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Crunching the numbers one way to predict Chase (cont'd)
Question of the Week
Why not jam up the NASCAR.COM inboxes, I say? It's survey time and the subject is Dale Earnhardt Jr. With his race for the Chase over in 2007, I'm asking all NASCAR fans with access to a crystal ball to give me a "yes" or "no" to the following question:
Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. make the Chase next year in an HMS car?
Send your thoughts to me at Beau@Turner.com. ... I'm waiting.
Last Week's QOW
It was my last chance to throw an honest "Who do you think will win the championship?" poll out there before the Chase began so I took it and here are the results ...
| Driver | % | Driver | % | Driver | % | Driver | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kenseth | 34.0 | J. Gordon | 27.2 | T. Stewart | 13.6 | J. Johnson | 11.3 | |||
| C. Edwards | 9.0 | Ky. Busch | 2.2 | D. Hamlin | 2.2 |
Full disclosure: I did an interview with Kenseth last week, so. ... Perhaps that content had an impact on the results. Below is a typical e-mail.
Well, you just interviewed my favorite driver, so. ... Matt Kenseth is going to win the championship, of course. And maybe then we can quiet down those that thought he didn't really deserve it the first time. Although the rest of us know better. Go, Matt Go!
Kensethfan713
I'm just saying there's a chance that my inbox was flooded by the pro-Kenseth contingent.
Chat Room Chatter
With every Jimmie Johnson/Jeff Gordon win, the chat room gets flooded by the word "cheater." I can't wait to see if the word "cheater" is used when Dale Jr. and Tony Eury Jr. inevitably win a race next year. My point is, if NASCAR is going to forgive all three teams -- shouldn't we? Perhaps calling someone a cheater is half the fun and I just don't get it.
Hey Beau, is Rick Hendrick the George Steinbrenner of NASCAR?
Jim -- Iowa
Not at all and here is the difference. Rick Hendrick signs big names and wins championships. The Boss can't seem to get the latter done of late.
This Week
The answer to the question, "Will Jeff Gordon get robbed of a championship he has owned all year long?" begins to get answered this week. Remember, Kurt Busch has a title that some Gordon fans believe should have been his fifth and thus 2007 would have been a run at six.
Enjoy the race.
The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.
Chase for the Nextel Cup
| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | Behind | Starts | Poles | Wins | Top-5s | Top-10s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | +5 | Jimmie Johnson | 5060 | Leader | 26 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 16 |
| 2. | -1 | Jeff Gordon | 5040 | -20 | 26 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 |
| 3. | -1 | Tony Stewart | 5030 | -30 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 4. | -- | Carl Edwards | 5020 | -40 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 5. | +6 | Kurt Busch | 5020 | -40 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 6. | -3 | Denny Hamlin | 5010 | -50 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 7. | +3 | Martin Truex Jr. | 5010 | -50 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 8. | -3 | Matt Kenseth | 5010 | -50 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 9. | -1 | Kyle Busch | 5010 | -50 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 10. | -3 | Jeff Burton | 5010 | -50 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 11. | +1 | Kevin Harvick | 5010 | -50 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 12. | -3 | Clint Bowyer | 5000 | -60 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
Also
- Keller approaches another milestone with start at RIR
- Richmond left to settle a three-way battle for Chase
- Leader Benson keeps focus on winning, not cruising
- NASCAR Holdings reveals plan to acquire Grand-Am
- Richmond 1988 emotional at both ends of finish order
- Kahne could be left with two victories, but no shot
Chase Drivers / Tracks
Matt Kenseth
| Track | No. | W | T-5 | T-10 | Avg. Finish | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loudon | 15 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 10.7 | 9 |
| Dover | 17 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14.2 | 5 |
| Kansas | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20.0 | N/A |
| Talladega | 15 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15.4 | 14 |
| Charlotte | 16 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 14.6 | 12 |
| Martinsville | 15 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16.3 | 10 |
| Atlanta | 15 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 15.6 | 3 |
| Texas | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11.1 | 2 |
| Phoenix | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 18.4 | 5 |
| Homestead | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22.7 | N/A |
Tony Stewart
| Track | No. | W | T-5 | T-10 | Avg. Finish | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loudon | 17 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 13.4 | 12 |
| Dover | 17 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 10.7 | 40 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6.5 | N/A |
| Talladega | 17 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 12.9 | 28 |
| Charlotte | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 13.2 | 6 |
| Martinsville | 17 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 12.2 | 7 |
| Atlanta | 17 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 11.5 | 2 |
| Texas | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13.7 | 25 |
| Phoenix | 11 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 9.9 | 2 |
| Homestead | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10.0 | N/A |
Martin Truex Jr.
| Track | No. | W | T-5 | T-10 | Avg. Finish | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loudon | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14.3 | 3 |
| Dover | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Kansas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.0 | N/A |
| Talladega | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20.0 | 10 |
| Charlotte | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18.8 | 16 |
| Martinsville | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28.0 | 29 |
| Atlanta | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28.2 | 8 |
| Texas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11.0 | 7 |
| Phoenix | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.0 | 20 |
| Homestead | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17.0 | N/A |
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