Fantasy Preview: H'stead

Hopefully, you are in the same situation as Jimmie Johnson, with a reasonably comfortable points lead over the others in your fantasy league. If that is the case, then you can play this week conservatively to maintain that position. If, however, you are in Jeff Gordon's shoes, you will have to roll the dice a bit and take drivers that your competition has overlooked, and then hope they produce.

Most of you, however, are in the same position as Clint Bowyer and the remainder of the field, so this race is for pride only. This is one last chance to win before the 2008 season. Unfortunately, since NASCAR only visits Homestead-Miami Speedway once per year, finding the right driver is more difficult than at most points during the season. The drivers face the same challenge, since this progressively banked course is unique in stock-car racing. Until this spring -- when Las Vegas Motor Speedway was reconfigured -- no other speedway measuring more than a mile in length boasted progressive banking.

The Proud Few
Toss away the stats from the first four races on this track. From 1999 through 2002 this course had flat corners that encouraged single-file racing. In 2003, the track added graduated banking that becomes steeper the closer one gets to the outside wall. The lower groove is shorter, but the upper groove allows a driver to carry more momentum onto the straightaways and the advantage evens out over a complete lap. Some of the best racing of the year comes in this final event.

Even with only one trip to Homestead each year, a few drivers have managed to stand out from the competition. Two of these racers will certainly come as no surprise, since Johnson and Gordon have been dominating every track recently. Despite earning only a single finish outside the top 10 each in the past four races, they probably will get dumped from most rosters this week because of their astronomical salary caps, but in straight up games, they are going to remain the class of the field for one more race.

Greg Biffle will also fail to catch any of your competition by surprise after he won the last three races here. The driver of the No. 16 struggled in the first progressively banked race in 2003 to finish 35th, but he must have learned something to dominate the track the way he has since. Biffle may be less of a sure thing than most would believe, however, because he does not have the same car in which he won last season. That Ford was destroyed in a tire test at Vegas earlier this year, and he is going to have to start from scratch. If he shows promise in practice, you'll know he found the right setup notes.

Kevin Harvick is not necessarily a name one associates with Homestead, but that could change this week. He has not yet won on this track, but he came close in 2003 with a second-place finish to Bobby Labonte. Since then, he's swept the top-10, with an average result of 6.3 in the last four races. He certainly won't win any good sportsmanship awards this season after intentionally swerving into Gordon late in the Checker Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix, but that altercation underscores just how badly he wants to finish up front and fantasy owners can't ask for more from their drivers.

Carl Edwards is another driver who has swept the top 15 at Homestead. His first effort on this track in 2004 resulted in a 14th, which was followed by a fourth in 2005 and an eighth last year. His 2005 finish was part of a near sweep by Roush Racing when he followed Biffle, Mark Martin and Matt Kenseth across the line, and that kind of consistency makes the organization an even greater threat this week.

30-something
NASCAR is filled with interesting numbers, and there are two drivers in the field who improved by exactly 30 positions between their first and second starts. As impressive as that is on its face, they also finished second and third last year.

First-year driver Martin Truex Jr. ran a pre-rookie race here in 2004 and struggled to finish 32nd. He capped off his remarkable freshman season last year with a second in the Ford 400 and looked like he was capable of winning most of afternoon. His first Nextel Cup career victory came this season on the high banks of Dover, so you can expect him to run the upper groove most of the day and finish in the top five.

Denny Hamlin was still getting started in the fall 2005 race when he finished 33rd. Last year, he ended the day third and with threes factoring heavily into the equation, the third time might be the charm. It's been 18 races since he won at New Hampshire this summer, and that victory capped off a strong run of 10 top-10s in 12 events. Since then, he has only six such finishes in his last 18 attempts, but this team is better than the record shows. Watch him in practice and if he shows promise, he should get the start.

The driver most likely to gain 30 positions over his 2006 result this week is Casey Mears, which would give him a second-place finish. He was strong on this course with Chip Ganassi Racing power under the hood, finishing fifth in 2005 and running nearly as well last year before he blew an engine late in the race. With the reliable Hendrick Motorsports engine package propelling him down the straightways, his odds have only improved.