Fantasy Preview: Phoenix

Kansas Speedway, Lowe's Motor Speedway, Atlanta Motor Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway were "cookie-cutter" tracks that dominated the Chase schedule, just as that type of track dominated the first 26 races. But with two events remaining on the calendar, it's time to turn your attention to two distinctive tracks.

Phoenix International Raceway is a short, flat track, and while it has striking similarities to New Hampshire International Speedway and Martinsville Speedway, it has a rather unique kink to the backstretch. Several years ago, there was an opening in the wall that allowed haulers to cross into the infield. That hole has been closed up and a tunnel has been added, but the shape of the straightaway still makes for a challenging configuration. Next week, drivers head to the progressively banked course of Homestead-Miami Speedway, and that track has no strong comparatives whatsoever on the NASCAR circuit.

Same Old, Same Old
If you've been riding Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson's bandwagon, there is very little incentive to climb down. Three consecutive victories by Johnson has raised his salary cap to a nearly prohibitive level of $100.15 in the Superstar Cap Challenge for new owners, but if he is already on your roster, there are few drivers worth firing the championship contender to hire. As pricey as he is, he has not yet reached Gordon's price tag of $135.96, but one of these drivers should still be on your roster regardless of expense.

Last week, we predicted that Johnson would surpass Gordon to take the points lead, and he did. We also said that Gordon would likely carry the day at Phoenix, and we stick by that assertion as well. With only two races remaining, the driver of the No. 24 will almost certainly need to run the table in terms of victories to have a shot at winning the Nextel Cup trophy and he is going to do his part on Sunday. This spring may have marked the first time he won at Phoenix in the senior series, but he's always been strong there and that is his second-best track in terms of career average finishes. In 17 starts, he has an average of 8.2.

Johnson is not far off the mark at Phoenix. He has never finished worse than 15th there, and while he has yet to win, he came close with second-place finishes in the fall races of 2003 and 2006. For that matter, being winless on a track did not keep him from taking the checkers at Texas last week, and if he gets track position late in the Checker Auto Parts 500, he could very well add a fourth consecutive victory to his record.

By his Phoenix numbers, Kevin Harvick is the next logical favorite because he is the only other driver in the field to have three consecutive top-10s on the 1-mile desert oval. Last year, he swept Victory Lane in the Cup Series and that came after he won the Busch companion race in the spring and finished second in Busch in the fall. This spring, he finished ninth in the Busch race and was 10th in the Cup event, so fantasy owners will know what to do with him by Saturday night.

Carl Edwards has been consistently strong on the short, flat tracks with a 12-race top-15 streak to his credit at Phoenix, New Hampshire and Martinsville combined. He's been even stronger on this particular track with a worst result of only 11th in his last five attempts. Until a freak mishap with a chain that holds the anti-sway bar in place last week, the only poor finish Edwards experienced during the playoffs came when he was swept into a Tony Stewart accident at Kansas, so he is looking to rebound.

Road Ringers
If you want to make room for either Gordon or Johnson on your roster, you are going to have to take some risks on inexpensive drivers. You could be in for a pleasant surprise, because two former road-racing aces are going to attempt to make the Checker Auto Parts 500k.

Both Jacques Villeneuve and Patrick Carpentier have to qualify on time since the No. 27 Bill Davis Racing and No. 10 Gillette Evernham Motorsports teams are outside the top 35 in points. But if they make the show, this is actually a very good place for them to get oval-track experience prior to the 2008 season. The short, flat tracks behave like road courses more than any other oval because drivers have to slow down before entering the corner and then accelerate hard at the apex. This is second nature to these drivers.

That was proved by Juan Montoya at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this summer in the Brickyard 400 when he finished second on the 2.5-mile flat track and he reasserted the claim at Martinsville a few weeks ago with his first short-track top-10 on that flat half-miler. Keep these three drivers in mind during practice and if their average speed is in the top 20, they just may finish there.

More traditional dark horses may come in the form of short-timers Johnny Sauter and Tony Raines. Both of these drivers are in danger of being left without a seat when the game of musical chairs ends at the end of the season and they need to prove their strength in order to capture a good Nationwide or Craftsman Truck Series ride next year. The Gene Haas and Hall of Fame Racing teams have operated as satellites for Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing, respectively, and those have been the two biggest powerhouses in the Car of Tomorrow events. That strength has trickled down to their associates and Sauter, Raines and the inactive Jeff Green have each finished in the top 15 on the short, flat tracks this year. Also keep an eye on Jeremy Mayfield. He has secured his ride for next year in one of Haas' cars, but he's no less determined to run well.