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The season has come down to the final 267 laps. It's man and machine vs. man and machine for two drivers -- Jimmie Johnson, seeking consecutive Cup Series championships, and Jeff Gordon, in hot pursuit of his fifth series title.
The Cliff's Notes version of the Countdown to Coronation for Johnson:
JJ clinches ...
18th place or better, even if Jeff Gordon wins and leads the most laps
19th place or better if he leads one lap
21st place or better if he leads the most laps
Sounds like NASCAR should just hand Johnson the title, after all the No. 48 has finished worse than 18th only seven times this season. He's also finished 19th once and 21st once.
But there is hope for Gordon:
6 -- Times Johnson and Gordon have raced at Homestead against each other.
1 -- Times Gordon has out-pointed Johnson by 87 or more points at Homestead (100 points in 2005).
4 -- Times this year Gordon has out-pointed Johnson by 87 or more points:
Daytona on Feb. 18 -- 88 points
Texas on April 15 -- 121 points
Pocono on June 10 -- 153 points
Indianapolis on July 29 -- 119 points
Certainly it ain't over 'til it's over, but there's a fat lady sitting right over there who's ready to take the stage.
Nonetheless, I'm sticking with Gordon (hey, Clint Bowyer's eliminated). Even after four consecutive victories, Johnson's average finish in the Chase is 4.7. Gordon's is 5.2. That adds up to 86 points? A 0.5 difference, in nine races, equates to 9.5 points per finish?
Again, it's the point system that needs to be tweaked. That's all I'm saying ...
Did you know
Of the 17 modern-era Cup Series champions that 10 were born on race weeks? Five were born before the series began and two were born in the offseason.
| Driver | Born | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. Allison | Dec. 3, 1937 | Born before series started | |
| Ku. Busch | Aug. 4, 1978 | Aug. 6, 1978, at Talladega | L. Pond |
| D. Earnhardt | April 29, 1951 | April 29, 1951, at North Wilkesboro (N.C.) Speedway | F. Flock |
| B. Elliott | Oct. 8, 1955 | Oct. 9, 1955, at Memphis-Arkansas Speedway | S. Thompson |
| J. Gordon | Aug. 4, 1971 | Aug. 6, 1971, at Bowman-Gray Stadium | B. Allison |
| D. Jarrett | Nov. 26, 1956 | Season ended Nov. 18, 1956 | |
| J. Johnson | Sept. 17, 1975 | Sept. 21, 1975, at North Wilkesboro (N.C.) Speedway | R. Petty |
| M. Kenseth | March 10, 1972 | March 12, 1972, at North Carolina Speedway | B. Isaac |
| A. Kulwicki | Dec. 14, 1954 | Season ended Oct. 24, 1954 | |
| B. Labonte | May 8, 1964 | May 9, 1964, at Darlington (S.C.) Raceway | F. Lorenzen |
| T. Labonte | Nov. 16, 1956 | Nov. 18, 1956, at Wilson (N.C.) Speedway | B. Baker |
| B. Parsons | July 12, 1941 | Born before series started | |
| R. Petty | July 2, 1937 | Born before series started | |
| T. Stewart | May 20, 1971 | May 21, 1971, at New Asheville (N.C.) Speedway | R. Petty |
| R. Wallace | Aug. 14, 1956 | Aug. 17, 1956, at Old Bridge (N.J.) Stadium | R. Moody |
| D. Waltrip | Feb. 5, 1947 | Born before series started | |
| C. Yarborough | March 27, 1939 | Born before series started |
High Five
Jeff Gordon's quest for a fifth series championship isn't the only drive for five at Homestead:
| Year | Driver | Tracks |
|---|---|---|
| 1976 | Cale Yarborough * | Richmond, Dover, Martinsville, North Wilkesboro |
| 1981 | Darrell Waltrip * | Martinsville, North Wilkesboro, Charlotte, Rockingham |
| 1987 | Dale Earnhardt * | Darlington, North Wilkesboro, Bristol, Martinsville |
| 1991 | Harry Gant | Darlington, Richmond, Dover, Martinsville |
| 1992 | Bill Elliott | Rockingham, Richmond, Atlanta, Darlington |
| 1993 | Mark Martin | Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, Darlington |
| 1998 | Jeff Gordon * | Pocono, Indianapolis, Watkins Glen, Michigan |
| 2007 | Jimmie Johnson | Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas, Phoenix |
The last driver to win five in a row was Richard Petty in 1971: Malta, Islip, Trenton, Nashville and Atlanta. He won 21 races that year, and did not finish worse than fourth in his last 22 starts (12 wins, five second-place finishes, four third-place finishes and one fourth-place finish).
