Competition gets closer during this Golden Age

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- Present-day NASCAR Nextel Cup Series races offer closer competition than anytime in history, a new NASCAR statistical analysis has shown.

Taking into account such statistics as cars on the lead lap, average leaders per race and margin of victory, racing since 1970 has become more competitive and more unpredictable than ever.

Consider this: In 1970, 22 of the 48 races "featured" only one car on the lead lap at the end of the race. Not since 1994 has a race ended with one car on the lead lap (Geoffrey Bodine at North Wilkesboro).

In the early 1970s, it was common for a race-winner to have a margin of victory of multiple laps. In 1973 at Darlington, for example, David Pearson finished 13 laps ahead of second-place finisher Benny Parsons. Also, in April 1977 at Bristol, Cale Yarborough finished seven laps ahead of runner-up Dick Brooks -- and led all but four laps in that race.

Since then, margins of victory have steadily decreased. Unimpeded runs to the checkered flag are a fading memory.

Since 1970, the race winner was the only car on the lead lap 128 times. From 1970-79, it happened 110 times. In the '80s, 16 times. In the '90s, only twice; and since 1995, it has not happened at all.

Close finishes

In May of 1993, NASCAR revolutionized the way it kept score, going from handheld stopwatches or analog timing clocks to integrated electronic scoring. On May 16, 1993 at Sonoma, Geoffrey Bodine defeated Ernie Irvan by 0.53 second in the first race using electronic scoring. A more precise way of measuring victory margins was established. Prior to electronic scoring, margins of victory were scored in either laps, car lengths or feet. Now the standard is measured in fractions of a second.

Comparing the close racing between now and 30 years ago is one thing, but a comparison between today's racing and racing just 10 years ago shows how the competition has improved in such a short period of time.

This season, the margin of victory was less than a second in 11 of 24 races. In six of those 11 races, the race was run using the Car of Tomorrow.

Of the closest finishes since 1993, seven of the top 10 have occurred since 2000:

Lead-lap finishes

The percentage of cars on the lead lap has grown -- and in some cases doubled. In the 48 races held in 1970, only 5.5 percent of the cars that started the race finished on the lead lap. That number, too, has steadily grown. Below is a three-decade sampling:

Golden Age?

A NASCAR statistical analysis attempts to prove that "racing since 1970 has become more competitive and more unpredictable than ever." Read NASCAR's contention, then Mark Aumann's opinion in Head2Head -- and weigh in with your take.

• More
• Motown was the foundation
• 'Golden' open to interpretation
• Technology large part of future

• 1976 -- 6.3 percent of cars on the lead lap
• 1986 -- 15.6 percent of cars on the lead lap
• 1996 -- 30.7 percent of cars on the lead lap
• 2006 -- 43.6 percent of cars on the lead lap

Furthermore, if you take the best and worse year per decade in terms of lead lap finishing percentage, the results continue to be lopsided.

1970-1979
• Best: 1977 -- 8.5 percent of cars on the lead lap
• Worst: 1973 -- 4.1 percent of cars on the lead lap

1980-1989
• Best: 1989 -- 21.3 percent of cars on the lead lap
• Worst: 1980 -- 9.5 percent of cars on the lead lap

1990-1999
• Best: 1997 -- 32.0 percent of cars on the lead lap
• Worst: 1991 -- 21.1 percent of cars on the lead lap

2000-2006
• Best: 2005 -- 43.9 percent of cars on the lead lap
• Worst: 2000 -- 34.1 percent of cars on the lead lap

More race leaders

The races themselves continue to grow in competitiveness. The number of leaders per race has seen steady growth since 1970. In 1970 a race averaged four different leaders. That number has been at least 10 for the past three full seasons and currently the average for the 2007 season is 11.

Average Leaders Per Race By Decade
• 1970-79 -- 5.4
• 1980-89 -- 8.1
• 1990-99 -- 8.3
• 2000-07 -- 9.8

In eight of the past 10 races, there have been at least eight different leaders:
• Michigan, 11 leaders
• Infineon, eight leaders
• New Hampshire, 11 leaders
• Daytona, 11 leaders
• Chicago, nine leaders
• Indianapolis, six leaders
• Pocono, 11 leaders
• Watkins Glen, six leaders
• Michigan, 10 leaders
• Bristol, eight leaders

More race winners

More cars running on the lead lap lends itself to more competition for the win which in turn lends itself to better parity. What really stands out is the year-by-year growth in terms of leaders per race, and winners per season.

In 1970, 18 races were won by one driver. In 1971, one driver won 21 races. Since 2000, no driver has won more than eight races in a season. Through 19 races this year, 13 different drivers have visited Victory Lane. In 1970, there were 12 different race-winners the entire season -- and that year featured 48 races on the schedule. A year-by-year look at total race winners:

As illustrated in the preceding chart, 2001 -- with 19 different race winners -- was NASCAR's most prolific year in terms of parity since 1970. The year 1974 saw only five different winners, the lowest total in the period.

Per decade, the average breakdown is as such: 8.4 different race winners in the '70s (beginning with 1970), 10.8 in the '80s, 11.7 in the '90s and 15.3 since 2000 -- which would presumably grow with 12 races remaining in 2007.