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Can Jimmie Johnson make it three in a row at Las Vegas? Loop Data suggests it's very possible.

Shop Talk: Las Vegas

By NASCAR.COM
March 8, 2007
11:17 AM EST
type size: + -

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- How must Jimmie Johnson be feeling right now? Or Matt Kenseth, for that matter?

Their bread-and-butter track -- as winners of the last four races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway -- has vanished. Was it one of those Las Vegas desert mirages?

In its stead is a higher-banked, speedster's dream. The Las Vegas track that Nextel Cup Series drivers once knew is no more.

Here are the particulars:

• Banking in the corners jumped from 12 degrees to 20 degrees.

• Banking on the backstretch went from three degrees to nine degrees.

• Pit road has been moved 275 feet closer to the grandstands.

• A new Neon Garage has been built.

• A new media center has been built.

What all that adds up to is anyone's guess. There is some data to work from when statistically analyzing this race. And the data says this track will be much, much faster than the "old" version.

Loop Logic

Compare last year's final practice times with this past January's testing times. The results are startling as the speeds jumped considerably.

Final Practice Speeds

2006 UAW-DaimlerChrysler 400
Pos. Driver Make Speed
1. Kyle Busch Chevrolet 170.089
2. Matt Kenseth Ford 169.646
3. Kurt Busch Dodge 168.988
4. Carl Edwards Ford 168.845
5. Jeff Burton Chevrolet 168.787
6. J.J. Yeley Chevrolet 168.761
7. Greg Biffle Ford 168.560
8. Dale Jarrett Ford 168.397
9. Kasey Kahne Dodge 168.261
10. Mark Martin Ford 168.010

Now check out the speeds from January's testing. Below are the numbers from the morning session on the first day, which were the slowest of the two-day/four-session test.

January Testing Speeds

Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Pos. Driver Make Speed
1. Scott Riggs Dodge 183.551
2. Tony Stewart Chevrolet 183.492
3. Kasey Kahne Dodge 183.144
4. Kevin Harvick Chevrolet 182.890
5. Dave Blaney Toyota 182.760
6. Jeff Burton Chevrolet 182.710
7. Greg Biffle Ford 182.611
8. Jimmie Johnson Chevrolet 182.587
9. Kevin Harvick Chevrolet 182.543
10. Kasey Kahne Dodge 182.476

So, during testing's slowest day, the speeds were still more than 13-mph higher than last year's final practice on the lower-banked track.

For the record, on testing's fastest day -- the afternoon (drafting) session on Day 2 -- Elliott Sadler topped the speed charts with a mark of 188.772 mph. That's an 18-mph jump from 2006's final practice.

Of course, testing won't tell the whole story. It fails to take into account race conditions, pit stops and natural competitiveness. A good testing speed is almost like going undefeated in the preseason. It's nice, but the regular season is where it counts.

NASCAR does have some of those stats to look at as well, albeit not on the Cup side. Last September, the Craftsman Truck Series raced on the new LVMS surface and the speeds were vastly different. Check out the top five Green Flag Speeds taken from the Loop Data in 2005 (the "old" track) and 2006 (the "new" track).

NCTS Green Flag Speed

Las Vegas Motor Speedway
2005     2006  
Driver Speed   Driver Speed
Todd Bodine 156.972   Mike Skinner 174.406
Ted Musgrave 156.393   Ted Musgrave 173.821
Jack Sprague 156.391   Mike Bliss 172.702
David Starr 155.770   Johnny Benson 172.049
Mike Skinner 155.505   Ron Hornaday Jr. 171.982

Both Musgrave and Skinner have repeated success at both versions of the track, making it safe to theorize that if a driver excelled on the old surface, he might fare well on the new one.

The End

Also

Inside the Numbers

Season-to-Date Driver Rating
Pos. Driver Make Rating
1. Matt Kenseth Ford 117.5
2. Jeff Burton Chevrolet 114.7
3. Kevin Harvick Chevrolet 104.7
4. Tony Stewart Chevrolet 103.5
5. Mark Martin Chevrolet 102.9
6. Kyle Busch Chevrolet 101.4
7. Kurt Busch Dodge 94.8
8. Clint Bowyer Chevrolet 93.4
9. Jeff Gordon Chevrolet 91.1
10. Jimmie Johnson Chevrolet 86.4
• Complete Standings click here

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