Race to win the Chase will be better than the race to it

The official schedule doesn't show it, but the Race to the Chase is over. That much was pretty clear last Tuesday afternoon when Kurt Busch won convincingly at Michigan, 11 positions ahead of Dale Earnhardt Jr, his closest "Chase Bubble" rival. Nothing about the results from Saturday night's race at Bristol changed any of that.

Junior's fifth-place finish Saturday night made only a symbolic dent -- no, door ding -- in that deficit because Kurt finished in his rearview mirror, in sixth. So here we are with just two races to go and Junior trails Busch by 158 points for that last transfer spot.

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Is Junior mathematically eliminated? No. He can still sneak in, but it's going to take some extraordinary circumstances and an approving nod from the Big Guy upstairs.

The numbers are pretty straightforward: To make up those 158 points, Junior needs to win these next two races and lead the most laps, while the elder Busch brother must finish lower than 15th in both races. On the other end of the equation, if Kurt Busch finishes dead last at California and Richmond, Junior only has to rack up 223 points in two races to pass him. That's a 17th-place average finish.

That's just not going to happen.

Historically, the schedule is not in Junior's favor. Since 2004, his 25.1 average finishing position at Fontana's 2-mile oval leaves little reason for optimism. Richmond, on the other hand, suits Junior much better with a solid 9.7 average finish -- including two wins -- in that same timeframe. Alas, that record pretty much equates to the 17th-place finishes he'll need if Kurt grenades his engine entering Turn 1 on Lap 1 of both races. To make matters worse for Junior, it looks like Penske Racing has its 2-mile program in pretty good shape.

Until he's securely in the Chase, Busch will be instructed to do everything in his power to protect his equipment, hit his marks and finish strong. As solidly as the 2 team has been running since Pat Tryson came aboard as crew chief, and given the poise Busch has shown on track lately, losing a 158-point lead is simply not in the cards. This is a team in control of its own destiny. (read more)

Which isn't to say free falls can't happen. Just last year, Tony Stewart dropped 127 points to Kasey Kahne in the last three races leading up to the Chase. In that time, Stewart dropped from fifth in the points going into Bristol to 11th place after Richmond. But that was in a span of three races. Junior now only has two races to make up an even greater delta.

As bad as things are looking (marketing-wise) for the remainder of the Race to the Chase, the Chase itself is shaping up nicely.

For the first time since they've been competing against each other in NASCAR, it looks like the Cup championship may well come down to a battle between Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart -- arguably the two most talented drivers in all of motorsports. Each time one driver has won a championship, the other was not really in the picture. The closest they ever came was in 2002 when Stewart won the title and Gordon was a distant fourth, 193 points back.

Both teams are well positioned for the Chase, too. Gordon with season-long consistency has four wins, 14 top-fives and 20 top-10s. Stewart has momentum on his side with three victories, eight top-fives and 17 top-10s. If these two teams hold form during the Chase, I predict greatness.

Of course, there are 10 other guys and two other manufacturers who will have plenty to say about the outcome, too. Early in the season Chevrolet was dominant, winning 13 of the first 14 races. Since the June Michigan race, though, things have been much different: Chevy has four wins, Ford has three, and Dodge has three. All along, that early season dominance by Chevy had more to do with team preparedness than manufacturer weakness -- a fact that bodes well for the remaining Chase drivers.

Busch and Penske Racing may be late to the Chase dance, but they're on a huge roll. They're certainly a favorite going into Sunday's race in California. One more win for Busch and he'll have the same number of bonus points as Stewart, plus that much more momentum.

Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth are heading the charge for the resurgent Roush Fenway Racing. After watching Jack Roush's demeanor following Edwards' victory Saturday night, I couldn't help but notice he looked like he knew something that nobody else did ... something that made him happy, something above and beyond that night's win.

Denny Hamlin has been a threat to win in so many races, I've lost count. He's finished on the lead lap in all but six races. It will be a genuine surprise if he's not right there at the end of the Chase.

Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr. certainly have the toughest rows to hoe. Momentum is not on their sides at this point, but they didn't get here by not contending week in and week out.

That leaves Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. An informal survey of the folks here at NASCAR.COM points out the obvious: both are serious contenders for the title, despite their lack of wins lately. Only one person here didn't give Kyle a shot and that was entirely based on intra-team politics. He flew off in a black helicopter before I could get permission to name him here.

With the field locked up, the Race for the Chase may be over, but the Chase for the Nextel Cup has never, ever looked better.

The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.