Crunching the numbers one way to predict Chase (cont'd)

Carl Edwards

Best Track: Apparently, Edwards doesn't have to stop through Atlanta's nightmare of an airport. His 9.8 average finish should have him back-flipping his way to the private plane. If you can, drive like the NASCAR guys to this race.
Worst Track: The drive from Atlanta to Talladega is a breeze, but apparently Carl's mojo gets lost in the shuffle. His worst numbers are in 'Bama where he posts an average finish of 23.0.

Jeff Gordon

Best Track: Seven wins at the half-mile track of Martinsville have the dominant driver of the season posting an average finish of 7.3 in Virginia.
Worst Track: He owns the car that dominates in Charlotte, the 48 of Johnson, but Gordon the driver has less fun at Lowe's. His only average outside of the top 20 is the 20.2 he posts here.

Denny Hamlin

Best Track: The 3.7 average at New Hampshire easily takes the cake here, but Hamlin should be considered a major threat for the championship based on the overall numbers that I am looking at.
Worst Track: Hamlin doesn't have a lot in common with Dorothy or Toto for that matter. Kansas has been nothing like home for the driver who'll likely want to click his heels onto Talladega if history repeats itself. Hamlin averages a 25th-place finish at the 1.5 mile course.

Kevin Harvick

Best Track: Harvick finds Homestead to his liking. An 8.7 average finish would serve well in the event that the Richard Childress driver is in the mix on the last weekend of the year.
Worst Track: Why does everyone seem to struggle at Lowe's? The race in Charlotte could be a turning point in the season. Harvick, in his 13 starts, averages a 26.3 finish.

Jimmie Johnson

Best Track: Johnson has several tracks where he averages a top-10, but none is better than his typical 6.6 finish at Martinsville.
Worst Track: If you can call it a struggle, Johnson's 19.3 finish at Talladega ranks worst among the last 10 races.

Matt Kenseth

Best Track: Expect Kenseth to get off to a hot start in the Chase. He averages a 10.7 number at New Hampshire -- best for him among the last 10 courses.
Worst Track: Homestead could be homely for Kenseth if he doesn't flip the script. He typically finishes the season with a 22.7 clip.

Tony Stewart

Best Track: This Tiger roars loudest in Kansas. His one win in six tries at Kansas has him on a 6.5 average pace.
Worst Track: If there is such a thing as a best worst, Stewart has the honor. A 17.8 average finish is as bad as it gets for the 20 team -- and that isn't too bad at all. Guess where it happens, though? It's the same ailment everyone else has contracted -- the Lowe's lows.

Martin Truex Jr.

Best Track: The Chase face for DEI puts his best face forward at Dover where he won his first career Nextel Cup race in June. Truex averages a 9.7 finish in Delaware.
Worst Track: You heard it before. Martin doesn't like Martinsville where he comes home on average in 28th position.

Now, with all of the above numbers scrambling around in your head I'll give you the predicted order of finish for the championship based on their combined average finish at the 10 Chase tracks:

Obviously, I had no idea how this would turn out when I took on this number-crunching exercise, but one outcome I'm impressed with is that the three drivers with the most wins this season end up on top in this particular model. That is both the "truth" and the "supreme beauty" of this mind-numbing math exercise.

Thanks, Bertrand. (Continued)