Crunching the numbers one way to predict Chase

"Mathematics possesses not only truth, but also supreme beauty."
-- Bertrand Russell, English Philosopher

In pursuit of Mr. Russell's "truth" I'm going to blind the masses with the sweet science of statistics. Over the course of the next few pages you will learn which "Chaser" does best at each track and conversely which "Chaser" struggles at those locations. Also, I will endeavor to shed light on each driver's best and worse venue. Remember, every ranking is based strictly on the numbers. I've pored through each driver's results at the specific courses in the Chase and calculated averages. Don't skip ahead, but at the end I'll determine the likely champion based on the "supreme beauty" of these numbers.

Now, before you flood my e-mail with flaws in my theory of numbers let me explain that my sister, Katie, is about to receive her doctorate in statistics so her criticism of my efforts will suffice, thank you very much.

Beau Estes co-hosts the Jack Daniel's Post-Race Show with Nikki Alexander. It can be seen following every Nextel Cup race live on NASCAR.COM.

• To see past shows, click here
• Send Beau your thoughts

For starters let's look at each track:

New Hampshire

Best Driver: In his limited time on the Nextel Cup circuit, Denny Hamlin has become fast friends with New Hampshire International Speedway. His average finish of 3.7 far outpaces the field and is in fact the best result of any "Chaser" at any of the 10 remaining tracks
Worst Driver: Also in his second year, Clint Bowyer has struggled at the track in New England. The Kansas man has an average finish of 29.3 -- more than 12 spots behind the 16.6 of Kurt Busch who came in 11th out of the 12 drivers.

Dover

Best Driver: In a sweeping start, second-year superstar Hamlin again leads the pack. At the Dover International Speedway in Delaware -- Hamlin averages an eighth-place finish, but he's yet to notch a win at the course.
Worst Driver: While Hamlin may expect a quick start in the Chase, Busch might might stumble out of the gate. Following his 11th-place finish out of 12 "Chasers" at New Hampshire, Busch is last in Dover averaging 20.1 on his 14 starts.

Kansas

Best Driver: From worst in New Hampshire to first in his home state, Bowyer owns a sixth-place finish in his only start at the Kansas Speedway. As a footnote, Tony Stewart averages a 6.5 average finish and owns a win in his six starts.
Worst Driver: Here is where Hamlin's quick start could come apart. In his two races in Kansas on the Nextel Cup circuit, Hamlin has averaged a 25th-place finish; far and away the worst of the "Chasers."

Talladega

Best Driver: Without a single win, Busch has managed to compile the best run at Talladega. His standard race at the Alabama track nets him a 10.2 finish.
Worst Driver: The only superspeedway in the Chase eats up Busch's brother, Kyle. In his five starts at Talladega, Kyle, on average, is finishing some 20-plus spots behind his brother with a 30.8 average median finish.

Charlotte

Best Driver: Surprise, surprise -- the driver of the Lowe's car dominates at Lowe's Motor Speedway. With five wins in his 12 starts at the Charlotte course Jimmie Johnson owns this track with an average finish of 8.8.
Worst Driver: Back-to-back tracks of despair could be in store for Kyle Busch. The only driver to have an average finish higher than 30.0 at any of the tracks in the Chase goes belly up again with an average of 34.3 in his seven starts at Lowe's. Ouch!

Inside The Chase

After back-to-back wins at California and Richmond, Jimmie Johnson is hitting his stride as the Chase starts.

• Complete story, click here
• It's go time for Gordon
• Aumann: Key moments
• Menzer: Kenseth concern
• McCarthy: No-mentum
• Complete Coverage

Martinsville

Best Driver: The defending champ get's his groove on again in Virginia. Following his dueling win over Gordon in April, his third at the track, Johnson claims superiority again with an average finish of 6.6.
Worst Driver: Martin doesn't like Martinsville. In his three races at the half-mile oval, Martin Truex Jr. has finished a half-mile behind the leader with an average posting of 28th place.

