Track Smack: Drama has pretty much played out

1. Do we have a fix on who'll be legitimate Chase for the Nextel Cup contenders, or are these last two races before the cutoff gonna tell the tale?

Mark Aumann: I know Junior and Ryan Newman aren't officially eliminated, but I think the top 12 is secure. I can't see any reason to assume Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch or Martin Truex Jr. will have two consecutive awful finishes at this point.

Dave Rodman: It's not like the Chase is any different than the other races -- other than the pressure -- but the scary thing is that Jeff Gordon's car was abysmal at Bristol. And he and Steve Letarte and the crew had engineered a pretty effective piece, up until the crash.

David Caraviello: The way Kurt Busch has been driving recently, he's taken some of the mystery out of it. Every year, this thing has become less and less dramatic. Guys are figuring it out.

Dave Rodman: The fact that one of those guys on the bubble might stumble creates some real drama -- but you're right, Mark -- I don't know to what degree. Guys going for wins are gonna be the thing these two weeks, I think.

Mark Aumann: The sad thing? The difference between 10th and 11th this season is one point. Imagine the excitement NASCAR could be generating right now if it had left it alone.

David Caraviello: Remember that first year, when Jeremy Mayfield had to win to get in, and how everyone was at the edge of their seats all night? Compare that to last year, when the whole thing was decided with 100 laps to go at Richmond.

Dave Rodman: I do remember the deal last year being pretty lukewarm, as far as excitement.

David Caraviello: Drivers and teams have learned that you beat this thing by being conservative. Sure, everybody wants to win to get bonus points. But none of the guys on the bubble is going to risk their position.

Dave Rodman: As conservative as you can be to not finish 25th. You still have to run hard -- just not maniacally so.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, the television folks were trying to hype last year's Richmond race as much as possible, but there just wasn't much drama there. And it's going to be even more of a letdown if something unusual doesn't happen at Fontana.

David Caraviello: I remember that, Mark. The TV guys were carrying on as if the thing was still in doubt until the end, which it clearly was not. I remember writers looking at each other with plenty of laps left and saying, "Wow, it's over."

Mark Aumann: And California is the perfect track on which to play things conservatively. Unless you blow up or have tire problems, you've got enough track to stay out of harm's way.

Dave Rodman: It's funny -- and don't ask me what I've been thinking of, but the lack of any nail-biting drama coming into Richmond this year never occurred to me -- but you're absolutely right.

David Caraviello: There are 158 points, I think, between 12th and 13th. That's brutally hard to make up in just two races.

Dave Rodman: Barring a disaster for the 1, 2 or 29 at California -- Richmond will only be a race for the win.

David Caraviello: But in all honesty guys, this thing already looks decided. The top-12 guys now are almost certainly going to be the guys in the Chase. There may be zero drama in Richmond this year.

Dave Rodman: As much as everyone is harping on bonus points for wins -- when you have 10 more races to make something happen, 10 points doesn't seem like much. Though we all know, it can be.

Mark Aumann: Well, it's certainly a fairer way to do it than the five-point steppingstone they've used in the past. At least wins account for any advantage you get at the start.

Dave Rodman: Oh yeah, no doubt. And it has created some excitement at the races, like at Watkins Glen.

Mark Aumann: I know the expansion from 10 to 12 teams wasn't specifically related to Junior missing the Chase two years ago, but I wonder what the folks in Daytona Beach and New York are going to do next. The Junior Nation is a huge portion of the fan base that doesn't have a rooting interest in the last 10 weeks.

Dave Rodman: Mark, bite your tongue. Don't even think that.

Mark Aumann: Again, the champion will be the one guy who makes the fewest mistakes during the last 10 races, not the guy who wins the most races.

David Caraviello: Exactly -- playing it conservative wins again.

Mark Aumann: It's just the nature of NASCAR's point system. A bad finish hurts you much more than a good finish can help you. (Continued)