Smack: Chase Preview

1) With the field set, could this be the best Chase on record?

Dave Rodman: Obviously, there's no way to predict this stuff -- which is why I can't believe I continue to play fantasy on NASCAR.COM -- but when you look at it -- with duos from Gibbs and Roush and trios from Hendrick and RCR -- plus Kurt Busch and Little Martin -- I'd say the prospects are fabulous.

Raygan Swan: I believe so because everyone is talking about how stiff the competition is and how it's much greater than the 2006 Chase. There are five past champions and I also believe the COT has been a factor in the competition -- and there's the Stewart factor...with Smoke back in the Chase, you're in for a wild ride!

Mark Aumann: Hard to say. I thought the lineup for the first Chase was pretty stout. I think what's changed is the depth of the top-tier teams. Where once you had half the field consisting of Roush cars, now there seem to be two or three cars from each of the top organizations. That's the biggest change.

Dave Rodman: And Gordon, also. The motif isn't going to change -- consistency at a high level, with a couple wins, is going to tell the tale. The thing is; all these qualifying teams have done well at the COT events -- so what's going to be the difference? Who blinks first, of course.

Raygan Swan: Smoke is definitely going to add something special, which could make it one of the best shows ever. You know the Chase this year has all the potential story lines for a great drama: Excitement, heartbreak, comedy. What should we call it?

Dave Rodman: A helluva duel, for starters.

Raygan Swan: Bruce Willis would play Stewart and Brad Pitt plays Jeff Gordon.

Mark Aumann: Obviously missing Stewart last season and Jeff Gordon in 2005 took away some of the feel of this being "NASCAR's 10 best drivers." But that's the beauty of the 10-driver system. Not every good team makes the postseason every year, and the original Chase format made it that much harder to get in every year. That tells you something about Matt Kenseth's consistency, doesn't it?

Dave Rodman: The only thing that would be better would be if we had a true long shot -- or David -- though you could argue Little Martin fits that bill, right?

Raygan Swan: Yep, but how heartbroken or maybe just super bummed will Bowyer be if he can't pull out a win?

Dave Rodman: He's in the Chase, and that's a pretty big consolation prize. But the movie theme is priceless. I think you're on the right track -- or tracks -- Raygs. And the subplots are great: Can Dale Jr. or Newman win? Or Biffle? Depending on how much caution these guys throw to the wind, just fascinating doesn't even begin to describe it.

Raygan Swan: Oh yeah, they definitely are in the script, but played by second-tier actors like Vince Vaughn and Ben Stiller... the Frat Pack types!

Mark Aumann: I don't go to the movies often enough to have any idea who you're talking about, Raygan. If Tom Hanks wasn't in it, I probably haven't seen it.

2) Who's in , who's out at New Hampshire? Along with the regular go or go homers, we got Sam Hornish Jr. and Boris Said. So what are their chances?

Mark Aumann: I don't see either one of those guys making the show. The COT has proven to be a unique animal, and I'm not so certain even the full-time teams -- read, Kyle Busch, for one -- have a real handle on the handling characteristics of the thing. Hornish at least will have Penske's notes, but even if this were a regular race, that's asking a lot of a guy who's never even driven New Hampshire, let alone a Cup car.

Raygan Swan: Well as long as the weather holds up, Boris Said is a pretty good qualifier.

Dave Rodman: If ol' Sam gets in, he gets three gold stars. Even Boris is going to be hard-pressed given the edge everyone else has in the COT. The one to worry about here is Scott Riggs. It appears he is literally racing for his future at GEM.

Raygan Swan: And the future looks anything but bright -- but that's just speculation. So Hornish Jr.? If he can have clean practice sessions, without incident, I think he will be fine. With the IRL in his rearview, he can focus on his future in NASCAR.

Dave Rodman: Well, despite him having four test sessions recently, I just feel like stepping up into the forum of the first Chase event -- against guys who are trying to qualify for their ninth or 10th COT event, will be too much to overcome.

Raygan Swan: Maybe Dave, but I'm optimistic. Maybe the added pressure is just what Hornish needs to push him over this ho-hum beginning in NASCAR.

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Mark Aumann: Will Hornish make at least one of the five races? Odds are pretty good. It just depends on how well he transitions to the COT. His Busch runs haven't been pretty.

Dave Rodman: It'll be good to see him try all the other COT events in the Chase -- though I bet he makes one of the five -- probably Phoenix. I may be short-selling him, because it appears they are committed to an intense test program, but at this point of the season, you would have to figure the guys that need to be making these races are in a position to be making 'em. A.J. Allmendinger is one who's shown getting more track time can pay off.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, the five-race package with Ganassi will prove beneficial for A.J. and Dave, the car Hornish is in was last driven by Kurt Busch at Phoenix in April. The car qualified sixth. And I know this likely doesn't hold much credibility with you guys but Hornish does have an ARCA pole.

