Anybody's Chase to win, unless we're talking 24, 48

There are nine races, and 12 drivers, remaining in the Chase for the Nextel Cup. So here is a game you might want to play as we race down the final two months -- I call it Who Do You Got? Oh, you only get one choice. Select one of the following:

Do you want Jimmie Johnson? Or do you want the field?

Do you want Jeff Gordon? Or do you want the field?

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Remember you only get one choice. There are a few of us playing this game. I won't give you any hints or help, but the selection is not as easy as it sounds. Sure, if you take the field against Johnson you get Gordon in the group. And if you take the field against Gordon you get Johnson in the group. But in both cases you also take on the risk. Right now, with Gordon and Johnson, it's an even break.

You know I love the numbers, that's why I enjoy looking things up all the time so you don't have to. But let's just review a few of them, starting with Dover. Gordon has four wins there, but the last one came in June of 2001, and that is his only victory there in his last 21 races at Dover. He has back-to-back top-10 finishes at Dover, but those are his only top-10s in the last five races there.

Johnson is a three-time winner at Dover, including his first two starts at the track in the Nextel Cup Series, a sweep in 2002. He won there in September of 2005, his lone win in the last nine Dover events. His last two starts at Dover have resulted in finishes of 15th in June and 13th last September.

Now, this is only one track, and one race, but if you're in, you don't want to start off with a bad race. Among the guys in the Chase, Jeff Burton (defending race winner), Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart have all won at Dover.

But it is not all about Dover. It is also about guts, yours and theirs. Do you like the way a certain driver competes in a pressurized environment? Is there one guy out there that is always strong in the final five to eight races? How far back is too far back? And when is it too far?

In 2006, Jeff Burton started the Chase with three finishes of seventh or better including that Dover win, but had just one finish better than seventh in the last seven races.

In 2006 Gordon started the Chase with a third and a third. Then went 39th, 26th, and 34th. That never helps.

In 2006 Denny Hamlin finished the Chase with five consecutive top-10 finishes, including a second and two third-place runs. But 21st at Talladega and 28th at Charlotte really hurt.

Quick now, without looking it up, who finished second in the Chase in 2006? Think about it. Time is up. Matt Kenseth, 56 points behind Johnson. Kenseth did not win in the Chase, had a 23rd at Kansas, and five top-10s in the 10 races. Matt had four finishes between 11th and 14th. That middle-of-the-pack stuff will cost you, too.

Last year Kevin Harvick won at New Hampshire, the first race in the Chase, and at Phoenix, the ninth race in the Chase. He led 196 of 300 laps at New Hampshire, and 252 of 312 laps at Phoenix. In the other eight races he led a total of just nine laps, all at Atlanta. He finished 31st there and 32nd at Dover. Harvick finished fourth in the Chase.

There are numbers that can make you think, and numbers that will make your head spin.

Oh, the numbers for Johnson last year? The numbers that will make your head spin: 39th to get things started at New Hampshire, a 13th at Dover, then 14th at Kansas and 24th at Talladega. How quickly we forget. He was eighth in the Chase with six races to go. Out of it. Like the Yankees chasing the Red Sox. Then again ... Johnson went on a tear, four second-place finishes plus a win at Martinsville. He zoomed from eighth to first and sealed the title with a ninth-place run at Homestead.

So who do you got?

Jeff Gordon has four championships, his last championship came in 2001, and none have come in the Chase format. This might be his best shot.

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"Back then if you were having a good year, you were probably racing four or five guys for the championship at the halfway point of the season," Gordon said. "With about 10 to go, it was down to maybe two or three drivers. You would keep an eye on them during a race, and you might adjust your strategy based on what they were doing.

"You can't do that now. With 12 drivers racing hard for the title, you can't focus on what the other Chase drivers are doing. We'll just focus on our own program and try to get the best finish -- and most amounts of points -- that we possibly can on a given day. That's why I think it's more difficult to win the championship under this format, but also why I think it's probably more rewarding."

This year he may find out. But to do that, he'll have to beat the field, and Johnson, his teammate at Hendrick Motorsports.

"We've been through this before," Johnson said. "We've competed against each other in championships and through it all, year after year, week after week, we recognize how if we work together it helps both of us and that's still the bottom line."

Until you get to the finish line.

"When we get on the track there's still enough going on with each driver's style, each crew chief's style, that when you get out on the track you can race your own independent race and not worry about things," Johnson said. "I would expect us to continue with the open notebook policy that we've always had and try to ensure HMS with a championship."

That's why in this little game you can't have both of them. Two against 10, that's just not fair.

Gordon has watched the Chase and raced in the Chase and like the other 11 drivers he knows the key to success is not to lose it early. For his sponsor, DuPont, this is their home track.

"We're definitely going for wins during the Chase, and I would love to get one here for them," Gordon said. "But wins won't necessarily determine the champion. You must have the consistency during this stretch, as well."

Kenseth knows about that. He is the King of Consistency. Seventh in the Chase, 54 points back of the two tied at the top. What is his view of the field after Round 1?

"To be honest with you, I don't think it's possible to handicap it today. I think you have to wait a few weeks," Kenseth said.

Terrific.

"I don't think any of you guys probably thought of [Clint Bowyer] as one of the guys who was really going to have a shot at it," Kenseth said. "He just kicked everybody's butt this weekend [at New Hampshire]. I think really all 12 teams today, you know, got a legitimate shot. You look at Kurt [Busch]. He had problems [25th at Loudon, 12th in the Chase]. Kurt put that run together right before the Chase, won a couple races, was real fast, worked his way up in there. I think anybody right now could get [on] a roll and be a real contender."

Gee, thanks. So there you have it, straight from a former series champion. "Anybody" could win it.

So, do you want to play a game? If so, Who Do You Got?

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.