COT vs. regular car: The numbers tell the real story

This is going to come as a shock to many of you, but there are some NASCAR fans who do not like the Car of Tomorrow.

Complaints I've received from readers run the gamut from it's ugly and the drivers hate it, to there's no passing in COT races.

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The first two I can knock out in one paragraph. I agree, it is ugly, but not so ugly as to warrant a divorce. Drivers don't like it because in its current state, the car is not as turnable as they would like it to be. Give it time. The smartest people in racing are working on a solution.

That leaves us with the lack of passing issue. If true, that's a legitimate issue that will need to be addressed directly by NASCAR. Thinking back to Sunday's Dodge Avenger 500, it seems to me that I saw lots of passing. But I've been wrong before. So before we jump to any conclusions, let's check the facts.

NASCAR keeps an official tally of what are called quality passes for each race. A quality pass is defined as a pass of a car running in the top-15 under green-flag conditions. The pass doesn't have to be for position. If a car running a lap down in 33rd place passes the 12th-place car on the lead lap at the end of the back straight, that's considered a quality pass. As far as statistics go, it's a great stat.

Based on official Loop Data, there were 673 quality passes in 500 miles on Sunday. Compare that to the pretty darn racy Busch Series event Friday night that saw 233 quality passes in 200 miles. That's 134.6 passes per 100 miles for the Cup race and 116.5 per 100 miles for the Busch race.

That's pretty surprising, but there's a bit of an apples-and-oranges thing going on with that comparison.

So let's compare this year's Darlington COT Cup race to last year's Darlington Cup race with the current car. Again, that's 673 for this year vs. 309 quality passes in 2006 -- more than twice as many. Advantage: COT.

But still, one race does not a statistical certainty make. So let's tally up all the COT races from 2007 and the same races from 2006 and see what we get.

Bristol 2007: 355 quality passes
Bristol 2006: 157 quality passes
Advantage: COT

Martinsville 2007: 352 quality passes
Martinsville 2006: 384 quality passes
Advantage: Current car

Phoenix 2007: 278 quality passes
Phoenix 2006: 594 quality passes
Advantage: Current car

Richmond 2007: 705 quality passes
Richmond 2006: 383 quality passes
Advantage: COT

In total, there have been 2,363 quality passes in 2007 compared to 1,827 in 2006 -- a difference of 536 and a 29.33-percent increase this year over last. That's a thumping so far.

Lap-by-Lap

Jeff Gordon stayed out as Jimmie Johnson pitted, and despite driving an overheating car, held the lead en route to the victory at Darlington.

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We're only five COT races into the 16-race COT season, so don't take those numbers to the bank just yet. But the trend does spell promise for NASCAR and its fans. There was a lot of concern going into Darlington about whether or not the car would pass its first superspeedway test. In terms of competitiveness, the numbers say it has.

What surprised me even more than that was the toughness of the car.

Honestly, when was the last time you saw so much damage on so many front-running cars at Darlington? The 24, the 11, the 48, the 2, the 12, the 8, the 17 and so many more all wore very pronounced Darlington Stripes. They all ricocheted off the wall like they meant it, then rocketed down the road only to do it again next time around. Tell me that's not old school.

"I think it took [hits] maybe a little bit better than what our current car does and I really thought that there was going to be a lot more accidents," said Denny Hamlin after the race.

Carl Edwards agreed, "It was pretty good for me. You could hit the wall harder with these cars and not mess them up, so that was fun. It was just a fun race. I thought they did a good job here. I wasn't too happy with these cars at Phoenix and Richmond, but this was alright."

Actually, Sunday's race was more than alright. It was great (watch videos). Typical awesome Darlington, and the numbers prove it. Even those who lament a fifth consecutive COT victory for Hendrick Motorsports can take comfort in knowing that some teams are just one flawed pit stop or so away from their own domination of COT races.

And if that happens, I wonder if more people will come around and not flat-out hate the car quite so much.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.