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Martin Truex Jr. recent success is messing up the scenerios Beau Estes sees unfolding in 2008.

Comparing the players in the Earnhardt Jr. drama

Does Junior's name belong on the list of NASCAR's best?

By Beau Estes, NASCAR.COM
June 19, 2007
02:14 PM EDT
type size: + -

Last week when the whole Dale Earnhardt Jr. to Hendrick Motorsports story was breaking, I heard a reporter I respect as much as any in NASCAR say essentially that Kyle Busch was the most talented driver on the circuit when he "got behind the wheel." The statement floored me. Not because I think Busch lacks tremendous gifts in the sport of racing, but more because I haven't heard his name thrown into that list before.

Typically the drivers who get labeled "most talented" in the conversations I have with various people are Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. My guess is that picking Jeff Gordon is like choosing NASA over Schwinn in a race to the moon. It's just a little too obvious and therefore his name gets left off.

Beau Estes

Beau Estes co-hosts the Jack Daniel's Post-Race Show with Nikki Alexander. It can be seen following every Nextel Cup race live on NASCAR.COM.

The point I am making is I rarely hear Dale Jr.'s name included in the "most talented" debate. Clearly, Junior can whip the No. 8 car around the track quite well thank you very much, but I don't understand why his name isn't mentioned in this conversation. This had me digging for some numbers last week and all was well and good with my world until Martin Truex Jr. decided to throw a monkey wrench in my plans.

You see, I am hoping like a last dollar lotto player that Busch will hop on over to DEI and 2008 will be the litmus test providing as sound of evidence in the driver or equipment debate as we can have in a sport like NASCAR. I saw two different scenarios playing out in my mind.

First scenario -- Dale Jr. starts the 2008 season winning the Daytona 500, cobbles together several wins and hits overdrive in the Chase allowing him to win his first championship. Junior Nation is galvanized and buys enough Dale Jr. merchandise to allow the France family to buy, well, France. I'll call this the "NASCAR couldn't be happier" scenario.

Scenario two -- Busch jumps to DEI, becomes the living, breathing face of the organization (I think we all know who the real face of the organization is) and taunts HMS and the rest as he wins race after race in '08. This is clearly the "Revenge" scenario.

Unfortunately, the living breathing face of DEI is no longer available. That's because the last three weeks Truex had a first, third, second run that would have made Dale Earnhardt himself proud.

Therefore, I've added a second Jr. to the statistical comparison I've prepared for you and will seamlessly let this transition into the Question of the Week, but first a look at the season and career numbers of Junior, Busch and Truex.

  Earnhardt Jr. Busch Truex Jr.
Age 32 22 26
Season Wins 0 1 1
Season Top-fives 2 3 3
Season Top-10s 6 8 6
Season Avg. Finish 15.9 17.0 17.0
Career Starts 270 93 60
Career Wins 17 4 1
Career Top-fives 71 22 5
Career Top-10s 115 39 12
Career Average Finish 16.1 19.0 21.0

Here is the way I want to break this down so it is at least somewhat fair to all of the drivers. I'm going to show you these drivers' career pace of success. Basically, how many starts it takes them to earn a victory, top five or top 10. Now before you shut down Time Warner by flooding my inbox with e-mails, I understand there are a myriad of factors that work their way into these results -- but these are the numbers each driver has posted. (Continued)

  Earnhardt Jr. Busch Truex Jr.
Starts per Win 15.9 23.3 60
Starts per Top five 3.8 4.2 12
Starts per Top 10 2.3 2.4 5
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