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Rain, rain, go away: When weather comes, Ward goes home.

Fridays more for placement as 43 fastest rarely start

By Josh Pate, NASCAR.COM
December 16, 2007
04:26 PM EST
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It was a scene all too familiar for the No. 4 team of Morgan-McClure Motorsports: The car sitting on stands, hood up, under a tent shoved somewhere in the corner of the infield.

At some tracks like Texas it was a makeshift garage only it wasn't inside one of the actual stalls. Others like Bristol forced the team completely outside of the racetrack, where crewmen operated on their patient while peeking inside NASCAR's cathedral. Of course, by Friday night, the Morgan-McClure team was often packing up the hauler and pulling out bound for home in Abingdon, Va.

That's the top 35 rule for you. The slippery slope that teams face only gets greasier on qualifying Fridays. Morgan-McClure made just 16 races with driver Ward Burton. The team was 46th in owner points. The No. 4 car just wasn't fast enough in qualifying.

Or was it?

There were 13 other races aside from the 16 he started that Burton turned a qualifying lap among the 43 fastest. But due to the current top 35 rule, he missed the show in each of those attempts.

NASCAR saves a spot in each race for the top-35 teams according to owner points. That leaves seven positions available as well as a final spot for either a past champion or the next-fastest car -- not exactly comforting to most of the 46 to 51 cars trying to squeeze into a 43-car field any given week, at leas those not in the top 35.

The problem, due to the top 35 rule, comes when teams clock a fast enough time during qualifying yet a slower car that's locked in through owner points takes the position. It leaves teams like Morgan-McClure on the outside permanently despite out-running cars that will race on Sunday.

The same can be said for Michael Waltrip's team. His No. 55 car made just 14 races this year. Yet like Burton, there were 13 races he missed despite having one of the 43 fastest cars.

What difference does that make?

In 16 starts, Burton averaged 96 points per race. Had Burton qualified for those additional 13 races in which he was among the 43 fastest cars, he would have started a total of 29 races. Playing the what-if game, if Burton stuck with his average point production in 29 starts instead of just 16, his No. 4 car would sit 36th in owner points -- one spot outside of the cutoff.

Waltrip averaged 131 points per race in 14 starts. Had he qualified for those additional 13 races and stuck to his average production, his No. 55 would rank 19th in owner points.

It's a big what-if, and it involves many uncontrollable factors -- the most significant being that most teams locked into a qualifying spot aren't gambling with setups during time trials, particularly at places like Talladega and Daytona.

What is concrete, however, is that fast cars missed races in 2007 -- fast cars that attempt to run a full schedule.

And slow cars made races in 2007 -- slow cars that made the show simply because they run a full schedule.

Twenty-six drivers missed races this season despite clocking times that were among the 43 fastest, with Burton and Waltrip topping the list at 13 DNQs apiece. A.J. Allmendinger was right behind them with 10.

On the flip side, there were 42 drivers who made races in 2007 yet their times were not among the 43 fastest. Robby Gordon took advantage of the rule nine times, while Johnny Sauter, Tony Raines and Kyle Petty all had eight races in which their times did not qualify them but their position in owner points did.

All told, there were 109 instances when a car was among the 43 fastest during qualifying and did not make the race. Those figures do include the Daytona 500, which relies on a completely different qualifying format.

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On at least five notable occasions drivers' times were disallowed yet they were allowed to start the race: Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth at the Daytona 500; Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson at Sonoma; and Ryan Newman at Kansas.

Nine times a driver qualified for the race due to the top 35 rule yet he did not register a time during qualifying.

And 14 times a driver qualified for the race due to the rule yet he had the slowest time in qualifying.

Some notables:

• A week after securing the pole for the Daytona 500, David Gilliland was 44th in qualifying at California. Yet he made the race due to owner points -- last year's owner points. The first five races of the season use the previous year's top 35 points.

• Including the Daytona 500, Dale Jarrett would have missed the first four races had qualifying been based solely on time; remember, his new team had no owner points from the previous season. Yet he made all four races due to being the most recent past champion making a qualifying attempt.

• Mr. Bristol, Kurt Busch would have missed the spring race at the half-mile after he clocked the slowest time of 49 drivers. Yet he made it due to owner points from the previous season.

• A week after his Coca-Cola 600 victory, Casey Mears would have failed to qualify at Dover had he depended on his time. Yet he made the race, finished 13th and proceeded to have consecutive fourth-place finishes the next two weeks.

• Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson failed inspection and didn't qualify at Sonoma, yet they were allowed to race. It wouldn't have mattered; they both would have still entered the Chase 1-2 due to their number of race victories.

