Risk vs. Reward: Bonus points worth the gamble?

On Friday, before his fourth-place finish at Pocono, and fresh off a two-day test session at Road Atlanta, Jeff Gordon had this to say about the races between now and the start of the Chase: "We've been consistent this year and we want that to continue, but it's good to know we have that buffer if needed. That cushion also allows us to gamble and go after wins in these final six races before the Chase starts."

With a tip of the hat to Mark Twain, you could sense that those words came with the calm confidence of a Christian with four aces.

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Or perhaps that should be a man with four race wins this season and 40 bonus points in escrow for when the Chase begins. As clearly as anyone has stated to date, Jeff Gordon has let it be known that the 24 team is willing to gamble in an effort to put as much distance as possible between them and the rest of the Chase contenders field before the first race of the Chase even begins.

"Any one of the 12 drivers can win the championship with the Chase format. Every point is crucial during the final 10 races, so any bonus points you get before the Chase begins is a huge benefit. And it's all about the bonus points for us right now," Gordon said. "So we can be risky. We can afford to lose some points by taking bigger risks and possibly getting those bonus points. With wins come momentum."

When you're running as well as Gordon has been running all season, momentum is a relatively easy thing to maintain. It's certainly easier to maintain it than it is to build it from scratch. Or to rebuild it after losing it, as is the case for Jimmie Johnson.

Even with the same number of wins this season as his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, and even after a solid fifth-place finish at Pocono Sunday, I doubt you'll see Jimmie Johnson take too big of a gamble for the sake of a win any time soon. I see the 48 team standing pat until Chad Knaus' return. After that, it only makes sense for the team to push to regain the consistent, week-to-week form that has proven so successful for them over the past, well, 18 months.

Johnson's is not the only top-12 team that's not likely to stray too far from their season-long race routine.

Comfortably second in the standings and with seemingly a race or two to give gamble with, Denny Hamlin isn't too keen on the idea of possibly tearing up some good Chase equipment. For them, it's more about being prepared for the Chase once it begins than a bump in bonus points.

"We can't be just going crazy over 10 points here and there because ultimately, if it affects your performance and kills your momentum going in to the Chase, it isn't going to matter anyhow," Hamlin said. "I think this Chase is going to be more about who doesn't make a mistake than it is who just out performs everyone."

Asked if it's possible to come from the back of the Chase field and still win it all, Hamlin replied, "I think so. Because ultimately when we do get in the Chase, consistency is what this point system is still based around. Winning is a premium, but the guy that runs in the top-five every week, doesn't matter if a guy can get five wins and then finish 30th or worse five times. It is going to reward the guy who is still consistent regardless. But the problem is, you don't want to start 60 points behind when the Chase starts."

The 11 team's plan? Gamble selectively, but only when the opportunity presents itself.

"Yes, we are going to press it if we are running second, yes, we are going to press it," Hamlin added. "But if we are running 13th or 14th, or something like that, there is no sense in us wrecking a car and getting even further behind."

But even his third-place finish in Pocono, Hamlin wasn't willing to press the issue Sunday.

"Yeah, I had the mindset that, yeah, I can maybe crash trying to win, you know, and afford it," he said. "But still you don't want to do that because you don't want to tear up racecars that you're going to need in the Chase and you don't want to get the guys' morale down. You still need good solid runs. That goes as far as winning races, in my opinion."

And then there's JGR teammate Tony Stewart, who seems always willing to reach farther out over the table to place his bet than anyone else in NASCAR. As his annual summer surge gets underway, I'm merely stating the obvious when I point out that Tony needs no excuse or inspiration to gamble on a win. His eyes are squarely focused on Johnson and Gordon. As well they should be.

To gamble, or not to gamble? There's no easy answer. The math isn't much help here, either. Ten bonus points is the same as the difference between finishing, say, third and fifth. Lower down in the order, 10 points equals a fraction less than four finishing places. That's not a whole lot of places in my book.

Then again, I can't imagine any Chase contender is very comfortable with the idea of spotting a Jeff Gordon or a Jimmie Johnson any points whatsoever.

It's quite a dilemma.

The beauty is, we get five more races to see how each team vying for the Chase plays their hand. The closer we get to the Chase, the higher the stakes will become. Stay tuned. I'll bet you do.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.