In 46 starts (out of 48 races) in '71, Petty's average finish was 4.2 -- including five DNFs: 13th, 17th, 20th, 20th and 38th. His worst finish in the other 41 races? Two seventh-place finishes; he had 38 top-fives.
| Track | Start | Finish | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riverside | 1 | 20 | engine |
| Daytona | 3 | 3 | running |
| Daytona | 5 | 1 | running |
| Ontario | 3 | 3 | running |
| Richmond | 30 | 1 | running |
| Rockingham | 2 | 1 | running |
| Hickory | 4 | 1 | running |
| Bristol | 2 | 2 | running |
| Atlanta | 3 | 2 | running |
| Columbia | 4 | 1 | running |
| Greenville | 4 | 7 | running |
| Maryville | 2 | 1 | running |
| North Wilkesboro | 3 | 1 | running |
| Martinsville | 3 | 1 | running |
| Darlington | 4 | 20 | engine |
| South Boston | 3 | 2 | running |
| Talladega | 5 | 38 | crash |
| Asheville | 1 | 1 | running |
| Kingsport | 2 | 17 | rear end |
| Charlotte | 5 | 4 | running |
| Dover | 1 | 3 | running |
| Michigan | 7 | 6 | running |
| Riverside | 2 | 13 | engine |
| Houston | 2 | 7 | running |
| Greenville | 2 | 1 | running |
| Daytona | 4 | 2 | running |
| Bristol | 1 | 3 | running |
| Malta | 1 | 1 | running |
| Islip | 1 | 1 | running |
| Trenton | 2 | 1 | running |
| Nashville | 1 | 1 | running |
| Atlanta | 3 | 1 | running |
| Winston-Salem | 1 | 2 | running |
| Ona | 2 | 1 | running |
| Michigan | 6 | 2 | running |
| Talladega | 5 | 2 | running |
| Columbia | 1 | 1 | running |
| Hickory | 4 | 3 | running |
| Darlington | 6 | 2 | running |
| Martinsville | 2 | 3 | running |
| Charlotte | 5 | 4 | running |
| Dover | 4 | 1 | running |
| Rockingham | 5 | 1 | running |
| Richmond | 11 | 1 | running |
| North Wilkesboro | 2 | 3 | running |
| College Station | 3 | 1 | running |
| Averages | 3.8 | 4.2 |
Say What?
"It's over."
-- Jeff Gordon, conceding the championship to Jimmie Johnson after Phoenix
Menzer: Gordon, facing 86-point deficit, concedes to Johnson
Figuratively Speaking
2 -- Tunnels at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Why is that important? Read on (bar-bet material alert, from Bill Marx of the Sports News Wire Service):
Both tunnels are below sea level, but that's not where you are going to win your bet. But you will on this: The back tunnel is the southern-most tunnel in the continental United States, according to the speedway. It is large enough to accommodate two tractor-trailer trucks.
218 -- Races in which Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have raced against each other:
Wins -- Johnson leads 33-23
Top-five finishes -- Tied with 86
Top-10 finishes -- Johnson leads 133-127
Average finish -- Johnson leads 12.0-13.1
Up Next
Ford 400 | Homestead | 3 p.m. ET Sunday | ABC
Race No. 36 of 36 | Get tickets
| Book travel
Defending race winner: Greg Biffle
Most victories at the track: Biffle (3 -- 2004-06, active win streak)
Best average finish (minimum five starts): Kevin Harvick (8.7 in six starts)
Active drivers only
| Pos. | Driver | N.H. | Dover | Kan. | 'Dega | Char. | Mart. | Atl. | Tex. | Pho. | H'stead | Pts. | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | J. Johnson | 6 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6,572 | -- | |
| 2. | J. Gordon | 2 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 6,486 | -86 | |
| 3. | C. Bowyer | 1 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 11 | 6,331 | -241 | |
| 4. | Ky. Busch | 4 | 5 | 41 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 6,185 | -387 | |
| 5. | T. Stewart | 3 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 6,169 | -403 | |
| 6. | M. Kenseth | 7 | 35 | 35 | 26 | 34 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6,103 | -469 | |
| 7. | K. Harvick | 17 | 20 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6,093 | -479 | |
| 8. | J. Burton | 18 | 7 | 36 | 43 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 6,089 | -483 | |
| 9. | C. Edwards | 12 | 1 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 26 | 42 | 6,067 | -505 | |
| 10. | Ku. Busch | 25 | 29 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 6,056 | -516 | |
| 11. | M. Truex Jr. | 5 | 13 | 38 | 42 | 17 | 19 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 6,009 | -563 | |
| 12. | D. Hamlin | 15 | 38 | 29 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 24 | 29 | 16 | 5,973 | -599 |
Odds 'n' Ends
Watch the Truck Series finale at 7:30 p.m. ET Friday on SPEED. Mike Skinner has a 29-point advantage on Ron Hornaday and this will be a 134-lap shootout.
