Crunching the numbers one way to predict Chase

"Mathematics possesses not only truth, but also supreme beauty."
-- Bertrand Russell, English Philosopher

In pursuit of Mr. Russell's "truth" I'm going to blind the masses with the sweet science of statistics. Over the course of the next few pages you will learn which "Chaser" does best at each track and conversely which "Chaser" struggles at those locations. Also, I will endeavor to shed light on each driver's best and worse venue. Remember, every ranking is based strictly on the numbers. I've pored through each driver's results at the specific courses in the Chase and calculated averages. Don't skip ahead, but at the end I'll determine the likely champion based on the "supreme beauty" of these numbers.

Now, before you flood my e-mail with flaws in my theory of numbers let me explain that my sister, Katie, is about to receive her doctorate in statistics so her criticism of my efforts will suffice, thank you very much.

Beau Estes co-hosts the Jack Daniel's Post-Race Show with Nikki Alexander. It can be seen following every Nextel Cup race live on NASCAR.COM.

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For starters let's look at each track:

New Hampshire

Best Driver: In his limited time on the Nextel Cup circuit, Denny Hamlin has become fast friends with New Hampshire International Speedway. His average finish of 3.7 far outpaces the field and is in fact the best result of any "Chaser" at any of the 10 remaining tracks
Worst Driver: Also in his second year, Clint Bowyer has struggled at the track in New England. The Kansas man has an average finish of 29.3 -- more than 12 spots behind the 16.6 of Kurt Busch who came in 11th out of the 12 drivers.

Dover

Best Driver: In a sweeping start, second-year superstar Hamlin again leads the pack. At the Dover International Speedway in Delaware -- Hamlin averages an eighth-place finish, but he's yet to notch a win at the course.
Worst Driver: While Hamlin may expect a quick start in the Chase, Busch might might stumble out of the gate. Following his 11th-place finish out of 12 "Chasers" at New Hampshire, Busch is last in Dover averaging 20.1 on his 14 starts.

Kansas

Best Driver: From worst in New Hampshire to first in his home state, Bowyer owns a sixth-place finish in his only start at the Kansas Speedway. As a footnote, Tony Stewart averages a 6.5 average finish and owns a win in his six starts.
Worst Driver: Here is where Hamlin's quick start could come apart. In his two races in Kansas on the Nextel Cup circuit, Hamlin has averaged a 25th-place finish; far and away the worst of the "Chasers."

Talladega

Best Driver: Without a single win, Busch has managed to compile the best run at Talladega. His standard race at the Alabama track nets him a 10.2 finish.
Worst Driver: The only superspeedway in the Chase eats up Busch's brother, Kyle. In his five starts at Talladega, Kyle, on average, is finishing some 20-plus spots behind his brother with a 30.8 average median finish. (Continued)