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BackCompetition gets closer during this Golden Age (cont'd)

Lead-lap finishes

The percentage of cars on the lead lap has grown -- and in some cases doubled. In the 48 races held in 1970, only 5.5 percent of the cars that started the race finished on the lead lap. That number, too, has steadily grown. Below is a three-decade sampling:

Golden.Age.jpg

Golden Age?

A NASCAR statistical analysis attempts to prove that "racing since 1970 has become more competitive and more unpredictable than ever." Read NASCAR's contention, then Mark Aumann's opinion in Head2Head -- and weigh in with your take.

1976 -- 6.3 percent of cars on the lead lap
1986 -- 15.6 percent of cars on the lead lap
1996 -- 30.7 percent of cars on the lead lap
2006 -- 43.6 percent of cars on the lead lap

Furthermore, if you take the best and worse year per decade in terms of lead lap finishing percentage, the results continue to be lopsided.

1970-1979
Best: 1977 -- 8.5 percent of cars on the lead lap
Worst: 1973 -- 4.1 percent of cars on the lead lap

1980-1989
Best: 1989 -- 21.3 percent of cars on the lead lap
Worst: 1980 -- 9.5 percent of cars on the lead lap

1990-1999
Best: 1997 -- 32.0 percent of cars on the lead lap
Worst: 1991 -- 21.1 percent of cars on the lead lap

2000-2006
Best: 2005 -- 43.9 percent of cars on the lead lap
Worst: 2000 -- 34.1 percent of cars on the lead lap

More race leaders

The races themselves continue to grow in competitiveness. The number of leaders per race has seen steady growth since 1970. In 1970 a race averaged four different leaders. That number has been at least 10 for the past three full seasons and currently the average for the 2007 season is 11.

Average Leaders Per Race By Decade
1970-79 -- 5.4
1980-89 -- 8.1
1990-99 -- 8.3
2000-07 -- 9.8

In eight of the past 10 races, there have been at least eight different leaders:
• Michigan, 11 leaders
• Infineon, eight leaders
• New Hampshire, 11 leaders
• Daytona, 11 leaders
• Chicago, nine leaders
• Indianapolis, six leaders
• Pocono, 11 leaders
• Watkins Glen, six leaders
• Michigan, 10 leaders
• Bristol, eight leaders

More race winners

More cars running on the lead lap lends itself to more competition for the win which in turn lends itself to better parity. What really stands out is the year-by-year growth in terms of leaders per race, and winners per season.

In 1970, 18 races were won by one driver. In 1971, one driver won 21 races. Since 2000, no driver has won more than eight races in a season. Through 19 races this year, 13 different drivers have visited Victory Lane. In 1970, there were 12 different race-winners the entire season -- and that year featured 48 races on the schedule. A year-by-year look at total race winners:

Race winners per year

Year Winner   Year Winners
1970 12 in 48 races   1989 11 in 29 races
1971 12 in 48 races   1990 14 in 29 races
1972 8 in 31 races   1991 14 in 29 races
1973 8 in 28 races   1992 12 in 29 races
1974 5 in 30 races   1993 10 in 30 races
1975 8 in 30 races   1994 12 in 31 races
1976 8 in 30 races   1995 11 in 31 races
1977 7 in 30 races   1996 11 in 31 races
1978 7 in 30 races   1997 11 in 32 races
1979 9 in 31 races   1998 11 in 33 races
1980 10 in 31 races   1999 11 in 34 races
1981 9 in 31 races   2000 14 in 34 races
1982 8 in 30 races   2001 19 in 36 races
1983 12 in 30 races   2002 18 in 36 races
1984 12 in 30 races   2003 17 in 36 races
1985 9 in 28 races   2004 13 in 36 races
1986 13 in 29 races   2005 15 in 36 races
1987 10 in 29 races   2006 13 in 36 races
1988 14 in 29 races   2007 14 in 24 races

As illustrated in the preceding chart, 2001 -- with 19 different race winners -- was NASCAR's most prolific year in terms of parity since 1970. The year 1974 saw only five different winners, the lowest total in the period.

Per decade, the average breakdown is as such: 8.4 different race winners in the '70s (beginning with 1970), 10.8 in the '80s, 11.7 in the '90s and 15.3 since 2000 -- which would presumably grow with 12 races remaining in 2007.

The End

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