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During Saturday night's Bank of America 500, the top 12 might need to guard more against the Nextel Cup Series' second-place driver than the first-place one.
If they're not careful, Jimmie Johnson could use Lowe's Motor Speedway -- a place he's turned into his personal playground -- to vault to the top of the standings and stay there until the Champion's Banquet in New York City.
With five career LMS wins and two runner-up finishes in 2006, Johnson has racked up easily the most impressive stats at the 1.5-mile Concord track.
Since 2005, Johnson's the only driver in the series with an average Driver Rating higher than 100 (121.0), the only one with an Average Running Position less than 10 (7.5) and the only one who has spent more than 80 percent of the total laps run at LMS in the top 15 (89.6).
Below is a breakdown of Johnson's tremendous LMS run since 2005 (NASCAR's Loop Data statistics started in 2005):
| Date | Finish | Avg. Running Pos. | Driver Rating | Fastest Laps | % Laps / Top 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2005 | 1 | 7.8 | 127.0 | 24 | 88.0 |
| Oct. 2005 | 1 | 13.9 | 101.7 | 9 | 72.3 |
| May 2006 | 2 | 4.6 | 128.8 | 43 | 98.0 |
| Oct. 2006 | 2 | 5.3 | 126.4 | 28 | 100.0 |
| May 2007 | 10 | 6.2 | 121.1 | 70 | 88.8 |
You know the field's in trouble when Johnson's statistically worst race was one of his wins (Oct. 2005).
But what should really unnerve those battling for a championship are their own past performances at LMS.
Only four of the 12 drivers in the Chase for the Nextel Cup rank in the top 10 in Driver Rating at LMS -- and none of those four are within 200 points of first place.
Of those within 200 points of first (Jeff Gordon, Johnson, Clint Bowyer and Tony Stewart), first-place Gordon has struggled most of late at LMS. In the last five races, Gordon has suffered five DNFs.
| Date | Finish | Avg. Running Pos. | Driver Rating | Fastest Laps | % Laps / Top 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2005 | 30 | 9.7 | 100.7 | 21 | 67.0 |
| Oct. 2005 | 38 | 36.0 | 63.1 | 4 | 13.4 |
| May 2006 | 36 | 19.0 | 64.2 | 3 | 41.8 |
| Oct. 2006 | 24 | 9.9 | 97.6 | 30 | 77.2 |
| May 2007 | 41 | 35.3 | 56.0 | 6 | 11.3 |
Statistically, LMS is Gordon's worst track since 2005. A quick breakdown:
|   | Lowest | Track | Second-Lowest | Track |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver Rating | 76.3 | Lowe's | 83.7 | Homestead-Miami |
| Avg. Running Pos. | 22.0 | Lowe's | 17.8 | Indianapolis |
| % Laps / Top 15 | 41.9 | Lowe's | 51.4 | Homestead-Miami |
Stewart and Bowyer also have struggled at LMS since 2005 (or 2006 in Bowyer's case). In the four LMS races prior to his sixth-place finish this May, Stewart failed to crack the top 10:
| Date | Finish | Avg. Running Pos. | Driver Rating | Fastest Laps | % Laps / Top 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2005 | 24 | 17.0 | 73.6 | 1 | 37.8 |
| Oct. 2005 | 25 | 14.8 | 95.5 | 31 | 53.6 |
| May 2006 | 42 | 40.6 | 31.9 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Oct. 2006 | 13 | 21.7 | 64.2 | 0 | 24.3 |
| May 2007 | 6 | 6.8 | 115.4 | 24 | 88.8 |
In three races at LMS, Bowyer has yet to crack the top 10:
| Date | Finish | Avg. Running Pos. | Driver Rating | Fastest Laps | % Laps / Top 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2006 | 19 | 24.1 | 59.1 | 0 | 12.5 |
| Oct. 2006 | 23 | 14.6 | 89.6 | 7 | 54.8 |
| May 2007 | 29 | 33.3 | 34.1 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Pos. | Driver | Avg. Finish | Avg. Place |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jimmie Johnson | 3.2 | 7.549 |
| 2. | Mark Martin | 15.6 | 11.377 |
| 3. | Kasey Kahne | 14.8 | 12.908 |
| 4. | Carl Edwards | 7.8 | 15.174 |
| 5. | J.J. Yeley | 17.0 | 15.275 |
| 6. | Casey Mears | 15.2 | 15.381 |
| 7. | Ricky Rudd | 17.0 | 15.450 |
| 8. | Kyle Busch | 27.6 | 15.916 |
| 9. | Scott Riggs | 20.4 | 16.126 |
| 10. | Jeremy Mayfield | 13.8 | 16.786 |
| 13. | Jeff Burton | 13.8 | 17.438 |
| 15. | Matt Kenseth | 18.8 | 18.020 |
| 16. | Denny Hamlin | 13.5 | 18.233 |
| 20. | Tony Stewart | 22.0 | 20.185 |
| 23. | Kevin Harvick | 23.0 | 21.068 |
| 27. | Jeff Gordon | 33.8 | 21.986 |
| 30. | Clint Bowyer | 23.7 | 24.030 |
| 32. | Martin Truex Jr. | 18.8 | 24.675 |
| 37. | Kurt Busch | 29.6 | 25.440 |
| Pos. | Driver | Avg. Fin. | High Rating | Avg. Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | J. Johnson | 3.2 | 128.8 | 121.0 |
| 2. | K. Kahne | 14.8 | 143.6 | 96.4 |
| 3. | M. Martin | 15.6 | 114.0 | 95.8 |
| 4. | Ky. Busch | 27.6 | 105.6 | 90.6 |
| 5. | G. Biffle | 19.2 | 116.5 | 88.3 |
| 6. | C. Edwards | 7.8 | 101.4 | 87.9 |
| 7. | M. Kenseth | 18.8 | 120.2 | 87.6 |
| 8. | Dale Jr. | 19.6 | 117.5 | 86.3 |
| 9. | B. Vickers | 19.0 | 115.7 | 84.7 |
| 10. | C. Mears | 15.2 | 110.8 | 84.1 |
| 13. | J. Burton | 13.8 | 111.5 | 80.2 |
| 19. | D. Hamlin | 13.5 | 102.1 | 76.6 |
| 20. | J. Gordon | 33.8 | 100.7 | 76.3 |
| 21. | T. Stewart | 22.0 | 115.4 | 76.1 |
| 27. | Ku. Busch | 29.6 | 123.4 | 68.9 |
| 29. | K. Harvick | 23.0 | 92.5 | 67.2 |
| 31. | C. Bowyer | 23.7 | 89.6 | 60.9 |
| 33. | M. Truex Jr. | 18.8 | 72.3 | 60.6 |
| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | +1 | Jeff Gordon | 5690 | Leader |
| 2. | -1 | Jimmie Johnson | 5681 | -9 |
| 3. | -- | Clint Bowyer | 5627 | -63 |
| 4. | -- | Tony Stewart | 5536 | -154 |
| 5. | -- | Kevin Harvick | 5488 | -202 |
| 6. | +1 | Carl Edwards | 5485 | -205 |
| 7. | +2 | Kurt Busch | 5475 | -215 |
| 8. | -2 | Kyle Busch | 5430 | -260 |
| 9. | +3 | Denny Hamlin | 5428 | -262 |
| 10. | -2 | Martin Truex Jr. | 5390 | -300 |
| 11. | -- | Matt Kenseth | 5372 | -318 |
| 12. | -2 | Jeff Burton | 5354 | -336 |
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