Margins are growing wider as Chase cutoff approaches

FONTANA, Calif. -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. went out early during Friday's qualifying session at California Speedway, and coaxed a cheer from the sun-baked fans by wheeling his red Chevrolet to the top of the scoring tower. Then, as has happened so often in the last month, Kurt Busch went out and topped him (watch video).

That's the way it's been for NASCAR's most popular driver as the sport approaches the Chase: good, but not good enough. Earnhardt needs to make up points on Busch this weekend to keep his playoff hopes alive, and prevent all the Chase berths from being locked up before the series holds its final regular-season event next weekend in Richmond. But he's not stressing -- the Tiger Woods 2008 video game came out this week, and a trip to Southern California means good tacos, the driver's favorite.

"The car's running good, and we've been running good, too. But if it keeps up as usual, it will be tough for us to do anything about it," said Earnhardt, who qualified seventh while Busch won the pole. "We'll just race hard, and if [Busch] has an unfortunate engine failure or something like that, maybe we can capitalize on that and make it exciting at Richmond. But we've had a great opportunity this year, and I felt really confident that we would make the Chase, hands-down. We ran competitive like we should have, we just weren't able to finish some races, and that's really cost us a lot."

In the now four-year history of the Chase, the Nextel Cup tour has never gone to the annual cut-off race at Richmond will all its playoff bids already determined, but that distinct possibility looms this week. The top 12 drivers make the Chase, and Busch currently leads Earnhardt by 158 points for that final position. If that margin stands at 161 or greater after Sunday's Sharp AQUOS 500, all Busch will have to do at Richmond is crank his engine and roll off the starting grid.

"That would be great for us," Busch said, "especially with all the pressure that's been on us the last few weeks."

And it would fit with the trend of the Chase losing a little more of its suspense with each passing year. In 2004, the debut season for the new championship format, 15 drivers came to Richmond with a mathematical chance to make the playoff, and Jeremy Mayfield secured a berth the only way he could -- by winning the race. Each year, the number of drivers statistically alive at Richmond has dropped. Now, the focus seems less on who might make the Chase, and more on where the 12 drivers, who will be seeded by race victories, will be positioned once it begins.

"Especially from our standpoint, it's all about positioning," said Denny Hamlin, currently third in points. "We're 30 points behind right now, and that's the difference in us finishing second and Jeff [Gordon] finishing sixth or seventh one race. We've closed it. I'm really not too stressed about starting 30-something behind. I started 55 behind last year."

The irony is that had NASCAR not expanded the Chase field from 10 to 12 participants, it would have three drivers within nine points of that final playoff berth, and likely enough drama to carry it to Virginia next Saturday night. Martin Truex Jr. trails 10th-place Kevin Harvick by one point, with Busch eight further back. Under this year's format, all three are almost certain to get in.

"I think that over the course of 26 races, that threshold is kind of at 12," said reigning champion Jimmie Johnson. "Some years it might be at 14, some years less, but you're right at that mark to where it's tough after 26 races to be within a certain points span. Now we have 12 that get in, and that's it more than anything. It's that 12th-place cutoff and the points that are associated with that, that are making this year not as exciting with that transfer spot going in."

But the drivers in the Chase will take security over drama any day. This year, they're looking forward to the upcoming race at Richmond -- quite a contrast to seasons past, when the pressure to make the Chase on that one night eclipsed what's usually an enjoyable event for competitors.

"The fall Richmond race the last two years has been extremely stressful," said Carl Edwards, fifth in points. "In 2005 after the race, I told them, 'I don't think that I could do that again right now, just because of the anxiety.' If anything would have happened, we weren't going to make it in the Chase. So now to go back there and just have a good time and race, that's going to be pretty cool."

Added Johnson, sixth in points: "I think in some ways it would be a much more enjoyable event for the field. The guys who are on that bubble trying to get in or out, carrying that drama, it's probably great for television and the press and all that. But not having that pressure on you to make it in or be on the edge, needing someone to have bad luck to be able to make it, that pressure not being there has to be a relief."