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What a Race to the Chase it would be if that one point separating Kevin Harvick from Martin Truex Jr. meant making the playoffs.

Chase no more a perfect 10 but most things not perfect

By Bill Weber, NASCAR.COM
August 30, 2007
02:47 PM EDT
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I wasn't surprised when NASCAR announced it was expanding the Chase for the Nextel Cup to the top-12 drivers, but I was a little disappointed when I first heard the rumblings that it was going to happen.

People like being in the Top 10. It is something to shoot for, a small package of prestige, you and just nine others. That's it. When we talk about college football it is always, "here is a look at where the top-10 teams in the nation are playing this week." David Letterman has his Top Ten List; would it be as good if it were the Top Twelve? Each week the national television rankings talk about the top-10 shows, and USA Today will tell you about the top-10 restaurants or the top-10 resorts to visit before the summer ends. That doesn't mean number 11 is a shack on the coast somewhere, it just means it didn't make the Top 10.

NASCAR wanted to add more names to the list of potential champions for the Chase for the Nextel Cup which, by the way, is 10 races. I can understand that, more drivers, more chances, maybe more excitement. Hey, I hope it works out that way. The point system is different; some of the drivers are different. Good luck with the Chase. I know I'll be watching. But, right now, I'm also pretty sure whom I'll be watching.

Certainly one of the thoughts behind expanding the Chase to 10 plus 2 was that there would be a crush for the 12th spot, maybe five or six guys would be in contention going to California. Then on to Richmond where maybe four guys would battle it out for the final spot. That could happen. But with the lead 12th-place Kurt Busch has on 13th-place Dale Earnhardt Jr. and 14th-place Ryan Newman, the chances of a challenge at Richmond are slim.

But, if the Chase was only the top-10 drivers in the championship standings, well, then we might have something to watch. Tenth-place Kevin Harvick would be pacing back and forth in his motorcoach all night. He would be one point ahead of Martin Truex Jr. and just nine points ahead of Busch. The 100-point penalty Busch received at Dover (he got off easy) would be rattling around in his head more than it already is. Even ninth-place Clint Bowyer would have an eye on his rearview mirror. And the Junior Nation "We Ain't the 8 No More" garage sale would be in high gear.

I love to look at statistics, meaningful statistics, not some computer generated hocus-pocus designed to generate excitement in a newspaper column somewhere, but true numbers from real events. For example, in 2006, Harvick finished 15th at California, Kurt Busch was eighth; in 2005, Harvick finished 14th at California, Busch was 12th. You can do the math. What happened in 2004? Harvick finished 28th, and Kurt Busch came home 11th. Oh boy. It's just for conversational purposes but if only the top-10 drivers in the championship standings were going to make the Chase, well, then we would be talking Harvick, Truex, Busch and penalties. There might actually be some excitement at Cali-bore-nia.

I love watching baseball teams trying to claim that wild-card position the last month of the season. I love the final weeks of the NFL season when 29 teams still have a mathematical chance to earn the final playoff berth if the Bears lose, the Giants win, the Cowboys and Redskins play to a 29-29 tie and the Saints score more than 46 points in any even-numbered quarter. That is the kind of stuff that wears out the TV remote.

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The Race to the Chase really doesn't have that because once teams get locked in, there is nothing to race for. Oh well, except the win, which used to be what it was all about, winning. I like the Chase idea. It is not perfect and any ideas found here are certainly flawed somewhere in the formula. This is just Year 4, and changes have been made. You, the fan, have to voice your opinion on what is good and what is not as good. NASCAR is making the rules but no matter how angry you might get sometimes, it does listen to the fans, and its goal is to make every lap exciting. Of course, that will never happen. New Hampshire is on the schedule twice, but it does try.

Race to the Chase

Top 10 / Top 12 comparison
Pos. Driver Points +/- 10 +/- 12
9. Bowyer 2944 +56 +65
10. Harvick 2888 -- +9
11. Truex Jr. 2887 -1 +8
12. Ku. Busch 2879 -9 --
13. Dale Jr. 2721 -167 -158
14. Newman 2704 -184 -175
• Official Standings, click here

Drivers race their hearts out every week. The premise does not change from week to week, but the purpose might. There has been a lot of conversation about the race at Bristol on Saturday night. People, lots of people, have said the excitement is gone; the emotion is no longer there. The premise is still the same: win and get the most points possible; but the purpose has changed: just survive, stay out of trouble, protect our position this week and when we get to California get back in the gas while everyone is sleeping.

I have never raced a Nextel Cup car, never will. As a rule, I try not to criticize anyone that is brave enough, bold enough or talented enough to compete in this series. I don't care if he finishes first or 41st every week. On a given Sunday, or Saturday night, or the occasional Tuesday, only 43 guys get to do this, that's smaller than one NFL team roster. But I can tell you this, the excitement and the impact expected in the final three races leading up to the Chase is not there. With maybe one exception, it has not been. Sure there have been some dramatic moments watching to see who can make the cut, but there is little focus on the guys that have run better than anyone else all year, the guys already locked in. And there is little incentive to look.

If you have clinched an NFL playoff berth, and are locked into your position, your starting quarterback and that star running back might play a quarter, or less. You don't what to take your team out of contention before the playoffs even begin. That is what is happening in the races leading up to the Chase. That is what happened at Bristol. Some of the biggest stars in the sport and the best in the sport have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Some of the guys racing against the biggest and best don't want to be the one that takes them out in a short-track tussle for 17th. Trust me, Richmond will be the same way. California will be, well, California.

At the end of this column they run a disclaimer that says all this stuff is just my opinion, and this is exactly what it is. But watch this week and next. If you recorded the Bristol race go back and watch just a part of it. And while you do, think about a few things. Would Bristol and Richmond be better if they started just 36 cars so there would be more room to race? How much drama would that add to qualifying? Should NASCAR award bonus points for finishing in the top 10 on the short tracks at Bristol and Richmond? Should you cut off short-track points after the 25th position? Should the race at California be just 400 miles with double points going to the winner and the highest finisher in the top 15 in points? What would happen then if two drivers were running side-by-side closing in on the checkered flag?

Normally I try to write about the people in the sport, I hope to give you a look at someone you may not know, or someone you may want to know better. In this column I tried to write about someone you may already know, your fellow race fan. They want to see the best at their best, not the best getting ready for the rest. NASCAR has tried to "massage" the sport to increase the excitement, but they have to give the teams more of a reason to race, not less. The bigger the prize, the greater the challenge, the sweeter the reward. And that would mean more excitement on the track. But, that's just my opinion, it says so right below.

The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.

The End

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