Track Smack: Drama has pretty much played out

1. Do we have a fix on who'll be legitimate Chase for the Nextel Cup contenders, or are these last two races before the cutoff gonna tell the tale?

Mark Aumann: I know Junior and Ryan Newman aren't officially eliminated, but I think the top 12 is secure. I can't see any reason to assume Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch or Martin Truex Jr. will have two consecutive awful finishes at this point.

Dave Rodman: It's not like the Chase is any different than the other races -- other than the pressure -- but the scary thing is that Jeff Gordon's car was abysmal at Bristol. And he and Steve Letarte and the crew had engineered a pretty effective piece, up until the crash.

David Caraviello: The way Kurt Busch has been driving recently, he's taken some of the mystery out of it. Every year, this thing has become less and less dramatic. Guys are figuring it out.

Dave Rodman: The fact that one of those guys on the bubble might stumble creates some real drama -- but you're right, Mark -- I don't know to what degree. Guys going for wins are gonna be the thing these two weeks, I think.

Mark Aumann: The sad thing? The difference between 10th and 11th this season is one point. Imagine the excitement NASCAR could be generating right now if it had left it alone.

David Caraviello: Remember that first year, when Jeremy Mayfield had to win to get in, and how everyone was at the edge of their seats all night? Compare that to last year, when the whole thing was decided with 100 laps to go at Richmond.

Dave Rodman: I do remember the deal last year being pretty lukewarm, as far as excitement.

David Caraviello: Drivers and teams have learned that you beat this thing by being conservative. Sure, everybody wants to win to get bonus points. But none of the guys on the bubble is going to risk their position.

Dave Rodman: As conservative as you can be to not finish 25th. You still have to run hard -- just not maniacally so.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, the television folks were trying to hype last year's Richmond race as much as possible, but there just wasn't much drama there. And it's going to be even more of a letdown if something unusual doesn't happen at Fontana.

David Caraviello: I remember that, Mark. The TV guys were carrying on as if the thing was still in doubt until the end, which it clearly was not. I remember writers looking at each other with plenty of laps left and saying, "Wow, it's over."

Mark Aumann: And California is the perfect track on which to play things conservatively. Unless you blow up or have tire problems, you've got enough track to stay out of harm's way.

Dave Rodman: It's funny -- and don't ask me what I've been thinking of, but the lack of any nail-biting drama coming into Richmond this year never occurred to me -- but you're absolutely right.

David Caraviello: There are 158 points, I think, between 12th and 13th. That's brutally hard to make up in just two races.

Dave Rodman: Barring a disaster for the 1, 2 or 29 at California -- Richmond will only be a race for the win.

David Caraviello: But in all honesty guys, this thing already looks decided. The top-12 guys now are almost certainly going to be the guys in the Chase. There may be zero drama in Richmond this year.

Dave Rodman: As much as everyone is harping on bonus points for wins -- when you have 10 more races to make something happen, 10 points doesn't seem like much. Though we all know, it can be.

Mark Aumann: Well, it's certainly a fairer way to do it than the five-point steppingstone they've used in the past. At least wins account for any advantage you get at the start.

Dave Rodman: Oh yeah, no doubt. And it has created some excitement at the races, like at Watkins Glen.

Mark Aumann: I know the expansion from 10 to 12 teams wasn't specifically related to Junior missing the Chase two years ago, but I wonder what the folks in Daytona Beach and New York are going to do next. The Junior Nation is a huge portion of the fan base that doesn't have a rooting interest in the last 10 weeks.

Dave Rodman: Mark, bite your tongue. Don't even think that.

Mark Aumann: Again, the champion will be the one guy who makes the fewest mistakes during the last 10 races, not the guy who wins the most races.

David Caraviello: Exactly -- playing it conservative wins again.

Mark Aumann: It's just the nature of NASCAR's point system. A bad finish hurts you much more than a good finish can help you.

2. Guys, it's Labor Day weekend and the ghosts of Southern 500s past are roaming. Will it ever get any easier to accept going West for Labor Day?

David Caraviello: Strange that the nation's second-largest market will be forever overshadowed by a tiny town in the Pee Dee region of South Carolina. But at least for one weekend a year, it is.

Dave Rodman: Even the California Speedway Girls can't overcome that.

Helton and Hilton

Yeah, just try getting Paris to Darlington any time of the year.

Mark Aumann: To me, it's like moving the Green Bay Packers to Los Angeles. Why mess with tradition?

Dave Rodman: Too late -- it's already messed up. I honest to God wish it would consider that it was a gambit that failed; and return tradition to the fold -- from which it's been banished in many cases, lately.

Mark Aumann: For some reason, NASCAR has this annoying tendency to downplay its history. I can't understand why it doesn't embrace the things that made it what it is today, rather than distancing itself from its past.

David Caraviello: Thing is, in Cal Speedway's defense, the Labor Day weekend race actually draws pretty well. They haven't sold it out, but they've come close. The February race is the problem there.

Dave Rodman: If you just want to be in California, schedule that race any time -- it doesn't seem like they'll do any better with it. Put Darlington's sole date on Labor Day weekend and just keeping adding a few rows of seats a year.

David Caraviello: Nothing against New Hampshire, but it really ought to start the Chase in Fontana. Get the race off Labor Day weekend, get rid of the Darlington comparisons and start the playoffs in a big, splashy media market.

Mark Aumann: Well, running that race later in the fall would accomplish a few things. One, it might not be 100-plus degrees on race day. Two, since L.A. doesn't have an NFL team, you're not going head-to-head in the market. Three, it would give you a major market presence in the Chase.

