Study shows safer cars may lead to more crashes

CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- The safer your car is, the more likely you'll crash -- that is, if you happen to be Dale Earnhardt Jr. or one of his fellow drivers.

A West Virginia University professor says 21 years of NASCAR crash data show that car safety has improved even while the number of wrecks has increased, and thinks this may also be true for the general population.

Economics professor Russell Sobel, who compiled the study with Penn State Erie professor Todd Nesbit, suggests the reason is psychological: if people believe they're safer, they're more likely to drive recklessly.

"How do you think people would drive if we got rid of seat belts and installed metal daggers sticking out of the steering wheel?" Sobel asks. "Most people would say, 'I'm not going to be tailgating."'

The opposite holds true for regulations that make cars safer, he says. And with today's racecars equipped with roll cages, five-point harnesses, window nets, Lexan windshields and other features, Sobel said reckless driving is commonplace.

Studying 631 races from 1972 to 1993, Sobel and Nesbit found that accidents increased while injuries to drivers decreased. About 4 percent of cars were involved in crashes in the early 1970s, compared to 10.7 percent in the early 1990s, the study found.

Also, the number of caution laps -- when drivers cannot pass each other because the track is dangerous, usually because of debris from a crash -- went from 25 to 45 per race.

At the same time, the study found that while one in seven drivers involved in accidents suffered injuries in the early 1970s, that had fallen to one in 20 in the early 1990s.

"This is kind of a win-win situation," Sobel said. "You get more exciting wrecks, but the drivers are safer."

NASCAR officials did not return repeated calls seeking comment on Friday.

Of course, most motorists are not driving 200 mph in high-performance racecars, but Sobel says the principle is the same: more safety features lead to more confidence, which can lead to reckless driving.

NASCAR presented an ideal model for the study because it's free of the factors that make comparing data from regular crashes so difficult, like variations in weather, road conditions and state law.

"This has implications for any type of safety regulation," he said.

The study will be published in the summer issue of the Southern Economic Journal.

Byron Bloch, a Maryland-based national expert on auto safety, said NASCAR drivers are too exceptional a group to use for broad conclusions about the general public.

"Does having a car with airbags make a teenage driver go 10 miles faster than he would otherwise? Does he even know or care that there are airbags in the car?" Bloch asked.

But he said the study may show how improved safety features can reduce injury rates even in vehicles traveling as fast as racecars.

"NASCAR should be praised for the constant search for improved safety technology," Bloch said.

The racing association is in the midst of a five-year plan to roll out the so-called Car of Tomorrow, which is designed to have a number of safety improvements on the current cars.

Joseph Ferrari, a research psychologist at DePaul University in Chicago who has studied seat-belt laws, said it's possible that enhanced safety features might make some people take more risks. However, safety improvements sometimes don't register with many drivers he said, pointing to studies that show low rates of seat-belt use.

"There will always be risky people, no matter what the technology is," he said.