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Dont' look back, Junior ... Kurt Busch and others are gaining on you.

'Funny how time slips away:' Tight Race to Chase

Junior clings to final spot with six races before cutoff

By Beau Estes, NASCAR.COM
July 31, 2007
05:25 PM EDT
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For a guy named Beau it's fair to say that my working knowledge of country music is rather pathetic. However, with six races to go until the cutoff for the Chase the words of the undeniably great, George Jones, are screaming in my ears. You know the song so cue the music in your minds:

"Well the race is on"

With just a half dozen weekends left until the field is trimmed to the 12 best, the most exciting race in the sport is exactly what NASCAR hoped it would be -- the mad dash for the final spot in the Chase. Here's how things shape up with a little lyrical help from "No Show Jones."

"Here comes pride up the backstretch"

Beau Estes

Beau Estes co-hosts the Jack Daniel's Post-Race Show with Nikki Alexander. It can be seen following every Nextel Cup race live on NASCAR.COM.

As Dale Jr. makes his last Chase run for his Daddy's team, the "pride" of Earnhardt Nation is carrying the hopes of NASCAR fans everywhere, including Russia -- believe me, my inbox knows (more on this subject later). Just three weeks ago, a relatively cozy lead of 137 points after Loudon has been slashed by more than 100, placing the No. 8 Chevrolet team on the brink of disaster. (read more)

"Heartache's a going to the inside"

Like any great "heartache" there must be good times and bad times and the man screaming up the track and "going to the inside" has had his share of both this year.

Kurt Busch has been embroiled in controversies this season with Tony Stewart and his own brother, Kyle, among others, but let's just come right out and say it -- the man can flat out drive. For some of you that might be giving the devil his due, but a month ago Busch sat in 16th place, more than 170 points behind Junior. Since then Busch has bedeviled the rest of the bubble boys flying right up on the rear bumper of the 8 team -- a measly 23 points back.

"Somebody new came up to win her. I wound up in second place"

This goes out to three talented drivers, currently standing 14th-16th in points, who could crush the hopes of the passionate fans of the 8 and 2 teams. Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray and Greg Biffle have a combined 25 wins between them and if any one of them gets on a roll Junior, Busch or even Martin Truex Jr. could be in trouble.

For some perspective, I've put together some numbers. This is the performances during the past six races during the last two years of the drivers 12-16 in the standings.

Driver Standings: 2005 / 2006
2005 Race 20 Chase cutoff +/- 2006 Race 20 Chase cutoff +/-
Greg Biffle 3 2 +1 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 11 6 +5
Kurt Busch 5 5 0 Greg Biffle 12 12 0
Ryan Newman 6 10 -4 Kurt Busch 13 14 -1
Jamie McMurray 11 13 -2 Jamie McMurray 17 19 -2
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 14 17 -3 Ryan Newman 18 17 +1

Two things jump out at me when I look at these stats: First of all Junior is the only driver among the five who has raced his way from outside the cutoff into the Chase during this two-year span. It's a small sample size, but he did show a capacity to perform under pressure. Secondly, only two of these drivers have a cumulative positive position move during the same time span -- Junior and Biffle, currently 16th in the standings. (Continued)

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Nextel Cup Series

Official Standings
Pos. +/- Driver Points Behind
1. -- Jeff Gordon 3076 Leader
2. -- Denny Hamlin 2705 -371
3. -- Matt Kenseth 2699 -377
4. -- Jeff Burton 2633 -443
5. +1 Tony Stewart 2624 -452
6. -1 Carl Edwards 2582 -494
7. +1 Kevin Harvick 2488 -588
8. +1 Kyle Busch 2479 -597
9. -2 Jimmie Johnson 2469 -607
10. -- Clint Bowyer 2405 -671
11. -- Martin Truex Jr. 2335 -741
12. -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2217 -859
• Complete Standings: click here

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