Fantasy Preview: M'ville

Identifying a favorite at Martinsville is not difficult. Just pick one of the drivers currently in a Hendrick Motorsports Chevy. Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have combined to win seven of the last nine races on this track, and one of the other drivers who took the trophy in the other two events has since retired.

Only Rusty Wallace in 2004 and Tony Stewart in 2006 have been able to momentarily forestall Hendrick's domination.

When Gordon and Johnson miss, it's not by much and between them they have a combined average finish of slightly more that third in the last three years. In the last four races, they swept the top five, and they finished first and second in a door-handle-to-door-handle contest that wasn't settled until the checkers were in the air. If you can afford them, both drivers should be on your roster because no matter how expensive they are, when they finish first and second again this fall, your salary cap is going to rise.

With each passing week, it's looking like Gordon is destined to win the championship. If the old points system was still in use, the conclusion would be foregone since the No. 24 would have a 498-point advantage over Johnson. Resetting the points only prolongs the drama, but after Gordon won back-to-back races at Talladega Superspeedway and Lowe's Motor Speedway, he will inevitably build up an equally impressive margin in the short time he has remaining. Three victories in a row is difficult task by modern NASCAR standards, but it will further establish Gordon's mystique.

If Gordon is too expensive to fit your roster, however, there are several strong options to go along with Johnson. If you want to stay in the Hendrick Motorsports family, Kyle Busch finished fourth here in the spring and three of his last four races have ended in top-10 results. Last week, he showed maturity and an ability to look at the big picture when he raced Gordon hard but clean in the closing laps of the Bank of America 500. All season long we've been saying he would be a great value once he matured. Martinsville, however, allows for a little more bumping and banging, so Busch can turn up the aggression level some and still expect to come home in the top five.

Casey Mears is the least attractive of the Hendrick 'mates with only one top-10 in nine previous starts on this track, but this organization has been so dominant in the last three years, with a top-five in 50 percent of their starts and a top-10 in two-thirds of their attempts that it is hard to fathom that he will continue to struggle for long.

Finally, the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin round out the favorites. Stewart is the only active driver to win at Martinsville since the beginning of 2003 and he enters the weekend with a four-race top-10 streak on this paperclip-shaped oval. In addition to his victory last spring, he finished second the previous fall and he's highly motivated to win because it seems that is the only way he can make up any points on Gordon.

Hamlin is a flat-track master who has fallen on hard times recently. He's run well nearly every week of the Chase, but luck has not been on his side. Ironically, the only track on which he's truly struggled during the past month was the similarly flat track of New Hampshire International Speedway and he finished 15th in the Sylvania 300. But he entered that weekend with a seven-race top-10 streak that should carry more weight in your decision this week than his recent struggles.

Dark Horse Day
Picking dark horses is always tricky, because everything has to click to finish in the top 10. After all, 33 drivers fail to do that every week.

But skill trumps power on the short tracks. With straightaways measuring only 800 feet in length, it's hard to scoot out too much of an advantage before the tight-radius turns come around to slow the driver, so navigating those is more important. Because skill is at such a premium on this little bull ring, some interesting faces have turned up at the front of the pack in recent years. (Continued)