Atlanta

Best Driver: Welcome to Atlanta where the players play and the biggest player at Atlanta Motor Speedway is Carl Edwards, who owns two wins and a 9.8 average finish at the track just south of the ATL.
Worst Driver: Southern fried at AMS has been Kevin Harvick. Even with a win in 2001, his average finish is a futile 25.1.

Texas

Best Driver: Hamlin returns to the fray averaging a fantastic fifth-place finish. Despite having no wins at the 1.5 mile track, Hamlin's number well outdistances the field.
Worst Driver: Kyle Busch regains the crown he captured at Talladega. An average finish of 28.3 at the Fort Worth track is a large hurdle to overcome down the stretch.

Phoenix

Best Driver: He's seeded No. 1 going into the Chase and could be seeded No. 1 going into the final race. At the penultimate track on the Chase circuit Johnson, the driver of the 48 car, averages a 7.3 finish.
Worst Driver: The only winless driver of the "Chasers" isn't likely to break through in the desert. Bowyer is on the outside of the top 20 typically averaging a 20.5 finish at Phoenix.

Homestead

Best Driver: We have a tie. Harvick and Edwards both finish up strong. In the season's final event each driver has been able to muster an 8.7 average finish.
Worst Driver: The single worst result of any of the drivers at any of the Chase tracks is Kyle Busch's 39.5 average finish in his two starts at Homestead. South Florida has many distractions, but look for Busch to improve this number regardless of the circumstances in the Chase.

Now, in alphabetical order by last name, let's look at each driver's best and worst track among the final 10.

Clint Bowyer

Best Track: As detailed above, Bowyer is the best in the group at Kansas, though he's only raced in front of the home fans once. His sixth-place finish should spur confidence in the third race of the Chase.
Worst Track: Getting off to a bad start is a real concern for the driver of the Jack Daniel's Chevy. His average of 29.3 could make the 12th-seeded driver play catchup in Dover.

Jeff Burton

Best Track: Mr. Consistency doesn't stray too wildly in his numbers at any track; however, his best work is done in Arizona at Phoenix. His two wins have pushed Burton to an 11.6 average finish.
Worst Track: Burton's lows come at Lowe's (that joke looked great in my mind). Despite two wins in 27 starts Burton doesn't average a top 20 start -- sputtering in at 23.5

Kurt Busch

Best Track: Although a native of Las Vegas native might be singing Sweet Home Alabama if his success at Talladega continues. Nearly grabbing a top-10 on average, Busch seems to find his groove in the Deep South.
Worst Track: Have I already used the lows at Lowe's joke? In any case, Busch doesn't seem to like the Charlotte course nearly pushing outside the top 30 at 29.7.

Kyle Busch

Best Track: Dover is about as good as it gets for the outgoing HMS driver. Lucky 13.2 is what he'll be aiming to improve upon in Delaware.
Worst Track: Ughhh! Every time I look at that 39.5 number at Homestead I cringe. Still, let's remember that the sample size is a tad small. We are talking about two races here.

Carl Edwards

Best Track: Apparently, Edwards doesn't have to stop through Atlanta's nightmare of an airport. His 9.8 average finish should have him back-flipping his way to the private plane. If you can, drive like the NASCAR guys to this race.
Worst Track: The drive from Atlanta to Talladega is a breeze, but apparently Carl's mojo gets lost in the shuffle. His worst numbers are in 'Bama where he posts an average finish of 23.0.

Jeff Gordon

Best Track: Seven wins at the half-mile track of Martinsville have the dominant driver of the season posting an average finish of 7.3 in Virginia.
Worst Track: He owns the car that dominates in Charlotte, the 48 of Johnson, but Gordon the driver has less fun at Lowe's. His only average outside of the top 20 is the 20.2 he posts here.

Denny Hamlin

Best Track: The 3.7 average at New Hampshire easily takes the cake here, but Hamlin should be considered a major threat for the championship based on the overall numbers that I am looking at.
Worst Track: Hamlin doesn't have a lot in common with Dorothy or Toto for that matter. Kansas has been nothing like home for the driver who'll likely want to click his heels onto Talladega if history repeats itself. Hamlin averages a 25th-place finish at the 1.5 mile course.

