Johnson: Don't expect a conservative effort for title

HOMESTEAD, Fla. -- The record book shows that Jimmie Johnson clinched his first Nextel Cup championship by placing ninth in the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway one year ago.

It doesn't accurately document the drama he had to avoid to get there on the final day of the 36-race season.

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Johnson, who goes for back-to-back titles Sunday in the final race of the 2007 Chase for the Nextel Cup in yet another Ford 400, enters this year's event needing only to finish 18th or better no matter what his closest pursuer does. Johnson's current 86-point advantage over Jeff Gordon makes this seem like the biggest lock in sports since, well, Michigan over Appalachian State in college football or Kentucky over Gardner-Webb in college basketball.

That's not to say that Johnson is poised to slip up and go down like those Goliaths did recently. But upsets can, and do, happen in sports. From time to time, so do miracles.

You don't have to tell Johnson. He realizes that nothing is for certain entering Sunday's event -- and all he needed for the latest reminder was Friday's final Craftsman Truck Series race, when Mike Skinner lost a wheel and his grip on the season championship 74 laps into that event.

In racing, stuff happens. Johnson admitted he has been thinking about what bad luck might possibly befall his heretofore very fortunate No. 48 Chevrolet team. But he said that and his current position will not deter him from running an aggressive race.

He obviously didn't hold back in qualifying, winning the pole to put himself out front and in prime position to lead at least one lap. If he leads one lap, his threshold for clinching the Chase drops to a 19th-place finish or better; if he leads the most laps, all he has to do is finish 21st or better -- and that's all based on Gordon doing the best he can, which would mean Gordon would have to win.

"It certainly is a different race for us, but I really feel that if we try to do anything different, we're going to make mistakes," Johnson said.

Qualifying well, he added, should serve to "make life a lot easier to get track position, and get a good pit stall pick, and get into the race and do what we've been doing -- keeping in mind that there is a certain spot where we need to finish, and pushing the envelope in certain situations may not be the smart thing. But leaving Phoenix [after a fourth consecutive win last week] on the roll that we've been on, in my heart of hearts, I feel we can have another shot at winning the race."

Fellow Chaser Jeff Burton, driver of the No. 31 Chevrolet, said Johnson's approach is sound. He can't drive not to lose the championship, because that's exactly how he could lose what already seemingly is his, according to Burton.

"How many football games have we seen get blown away because they're playing prevent defense?" Burton said. "I think you've got to press and there is a big difference between being 100 percent and 98 percent. There is a big difference. When you start trying to be 85 percent, that's when you get in trouble.

"But Jimmie is a really good driver and Chad [Knaus] is obviously a really good crew chief -- and it's probably more nerves for them than anything else. If they just go out and execute the way they've done most of the year, they'll be fine."

No one has to remind Johnson that crazy stuff can happen at every track, and perhaps especially so at Homestead.

Two years ago, Johnson blew a tire and his final outside shot at catching eventual Chase winner Tony Stewart -- causing a disagreement between Johnson and Knaus that required the intervention of Hendrick Motorsports team owner Rick Hendrick, who called them into his office, pointed at a tray of milk and cookies, and told them that if they were going to act like children they could expect to be treated like children.

In 2004, Johnson was runner-up to Kurt Busch in the inaugural Chase -- and briefly appeared heir apparent to win it when Busch had his right-front wheel come off as he approached the pits early in the season finale at Homestead. But Busch recovered to finish high enough to clinch the title.

And in 2003, Bill Elliott appeared poised to put an exclamation point on his final season as a full-time driver -- but he had a tire go down on the last lap, handing the victory to Bobby Labonte instead.

Hendrick calls it racing luck. And he said that is why he isn't a huge fan of the Chase, despite having the two guys currently battling to win it. Each of the other 10 Chase drivers already has been mathematically eliminated.

"I think the Chase format has made it real exciting for the fans. And it's done what it's supposed to do," Hendrick said. "I personally am an old fan of the old format because if just you look at the last 10 races, there is so much racing luck involved. And we haven't had any bad racing luck in the Chase.

"Matt Kenseth has run well, but he's had some bad luck. Not taking anything away from what our two guys have done, because they've been phenomenal. But you can't help a cut tire, and you can't help rain and all the things that can affect you in those types of situations."

Told that Johnson has kept insisting all weekend long that nothing has been clinched yet, driver Martin Truex Jr. laughed heartily.

"He's just being cautious, smart. I would say the same things if I was him. But as an outsider watching? There ain't nothing that's going to go wrong for him. If it was going to, it would have already," Truex said. "They've been awesome. They've been able to do some incredible things in the last month.

"I'd be shocked. Unless that horseshoe falls out of his butt somewhere this weekend, then he's going to be OK."

Truex admitted that some nutty twists and turns have happened previously in Chase events.

"A couple of years ago when Kurt Busch's wheel fell off, that was pretty insane. But he still came back and won [the Chase]," Truex said. "I don't see anything like that happening [to Johnson]. He's up 86 points. It's going to take a lot of things going wrong. He would have to finish 43rd. They're too good of a race team, so I don't see that happening. I don't think he's that unlucky, either."

Gordon agrees. While backing off just a little on his comment that "it's over" following Johnson's win at Phoenix a week ago and saying he has no intention of giving up until he's told he's officially eliminated, he said that he fully expects Johnson to be hoisting the championship trophy come Sunday.

"We've got one left. And we don't want to wish anybody any bad luck," Gordon said. "So if those guys keep doing what they've been doing, which I don't expect them not to, I think it's going to be very, very difficult to see anything different happen than what we've been seeing the last several weeks."

Even last year, it was no cakewalk for Johnson on the final day. Needing to finish 12th or better to clinch the Chase after entering with a 63-point lead over Matt Kenseth, he qualified 15th but drove into the top 12 by Lap 5 and was inside the top 10 by Lap 7. But 16 laps later, a spring broke loose on Kurt Busch's car and nearly punctured Johnson's radiator -- requiring a pit stop to repair damage to the nose of his car that dropped all the way back to 40th.

Later, as he drove back up through the field, he survived nearly leaving the pits with a loose lug nut on a wheel. He also avoided spins involving Robby Gordon, Busch and Ryan Newman that threatened to take him out.

So there is no telling for certain what will happen Sunday. Hendrick is the only one absolutely assured of being a winner.

"It's been an unbelievable year," Hendrick said. "Somebody's got to lose Sunday night -- but with the kind of year both of these guys have had, it's a shame they can't split the trophy. I don't think they want to do that, but it would be easier on me."

They don't want to do it. And if all goes right, it will be the 48's night.

"I feel very confident in what's going on with the 48 team," Johnson said. "If we have an event without any problems, we'll be the champions again."

But if there are problems, who knows?