Dave Rodman: But we were talking about starting the Chase with it -- not just burying the weak sister somewhere else in the Chase.

Mark Aumann: I like the track, I like the location, I just don't like the fact that they took away the Southern 500. You're talking about an event that preceded the Daytona 500 -- on the calendar and for a while, in stature.

Dave Rodman: Absolutely nothing against NHIS -- but you're by God right. If that wouldn't do it, nothing would. Keep it in the ISC family and flip two of its races -- take your pick which one to take out of the Chase and replace with Fontana.

David Caraviello: A certain segment of the fan base is always going to view Fontana skeptically because of the Darlington issue. But Darlington's doing pretty well where it is right now -- much better than when it raced on Labor Day.

Mark Aumann: The Masters is held in a little southern town and attendance there probably isn't half of a normal tournament, but I don't see the PGA moving it from Augusta anytime soon.

Dave Rodman: You're right, DC -- that is something that's a little scary about the new, albeit short tradition it has begun. That Mother's Day Saturday race is a knockout, so more power to Chris Browning and the gang.

David Caraviello: And the problem in Fontana isn't Labor Day, it's February. The week after the Daytona 500 has traditionally been a tough sell. Just ask the gang that used to run Rockingham.

Dave Rodman: Uh, DC, that's Chris and the gang. They know all about the power of the calendar and the impact of dates -- and they've still made a winner out of Mother's Day weekend.

Mark Aumann: Well, at least the chance of rain in Fontana on Sunday should be quite a bit lower than in the greater Florence area. I've sat through a few soggy Southern 500s in my time.

Dave Rodman: To your earlier comment, Mark -- the PGA Tour has more respect for tradition, apparently, than to run roughshod over them.

3. How intricate is the situation Dale Earnhardt Inc. finds itself in, filling the seats of its Nos. 8 and 01 cars in the coming days?

Mark Aumann: You really have to wonder, when the two teams began discussing a merger, was this considered the "best-case" scenario? Or has DEI's hand been forced because it couldn't land a Kyle Busch-type driver for the 8?

Mark Martin Truex Jr.

David Caraviello: This happening this late in the game, Mark, you'd have to think its hand had been forced and it's just trying to fill seats.

Dave Rodman: When you look long-range, though -- it could be in a sparkling position: Having solid veterans and developmental guys in there for a year -- and could it get a marquee name a year from now?

Mark Aumann: Somebody said Mark Martin may be the perfect short-term solution, because he may be one of the only drivers who could follow Junior in the 8 and not be booed every weekend.

Dave Rodman: I think the merger was a huge gain for DEI and extra lifeboats for the Titanic-type salvation of at least some of Ginn's personnel. Of course, a bunch of Ginn employees still went down with the ship, but if Ginn went out completely, it would have been worse.

Mark Aumann: But Dave, if it's losing Bud and the Army, where's the advantage?

Dave Rodman: If it's losing the Army, I don't think that's until 2009.

David Caraviello: I agree with you, Mark. But the 8 car won't be challenging for a Chase berth if DEI is splitting it with two drivers.

Mark Aumann: And isn't there a pretty good falloff from Junior to the likes of Aric Almirola and Regan Smith?

David Caraviello: Precipitous.

Dave Rodman: DEI has four solid race teams in place in a great set of facilities. A sponsor leaving is a relatively common occurrence -- and having a solid organization in place puts it in a better position to recover.

Mark Aumann: I don't know how you sell the fan base on "just wait until you see what we've got for you in 2009."

David Caraviello: You don't. This is a sport based on performance now, not performance years from now; which is why the driver development craze went out the window when teams realized it wasn't helping them at the moment.

Mark Aumann: You're asking an awful lot of two very raw rookies to step into those rides next season.

Dave Rodman: If that's what DEI does -- which I would hope it doesn't. J.J. Yeley deserves a shot. I think he could be a Chase contender a la Clint Bowyer or Little Martin, given the right combination.

David Caraviello: Basically, right now, DEI has one of its four cars capable of making the 2008 Chase. I'm sure sponsors are going to love that.

Mark Aumann: David, that's one of the scary things about having sponsorship dry up at the same time. It won't be easy for the folks at DEI to entice big bucks from a sponsor when you can't show them a long-term plan already in place.

Dave Rodman: Unless you can get them to buy into a plan, along with your prospective drivers, which seems like a lot to ask in a sport that needs long-term consistency and short-term results.

David Caraviello: It's a tough deal, Mark. You have to run well to entice sponsors, but without sponsors, you can't run well. Although Max Siegel has said repeatedly that DEI's sponsorship is in place for next season on all four cars.

Mark Aumann: And you're faced with trying to make some young guys grow up in a hurry in a sport that chews up and spits out inexperienced drivers.

David Caraviello: The only thing worse than never getting the big break? Getting it in a ride that's not supported well enough, and you wind up getting kicked to the curb. That's the danger.

Mark Aumann: As we said before, consistency wins championships. And most young guys just aren't consistent. Funny thing is, Joe Nemechek would probably be the perfect fit for the No. 01 in 2008 -- a solid veteran who could share time with one of the younger drivers.

Dave Rodman: But you don't think DEI would do two split-season cars, do you?

Mark Aumann: But that horse left the corral well before anybody closed the gate.

Dave Rodman: Though I think, with Martin Truex Jr. and Paul Menard, DEI might have two guys that could challenge for the Chase. I really think Truex is gonna be a Chase fixture from here on out, now that he's broken through and gotten his first one.

David Caraviello: I've got it. A split car with Martin Truex and Mark Martin. Martin and Martin in '08! Sounds like a presidential ticket.

The opinions expressed are solely of the participants.