Kevin Harvick

Best Track: Harvick finds Homestead to his liking. An 8.7 average finish would serve well in the event that the Richard Childress driver is in the mix on the last weekend of the year.
Worst Track: Why does everyone seem to struggle at Lowe's? The race in Charlotte could be a turning point in the season. Harvick, in his 13 starts, averages a 26.3 finish.

Jimmie Johnson

Best Track: Johnson has several tracks where he averages a top-10, but none is better than his typical 6.6 finish at Martinsville.
Worst Track: If you can call it a struggle, Johnson's 19.3 finish at Talladega ranks worst among the last 10 races.

Matt Kenseth

Best Track: Expect Kenseth to get off to a hot start in the Chase. He averages a 10.7 number at New Hampshire -- best for him among the last 10 courses.
Worst Track: Homestead could be homely for Kenseth if he doesn't flip the script. He typically finishes the season with a 22.7 clip.

Tony Stewart

Best Track: This Tiger roars loudest in Kansas. His one win in six tries at Kansas has him on a 6.5 average pace.
Worst Track: If there is such a thing as a best worst, Stewart has the honor. A 17.8 average finish is as bad as it gets for the 20 team -- and that isn't too bad at all. Guess where it happens, though? It's the same ailment everyone else has contracted -- the Lowe's lows.

Martin Truex Jr.

Best Track: The Chase face for DEI puts his best face forward at Dover where he won his first career Nextel Cup race in June. Truex averages a 9.7 finish in Delaware.
Worst Track: You heard it before. Martin doesn't like Martinsville where he comes home on average in 28th position.

Now, with all of the above numbers scrambling around in your head I'll give you the predicted order of finish for the championship based on their combined average finish at the 10 Chase tracks:

Obviously, I had no idea how this would turn out when I took on this number-crunching exercise, but one outcome I'm impressed with is that the three drivers with the most wins this season end up on top in this particular model. That is both the "truth" and the "supreme beauty" of this mind-numbing math exercise.

Thanks, Bertrand.

Question of the Week

Why not jam up the NASCAR.COM inboxes, I say? It's survey time and the subject is Dale Earnhardt Jr. With his race for the Chase over in 2007, I'm asking all NASCAR fans with access to a crystal ball to give me a "yes" or "no" to the following question:
Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. make the Chase next year in an HMS car?

Send your thoughts to me at Beau@Turner.com. ... I'm waiting.

Last Week's QOW

It was my last chance to throw an honest "Who do you think will win the championship?" poll out there before the Chase began so I took it and here are the results ...

Full disclosure: I did an interview with Kenseth last week, so. ... Perhaps that content had an impact on the results. Below is a typical e-mail.

Well, you just interviewed my favorite driver, so. ... Matt Kenseth is going to win the championship, of course. And maybe then we can quiet down those that thought he didn't really deserve it the first time. Although the rest of us know better. Go, Matt Go!
Kensethfan713

I'm just saying there's a chance that my inbox was flooded by the pro-Kenseth contingent.

Chat Room Chatter

With every Jimmie Johnson/Jeff Gordon win, the chat room gets flooded by the word "cheater." I can't wait to see if the word "cheater" is used when Dale Jr. and Tony Eury Jr. inevitably win a race next year. My point is, if NASCAR is going to forgive all three teams -- shouldn't we? Perhaps calling someone a cheater is half the fun and I just don't get it.

Hey Beau, is Rick Hendrick the George Steinbrenner of NASCAR?
Jim -- Iowa

Not at all and here is the difference. Rick Hendrick signs big names and wins championships. The Boss can't seem to get the latter done of late.

This Week

The answer to the question, "Will Jeff Gordon get robbed of a championship he has owned all year long?" begins to get answered this week. Remember, Kurt Busch has a title that some Gordon fans believe should have been his fifth and thus 2007 would have been a run at six.

Enjoy the race.

The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.