For Junior, odds aren't insurmountable, but close

For Dale Earnhardt Jr. to qualify for the season-ending Chase for the Nextel Cup, NASCAR's most popular driver will need an effort Saturday night similar to the one Jeremy Mayfield turned in on the eve of the 2004 playoffs. With one exception -- Earnhardt is going to require a little more help.

Mayfield was 55 points out of the 10th and then final Chase berth when the series came to Richmond International Raceway three years ago. Facing a win-to-get-in scenario, he pulled off a dramatic victory that has defined his career. Earnhardt arrives at the .75-mile oval facing a deficit more than twice that of what Mayfield overcame, and needing an unlikely series of events to happen to avoid missing the Chase for the second time in three years.

Chase Bubble

There are three drivers racing for two Chase positions Saturday night at Richmond.

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"I'm not the type that's going to make up something that's unrealistic," Earnhardt said. "If we make the Chase, great. But we know it's the longest of long shots. If we don't make it, I'll be sad for our fans and sponsors because they've been great to me all year even with everything that's happened. I want them to know that no matter what, me and the team are giving everything we've got. We're not going to lose focus or give up or pack it in."

Still, the odds are incredibly long. The top eight drivers have already clinched berths in the Chase, and those in the ninth and 10th positions need only to roll off the starting grid to get in. Eleventh-place Kurt Busch can wrap up his position by finishing 36th or better in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400, while 12th-place Kevin Harvick can clinch by finishing 32nd or better.

Earnhardt, meanwhile, doesn't need to win the race. But he needs to come close, and have several other things happen. At 128 points behind Harvick, he can't finish any worse than fifth. But he'll also need to lead the most laps, and have Harvick finish last. If Earnhardt wins and leads the most laps, and Harvick finishes 33rd or worse and doesn't lead a lap, driver No. 8 will have pulled off an unthinkable comeback.

"Dale Earnhardt Jr. can make it in the race if Harvick and [Busch] blow an engine and Junior has the race of his life," said former champion and current television analyst Rusty Wallace. "It's not impossible."

But it is terribly unlikely. Richmond is statistically Earnhardt's best track, a place where his average finish of 10.13 ranks better than any other stop on the Nextel Cup tour. In 16 starts in the Virginia capital, he's racked up three victories and seven top-five finishes. His first career top-10 came at Richmond, where he finished 10th in just his fourth career start in 1999. So did his most recent Nextel Cup victory, in the spring of 2006, now 51 race weekends ago.

But Harvick's no slouch at Richmond either, with four top-fives and a victory there in 13 starts, and an average finish of 12.46. The most points Earnhardt has ever gained on Harvick in one race at Richmond is 115. In 239 career races against the Richard Childress Racing driver, Earnhardt has gained more than 128 points just once, at Atlanta in 2002.

"I check the standings right after each race, and then I forget about it," said Earnhardt, who will drive a white, Elvis-themed car Saturday night. "I know we're a long way back, and even though we have a mathematical chance to get into the Chase, we're going to worry about things within our own control. What we can do is take that white car out there Saturday night and be as aggressive as we can be. Let's lead all the laps and win the thing."

Earnhardt is putting on a brave face, but he knows the odds are against him. Two consecutive fifth-place finishes haven't been enough to make up for the errors and engine failures that put his Dale Earnhardt Inc. team so far behind. Late Sunday night at California, crew chief Tony Eury Jr. -- who will follow his driver to Hendrick Motorsports next season -- sounded like a man who knew his playoff chances were over.

"Everybody wants it," Eury said. "You can say. all right, this is his last year at DEI and you wanted to go out with a bang and be in the Chase, but unfortunately it's not going to happen. So we'll just kind of take what we got and move on."