Fantasy Preview: Texas

Statistically, Atlanta Motor Speedway should have been one of the biggest hurdles for the Chase contenders. In three previous seasons, the drivers competing for the Cup finished well off the pace there with a 24.1 average finish in 2004, a 17.5 average in 2005 and a 16.8 average in 2006, but seven of the top-10 drivers in the Pep Boys Auto 500 beat those odds as Chase contenders. Moreover, two of the drivers who finished badly -- Martin Truex Jr. in 31st and Denny Hamlin in 24th -- did so as the result of an accident on the next-to-last restart, and if not for water in the No. 11's fuel system, they may have virtually swept the top 10.

Texas Motor Speedway has only been on the Chase schedule for two years, but early indications are that is a much kinder place for the playoff hopefuls. In 2005, the 10 contenders finished slightly better than 13th on average. Last year, they finished slightly better than 14th and in both seasons, six out of the top-10 drivers were battling for the Cup.

The Chase contenders are in the top 12 in points for a reason, and with more than one-third of the schedule contested on the similarly-configured, 1.5- and two-mile tracks of Atlanta Motor Speedway, Lowe's Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Chicagoland Speedway, Michigan International Speedway and California Speedway, a team's strength and record on the unrestricted, intermediate speedways is of utmost importance.

Expect the Chasers to dominate the top 10 again this week, and that is where most of your favorites are going to come from.

The three racers atop the grid have yet to stumble. Jeff Gordon -- with an average finish of 4.3 during the Chase -- Jimmie Johnson (5.9) and Clint Bowyer (6.1) have yet to finish worse than 14th in the first seven races of the playoffs and with each passing week it appears that the champion will not use a single mulligan in the final 10 races.

That means the only concern for these three teams has to do with salary cap restrictions, and Gordon added another $2.75 to his price tag in the Superstar Cap Challenge, raising his worth to $133.82. Johnson has also nearly priced himself out of the market by adding approximately $12.00 to his salary cap with back-to-back wins at Martinsville Speedway and Atlanta. If either of these two drivers is on your roster, leave them there for the week because they will gain value again during the Dickies 500, but concentrate on less expensive picks for the remainder of your lineup.

The Rest of the Field

NASCAR has the drama they wanted in terms of a dash to the championship. The Craftsman Truck Series has one of the most dramatic finales going with Mike Skinner and Ron Hornaday swapping the lead on a weekly basis and the Cup series is just as tight between Hendrick Motorsports teammates Gordon and Johnson.

The rest of the field is lying in wait.

Bowyer continues to relish his role as underdog and he is not so far out of first that he can't pounce if the leaders both have a problem in the final three races. For his part, however, all he can do is record strong finishes and keep the margin to first manageable. He's held up his end of the bargain with one victory, two more runner-up finishes, five top-10s and a worst result of 12th in the first seven Chase races. Some of his strongest runs have come on the "cookie-cutter" tracks and he actually crossed the finish line first at Kansas a few weeks ago when Greg Biffle ran out of fuel on the final lap under caution. Until he stumbles, it's hard to bet against him.

Last week before the Pep Boys Auto 500, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Truex each had exceptional runs in practice, but we were a little skeptical about their chances for victory because of the unreliability of the Dale Earnhardt Inc. engine program this year. They had plenty of horsepower under their hoods in the closing laps and would have finished in the top five if not for separate accidents at the end of the race. Texas has always been one of Earnhardt's favorite tracks. He won his first attempt on this 1.5-mile speedway in 2000 and except for accidents in 2002 and this spring, he would have finished 12th or better in every race. Truex has been nearly as strong. In four previous attempts, he's swept the top 15.

There had been 12 different Texas winners in 12 races until Jeff Burton visited Victory Lane this spring. Notably, he was also the inaugural winner in 1997 and he was a bit of a long shot for the Samsung 500 due to an average finish of 21st in the intervening 11 events. His Chase got off to a rocky start with an 18th at New Hampshire International Speedway, a 36th at Kansas and a 43rd at Talladega Superspeedway, but that means he has nothing to lose this week. In the last two "cookie-cutter" races, Burton finished fourth at Lowe's and was fifth last week at Atlanta.

A truer dark horse may be found in Brian Vickers. When he's qualified on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks he's been strong and his 14th-place finish at Texas this spring was followed by a fifth at Lowe's in the Coca-Cola 600. Last week, he added his third top-15 on this type of track with a 10th at Atlanta, but he doesn't come without risk. Vickers failed to qualify four times in the first eight "cookie-cutter" races, so make certain you have a well-defined backup plan in place.