Comparing the players in the Earnhardt Jr. drama

Last week when the whole Dale Earnhardt Jr. to Hendrick Motorsports story was breaking, I heard a reporter I respect as much as any in NASCAR say essentially that Kyle Busch was the most talented driver on the circuit when he "got behind the wheel." The statement floored me. Not because I think Busch lacks tremendous gifts in the sport of racing, but more because I haven't heard his name thrown into that list before.

Typically the drivers who get labeled "most talented" in the conversations I have with various people are Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. My guess is that picking Jeff Gordon is like choosing NASA over Schwinn in a race to the moon. It's just a little too obvious and therefore his name gets left off.

Beau Estes co-hosts the Jack Daniel's Post-Race Show with Nikki Alexander. It can be seen following every Nextel Cup race live on NASCAR.COM.

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The point I am making is I rarely hear Dale Jr.'s name included in the "most talented" debate. Clearly, Junior can whip the No. 8 car around the track quite well thank you very much, but I don't understand why his name isn't mentioned in this conversation. This had me digging for some numbers last week and all was well and good with my world until Martin Truex Jr. decided to throw a monkey wrench in my plans.

You see, I am hoping like a last dollar lotto player that Busch will hop on over to DEI and 2008 will be the litmus test providing as sound of evidence in the driver or equipment debate as we can have in a sport like NASCAR. I saw two different scenarios playing out in my mind.

First scenario -- Dale Jr. starts the 2008 season winning the Daytona 500, cobbles together several wins and hits overdrive in the Chase allowing him to win his first championship. Junior Nation is galvanized and buys enough Dale Jr. merchandise to allow the France family to buy, well, France. I'll call this the "NASCAR couldn't be happier" scenario.

Scenario two -- Busch jumps to DEI, becomes the living, breathing face of the organization (I think we all know who the real face of the organization is) and taunts HMS and the rest as he wins race after race in '08. This is clearly the "Revenge" scenario.

Unfortunately, the living breathing face of DEI is no longer available. That's because the last three weeks Truex had a first, third, second run that would have made Dale Earnhardt himself proud.

Therefore, I've added a second Jr. to the statistical comparison I've prepared for you and will seamlessly let this transition into the Question of the Week, but first a look at the season and career numbers of Junior, Busch and Truex.

Here is the way I want to break this down so it is at least somewhat fair to all of the drivers. I'm going to show you these drivers' career pace of success. Basically, how many starts it takes them to earn a victory, top five or top 10. Now before you shut down Time Warner by flooding my inbox with e-mails, I understand there are a myriad of factors that work their way into these results -- but these are the numbers each driver has posted.

Clearly of late Busch and Truex have posted better numbers, but over time Dale Jr. is still the man among this crew. However, I'll plan on looking at these stats again sometime next season. I'm really starting to believe in the No. 1 car.

Now, just for fun I've thrown together Johnson, Gordon and Stewart's figures as well.

Jimmie and Tony's numbers are eye-popping, but Gordon is playing a different sport. These stats make it seem like he's flying an F-14 around the track. The guy is averaging -- yes averaging -- nearly six wins a season. His disproportionate numbers are Barry Bonds like, only with fuel being the only type of injection rather than -- well, I'd prefer to not get sued so I'll let you fill in the joke on this one.

This all leads us back to the statement the venerable reporter who shall remain nameless made about Busch being the most talented driver.

Question of the Week

This is a question that has bothered me since I began watching NASCAR. It's a two-part question that will require you to first insert a driver's name and then explain how you have come to your conclusion. If someone sets my mind free and solves this problem the NASCAR world will be forever grateful.

The questions are as follows: Who is the most naturally talented driver in NASCAR and more importantly what are the criteria that are the basis for determining "driver talent" in NASCAR? Basically, I want to know who you think is the most naturally gifted driver and how do you figure out who has the most "driver talent."

As always, send your thoughts on the subject to my inbox at Beau.Estes@Turner.com and I'll post the best responses in next week's column.

Last Week's Question of the Week

In the column a week ago, I wanted to know the answer to a question that brings into question the entire sport of NASCAR. I made my feelings plain on the subject, but I wanted to give you -- the fans -- a chance to voice your opinion. The question was: Do you really think NASCAR plays favorites on the racetrack to the point of trying to create a specific outcome?

First off the quick poll results ...

No -- 56.6%
Yes -- 43.4%

Now, onto the best of the e-mails ...

There is no way that NASCAR plays favorites. First of all, they would not risk so much to their sport. With so many people involved it would surely be leaked to the press, then to the fans, and sponsors jump ship. The biggest reason it seems unlikely NASCAR plays favorites is look at who is winning - Hendrick, Hendrick, and Hendrick. People are tired of it; they want Junebug to win and he hasn't won in over a year. That would be the guy getting the help.
Tyler, Age 15 -- San Antonio, Fla.

My thoughts exactly Tyler -- now go do some homework!

While I don't believe there is any grand conspiracy theory regarding fixing races, do believe that NASCAR wanted Gordon to win that race and made sure of it by throwing the yellow at that particular moment. To me, it's apparent ... NASCAR is a 24 fan ... and I don't mean the show on Fox.
Kyle -- Foster City, Calif.

This makes me wonder why I haven't seen Jack Bauer's mug on Jeff Gordon's car yet. Am I wrong? Have I missed this? The fastest car on the track meets the fastest show on TV.

Hey Beau,
No. No. No. NASCAR is about making money and absolutely the last thing that they would want would be a one team, one manufacturer dominance. This year's results have been very far from ideal from a NASCAR perspective. The only people in NASCAR that want a Hendrick domination work for Hendrick. The people supposedly doing the manipulating would want parity.
Will -- Bridgewater Va.

I don't like the idea of NASCAR "wanting" anything, but I agree with Will. If this were a novel rather than non-fiction, NASCAR would not have written the script this way.

Chatroom Chatter

Breaking News -- HMS didn't win the race. How did our always wild chatroom on the JD Post Race Show react?

This win was one that Roush Fenway needed. Will this motivate Ford to put more money into NASCAR in a season that has been all Hendrick and Chevrolet?
Carlos -- Brooklyn, N.Y.

I don't know that Ford was surprised at all to get this win. Historically, Michigan has been dominated by the Ford gang and to a lesser extent Dodge.

DEI has finally started to make a difference.
Tony -- Omaha, Neb.

It appears that DEI has put the business side of racing behind them so they can now get down to the business of racing.

I say way to go Junior, shake things up.
Sam -- Kauai, Hawaii

I agree, and more importantly I found Dale Jr. to be a man of his word. He said he would go to the team that gave him the best shot at winning and based on that framework who can argue with HMS?

For the first time in my career as a race prognosticator, I'm on record as picking the last place finisher from the prior race to win the upcoming race. Juan Montoya is my choice, but my big hope for the race is that he is in second with a lap to go crawling all over the rear bumper of a Ganassi teammate. Then and only then will my friends over at TNT truly know drama.

Enjoy the race.