the outcome, and the lack of severity in the penalty from the sanctioning body suggests as much in any event.

Edwards was dominant on the high banks and he moved to within less than a handful of points from the leader. After the penalty, he slipped to sixth in the standings, but he's still well within reach of the top spot and he's never had this much momentum. Specifically on the "cookie-cutter" tracks, Edwards finished third in his last outing at Chicagoland.

Kenseth continues to be a blue-chip stock on every type of track. On the "cookie cutters," he's earned four top-fives in five starts and his other attempt ended in a respectable 12th. He used his mulligan last week in the Dodge Dealers 400 when he blew up in the closing laps to finish well down the order, which means he cannot afford another poor finish. The Roush Fenway Racing team might detune the car just a bit to improve its reliability, but even if that happens, he's still a strong candidate to earn a top-10.

Mark Martin won this race in 2005, snapping a four-race streak in which he'd finished in the 20s at Kansas. In his next attempt last year, he finished third to suggest he's found a setup he likes. This track is good to dark horses and two of the three playoff races on it have rewarded drivers outside the championship cutoff. This No. 01 team won in 2004 with Joe Nemechek behind the wheel and that convergence is going to work in Martin's favor this week. Last week, Martin ran strong on a Car of Tomorrow track -- where he has struggled all season -- so his confidence has to be at an all-time high.

Limits of the lend/lease program

Drivers to avoid this week include those who lease their engines from the super teams. While Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and others do their best to provide everyone with equal equipment, small changes made by the teams receiving the engines often have a major impact. Teams like the ones owned by Gene Haas driven by Jeff Green and Johnny Sauter have been great on short, flat tracks from time to time this season, but the big tracks have been mostly deadly.

Gillette Evernham Motorsports can also be discounted as a group this week. This was one of the races during which everything began to go south for Kasey Kahne last year when he finished in the 30s. He staged a comeback at Lowe's later in the Chase, but every other result on the similarly configured, mile-and-a-half tracks at the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007 has been 20th or worse. In fact, even with his Charlotte victory factored into the equation, Kahne has an average result of only 28.2 in the past nine races.

Elliott Sadler and Scott Riggs have not been any better this season, and the unrestricted, intermediate speedways are the tracks on which Evernham has struggled the most. Perhaps their fortunes will improve next season when the series converts to the COT full time, but for the remainder of this season, the new body style will give them their best results and they should be avoided in the old-style car.