More openings for Chase in '07, but unlucky 13 looms

It's been a tough enough season already for driver No. 13. Joe Nemechek, once the pilot of the car bearing that numeral for Ginn Racing, was released earlier this week as his team downsized and restructured in the wake of a sponsorship drought. Seven weeks from now, another driver on the Nextel Cup tour will be saddled with that unluckiest of numbers. It will pertain not to his vehicle but his spot in the standings, a position that will leave him the last man out of the Chase.

This rare off week is but the final breather before NASCAR throws itself headlong toward its revamped playoff format, a stretch that begins with a run at historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway and will end on a hot Saturday night on the short track in Richmond. In between, positions will be solidified, opportunities will be squandered, ground will be taken and lost. And one driver now on the cusp of qualifying for this postseason will find himself on the outside looking in.

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In a series where 12 men advance to the championship round, nobody wants to be driver 13. Yet someone has to be, just as Tony Stewart found himself the odd guy out of last year's 10-man Chase, just as Jamie McMurray found himself left out the year before that. It's not going to be Jeff Gordon, enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. It's not going to be steady Denny Hamlin or consistent Matt Kenseth.

It's not going to be savvy Jeff Burton, surging Carl Edwards, temperamental Tony Stewart or reigning champion Jimmie Johnson, all drivers who appear to be locks. But below them, the margin for error narrows. Right now there are 17 drivers who likely harbor realistic chances of making the Chase, all the way down to Casey Mears, a hefty 200 points behind the cutoff. But it stands to reason that this year's odd man out will come from somewhere between positions 11 through 15, all of them separated by a relatively modest 186 points.

But as we've seen before, drivers can go on precipitous slides to miss the Chase (Stewart, last year) and ride waves of momentum to make it (Jeremy Mayfield, 2004). So it's time to put on the prognosticating cap, put to use all those lessons learned from years of hanging out in Las Vegas sports books -- such as, never trust Arizona in the NCAA basketball tournament -- and figure out who'll be pounding the hood of his car in frustration exactly seven weeks from tonight:

• Kevin Harvick (eighth place): The Daytona 500 champ has been steady if unspectacular for much of this season, posting top-10s in four of his last five starts after a tough spring stretch. He has strong tracks like Indy and Bristol coming up. If it comes down to a race between nine drivers for five spots, he's in.

• Kyle Busch (ninth place): Sure he's talented, but he's also a lame duck, the guy at Hendrick Motorsports being shuffled out of the deck for Junior. He could bolster his Chase chances with a third career win at California, but how stressed are his relationships with his teammates? Still, the kid's too good, and too high in points to fall apart altogether. We think.

• Clint Bowyer (10th place): The best current Nextel Cup driver without a race win can be really good or wildly inconsistent, all within a span of a few weeks. He's run well at Indy, coming up next week. His best career finish is at Fontana, the week before the playoff field is decided. The affable Bowyer is our choice to make it on the number, and give Richard Childress Racing three cars in the Chase. Driver No. 07, meet position No. 12.

• Martin Truex Jr. (11th place): The kid was 16th in points after a 16th-place run at Charlotte eight weeks ago. Ever since he's been one of the hottest drivers in the series, with a victory and only one finish worse than 13th until his engine gave out at Chicago. In the wake of Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s impending move to Hendrick Motorsports, Dale Earnhardt Inc. needed someone to step up. Truex did, and he'll make the Chase as a result.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12th place): He'll make the Chase, win races, and contend for the series championship -- next year. Right now his team is trying to find itself, with just two top-10 finishes in its past seven starts. All that focus on Hendrick and next season can't help but take a toll. In the end, it seems fitting that a driver leaving DEI because he doesn't feel he can win a championship there will come up one position short of the Chase.

• Ryan Newman (13th place): Five top-10s in seven early summer starts pulled Newman to within sight of the Chase, but he hasn't been able to get over the hump. No question this team has improved greatly from last season, when a group that had finished in the top 10 in points four years running plummeted unexpectedly to 18th. But they're still not quite ready to contend for a championship.

• Kurt Busch (14th place): Same thing with the elder Busch, trying to return to the Chase after a one-year absence. Like his teammate Newman, the progress is obvious. But the results on the track -- he's been in the top 10 the past two weeks, after being outside it the previous seven -- just aren't enough to merit a championship shot. But if this improvement keeps up, Roger Penske is going to have a heck of a team in 2008.

• Jamie McMurray (15th place): He would have made the Chase two years ago had his Chip Ganassi Racing team not been hit with a points penalty for a rear window that didn't meet the template at Bristol. So let's say McMurray is been making up for lost time. Don't be fooled by the results -- the Pepsi 400 winner had cars capable of winning at New Hampshire and Sonoma before circumstances intervened. His Roush Fenway team has made huge strides in recent weeks, and he'll ride that momentum straight into the Chase.

• Greg Biffle (16th place): No driver in NASCAR has less of an ego and more of desire to win than Biffle, the sport's hard-charging everyman, who came a few lug nuts short of the championship in 2005. Since then he's been struggling to return to that level, and the work has been hard. At times, his frustration over his team's direction is palpable. The question isn't whether he'll make the Chase -- all signs point to no -- but whether he'll be back with Roush Fenway Racing after his contract expires next year.

The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.