Skinner will carry the flag for Toyota, which is making its 100th race start in the series. He's the only driver who has been entered in each of those races for Toyota.
At Homestead, Skinner has one top-five finish and two top-10s in five starts; Hornaday has one win, three top-fives and six top-10s in seven races.
Hornaday already has a leg up, winning two Truck Series titles (1996 and '98) but Skinner will always be the inaugural series champion (1995).

And give the Busch Series its due. Saturday's race (4 p.m. ET on ESPN2) is the finale for series sponsor Anheuser-Busch.
In 26 years there have been many memories:
By the Numbers
Greatest Driver
Birth of a series
Gone but not forgotten
Where are they now
Tale of a Busch lifer
Whatever happened to ...
Keller looks back -- and forward
Keller: By the Numbers
Where is ... T. Houston
We'll have more on the Busch Series on Thursday. Until then, this Bud's for you, A-B.
OK, so Petty Enterprises is moving into Yates Racing's building in Mooresville, N.C. So where will Yates' cars be built? At Roush Fenway.
"We're making preparations to enter into a service agreement with them that will avail them of the technology and of the vehicles with the engineering essence and the vehicles that are coming out of our construction activities," Jack Roush said at Phoenix.
"If, taken to the other extreme, an IROC scenario where all the cars were completely identical coming out of the factory, then the cost to the teams and the value to the sponsors would be maximized. This is something in between."
It's called the Car of Tomorrow.
It was good to see Sterling Marlin back behind the wheel at Phoenix.
Kyle Petty, currently 34th in points, is locked into the top 35 for 2008. ... Dave Blaney isn't -- yet. The No. 22 Toyota is 136 owner points ahead of the No. 21 Ford.
Roger Penske has not decided if he'll move Kurt Busch's points to Sam Hornish Jr. to guarantee the driver a spot in the first five races of next season. Busch, of course, has the past champion provisional as a fall back.
And there's actually debate over whether the Top 35 rule is antiquated, three years after its inception?
Stock-car racing is high-dollar business. NASCAR should treat it as such and make the rules fair for everyone who wants to go racing.
If Jimmie Johnson vs. Jeff Gordon doesn't stoke your fire, try keeping up with who's in 10th place. That's the cutoff for booking a reservation in New York for Champions Week.
The top 10 get a pass to the Big Apple. Nos. 11 and 12 get a jump on vacation.
Sandbag, anyone?
The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.
| Pos. | Driver | Make |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jimmie Johnson | Chevrolet |
| 2. | Greg Biffle | Ford |
| 3. | Matt Kenseth | Ford |
| 4. | Tony Stewart | Chevrolet |
| 5. | Ryan Newman | Dodge |
| 6. | Kevin Harvick | Chevrolet |
| 7. | Martin Truex Jr. | Chevrolet |
| 8. | Kyle Busch | Chevrolet |
| 9. | Jeff Burton | Chevrolet |
| 10. | Jeff Gordon | Chevrolet |
| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | -- | Jimmie Johnson | 6572 | Leader |
| 2. | -- | Jeff Gordon | 6486 | -86 |
| 3. | -- | Clint Bowyer* | 6331 | -241 |
| 4. | -- | Kyle Busch* | 6185 | -387 |
| 5. | +1 | Tony Stewart* | 6169 | -403 |
| 6. | +4 | Matt Kenseth* | 6103 | -469 |
| 7. | +1 | Kevin Harvick* | 6093 | -479 |
| 8. | -1 | Jeff Burton* | 6089 | -483 |
| 9. | -4 | Carl Edwards* | 6067 | -505 |
| 10. | -1 | Kurt Busch* | 6056 | -516 |
| 11. | +1 | Martin Truex Jr.* | 6009 | -563 |
| 12. | -1 | Denny Hamlin* | 5973 | -599 |