Mark Aumann: I think I have an ARCA pole in the backyard somewhere. It's holding up the corner of the deck.

Dave Rodman: OK -- let me be a total provincial person for a second -- this is Nextel Cup. If he makes it, I'll kiss his ring, but for right now I think it'll be him and five others on the way home Friday evening.

Raygan Swan: We believe, we believe, we believe. OK, Dave -- if he makes the race then you owe me a big expensive meal in Dover or money for the slots!

Mark Aumann: Heck, I still owe Raygan $20 from Daytona when I couldn't pay for a round of golf with a credit card. With my luck, she'll hit the jackpot at the casino in two weeks and turn in her resignation.

Dave Rodman: Deal. Now, what I really hope happens is the rest of these silly season dominoes fall. Jeremy Mayfield has pulled some great qualifying efforts out of his hat -- but I feel like he's a lead Spartan in the re-make of "300." I'd like to get those last few spots filled, and let 'em mix it up this season to get a start on '08.

Mark Aumann: Mayfield, Raines, Stremme. Those are some veteran drivers who could give some teams consistent finishes and provide guidance for an up-and-coming driver.

Dave Rodman: Speaking of which, if Chip is going to pull the trigger with Dario -- he's missing opportunities to get him some seat time. Though for the life of me, it's hard to imagine a guy giving up the comfort of all he's ever known for getting the crap beat out of him in stock cars.

Mark Aumann: Dario's got incredible talent, but even Juan was surprised at the difficulty of the transition. Even now, Montoya still winds up making the wrong changes to the car -- which only comes with experience. I really would have liked to see Dario get his feet wet before Daytona. Otherwise, he may be in for a rude awakening.

3) If this is going to be the best Chase ever -- sheesh, of the four that's been -- what will the pivotal moment be?

Dave Rodman: No changes there. I think it's most likely to be Talladega this time, for sure. You can have a disaster, a blown engine, whatever, in any race. But there are so many unknowns at Talladega, all the proverbial bets are off.

Mark Aumann: From what I've seen, every year the Chase contenders get more and more conservative. Somebody may very well put together 10 solid top-10 finishes and have the thing clinched by Homestead.

Raygan Swan: When a Chase contender gets dumped by a non-chase driver... When JPM takes out Harvick to be exact... yipes!

Mark Aumann: Dale Earnhardt Jr. wins at Homestead and says goodbye to the No. 8.

Dave Rodman: I don't think we can even begin to quantify how bad the vision problem in the COT, vis a vis traffic, is going to be. I didn't see much reference to it, but Elliott Sadler seemed pretty concerned about it, in this week's In the Field offering.

Mark Aumann: At the same time, I'm not so certain drivers haven't gotten to the point where they drive more based on what they hear from the spotters than what they see in the mirror. Still, the idea that you can't see through the car in front of you is like being directly behind a semi on the highway and hoping nobody slams on their brakes.

Raygan Swan: Dave, Talladega is going to be pivotal because everyone will tell you it's a crap shoot there. Every team knows where they excel, what tracks they perform well at and ones they don't, but I think whoever wins 'Dega will win the Cup.

Dave Rodman: You know, back in Segment 1, I was gonna say look out for the Hendrick behemoth -- Johnson the defending champion and an on-beat Gordon -- but then I started to think about who the competition is.

Raygan Swan: Another pivotal moment will be if and when Johnson has a poor showing; he's the favorite and some expect him to run away with it since he's hit his stride again.

Mark Aumann: I'm still leaning toward somebody who hasn't shown their entire hand this season. Could one of the Childress guys be holding the Cup at the end? Wouldn't it be something to see Bowyer reel off four wins now?

Dave Rodman: No givens. You're right -- Talladega is always a crap shoot -- but with the uncertainties -- I think disaster is even more likely to occur. And I don't think the winner will necessarily win the Chase.

Raygan Swan: That said, watch out for Carl -- he's a late bloomer, things heat up for him at the end of the season. Look at the 2005 Chase.

Dave Rodman: This could be old school Talladega. Where's Bobby Hillin Jr. when you need him? Hey -- that's a place for Sam Hornish Jr. to break through.

Mark Aumann: I wonder if Richard Brickhouse ever thought about coming out of retirement.

Raygan Swan: And by late bloomer I'm not talking about the pre-pubescent C-Edwards, so don't get all spun out!