Toyota's past proves no guarantee of success

They're coming to change the face of American stock-car racing. They're coming to drown their competitors in cash. They're coming to raid your refrigerator, wreck your living room, steal your girlfriend and kick your dog.

At last that's the way it seems. Toyota's entry into NASCAR's premier series has provoked howls of warning from xenophobic race fans and rival manufacturers, who act as if the devil himself tools around in an Avalon. Even before it's turned a lap, the sport's newest carmaker has been pilloried as un-American, unfair, and responsible for the eventual financial collapse of Nextel Cup.

• Send David your thoughts

Yes, it all paints a pretty bleak picture. After all, Toyota comes in on the heels of a string of successes in other racing series. It has one of the biggest budgets in the sport. It has the financial ability to lure top people with outrageous sums of money. It has an engine program that scares the competition.

It's enough to make you want to go ahead and engrave David Reutimann's name on the 2009 Nextel Cup trophy. There's just one problem -- that scenario isn't Daytona Beach, Fla., in 2007.

It's Melbourne, Australia, in 2002.

Sure, Toyota has racked up trophies and championships in IMSA, Champ Car, World Rally, the Mickey Thompson Stadium Off-Road Series, and the Indy Racing League. But on the planet's biggest and most popular racing circuit -- the only one that can and should be directly compared to NASCAR -- the world's second-largest carmaker has proven an unqualified bust.

Toyota entered Formula 1 six years ago with every bit the pageantry and promise that's preceded its Nextel Cup debut in Sunday's Daytona 500. Its budget rivaled that of Ferrari, the home of seven-time series champion Michael Schumacher. It poached people like technical director Mike Gascoyne, paid a reported $6.5 million to leave Renault. Toyota's engine program, the BBC raved before its maiden race in 2002, was among the most powerful in the sport.

And for all that, Toyota has exactly zero grand prix victories. Thus far, the product of all those millions and man-hours is a pair of runner-up finishes -- both by Jarno Trulli in 2005 -- and a reputation as the most disappointing manufacturer in F1. They've revamped the engine four times, tweaked the car model six times, hired or fired eight different drivers, and still nothing has worked. (Continued)