• After winning New Hampshire to start the Chase, Clint Bowyer would have failed to qualify at Dover a week later after having the slowest time of 49 drivers, thus crumbling his title hopes immediately. Instead of finishing third in the standings, he would have been sixth.

Just two races during the entire season had the 43 fastest cars start the race: the spring race at Martinsville and the fall race at New Hampshire.

And just four drivers who finished the season inside the top 35 went through 2007 without using the top 35 rule as a crutch to make a race. Reed Sorenson was one, and the other three ironically all came from Joe Gibbs Racing: Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin and J.J. Yeley.

Under current circumstances, Fridays aren't for qualifying, they're for placement. The fastest 43 cars don't line up on the starting grid. The current rule was designed to protect the owners and sponsors of those cars that run full time.

The problem: the rule was implemented in 2005, when the en vogue item of discussion was driver shortages in NASCAR. Two years later the garage is saturated with full-time teams rather than field-fillers. For an open market, as is often preached, then the doors must truly be open.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.

Race-by-Race Qualifying Breakdown

Fast drivers who did not start vs. slow drivers who used the top 35 rule
Race Driver who did not start Qual. Pos.   Driver who did start Qual. Pos.
Daytona Jeremy Mayfield 15th   Joe Nemechek 45th
  Mike Skinner 17th   Ken Schrader 46th
  Regan Smith 25th   Scott Riggs 47th
  Ward Burton 30th   Dale Jarrett 48th
  Paul Menard 31st   Carl Edwards 49th
  A.J. Allmendinger 38th   Jeff Burton 50th
  Kevin Lepage 40th   Mike Wallace 59th
  Bill Elliott 41st   Matt Kenseth DQ
  Brian Vickers 43rd   Kasey Kahne DQ
           
California Michael Waltrip 34th   David Gilliland 44th
  Ward Burton 36th   Tony Raines 45th
  Jeremy Mayfield 37th   Robby Gordon 48th
  A.J. Allmendinger 38th   Dale Jarrett 50th
           
Las Vegas A.J. Allmendinger 35th   Dale Jarrett 47th
  Mike Bliss 37th   Jon Wood 49th
  John Andretti 41st   Bobby Labonte 52nd
           
Atlanta Scott Wimmer 32nd   Dale Jarrett 44th
  Ward Burton 33rd   David Ragan 45th
  John Andretti 38th   Robby Gordon 46th
  Michael Waltrip 40th   Kyle Petty 48th
  Kenny Wallace 41st   Jeff Green 49th
  Kevin Lepage 43rd   Ricky Rudd 50th
           
Bristol Kevin Lepage 38th   David Ragan 46th
  David Reutimann 40th   Kurt Busch 49th
           
Martinsville N/A --   N/A --
           
Texas (rain) N/A --   N/A --
           
Phoenix Jeremy Mayfield 37th   Kyle Petty 44th
  Michael Waltrip 38th   David Stremme 45th
  John Andretti 39th   Johnny Sauter 47th
  Brian Vickers 43rd   Dale Jarrett 48th
           
Talladega Michael Waltrip 20th   Martin Truex Jr. 44th
  Brian Vickers 21st   Robby Gordon 45th
  Dave Blaney 30th   Elliott Sadler 48th
  A.J. Allmendinger 31st   Clint Bowyer 49th
  Ken Schrader 34th   Kevin Harvick 50th
  Mike Wallace 35th   Jeff Burton 51st
  Kevin Lepage 43rd   Dale Jarrett 52nd
           
Richmond Brian Vickers 35th   Elliott Sadler 45th
  Ken Schrader 37th   David Gilliland 46th
  Michael Waltrip 38th   Robby Gordon 48th
           
Darlington Jeremy Mayfield 30th   David Gilliland 45th
  Ward Burton 33rd   Jeff Green 46th
  Mike Bliss 35th   Ricky Rudd 47th
  Michael Waltrip 39th   Juan Montoya 48th
  Dale Jarrett 41st   Kyle Petty 49th
           
Charlotte Paul Menard 33rd   Carl Edwards 44th
  Michael Waltrip 38th   Johnny Sauter 45th
  Ward Burton 39th   Clint Bowyer 47th
  Kevin Lepage 43rd   Jeff Green 48th
           
Dover Dave Blaney 38th   Ricky Rudd 44th
  Paul Menard 39th   Casey Mears 48th
  Kenny Wallace 40th   Johnny Sauter 49th
           
Pocono Michael Waltrip 32nd   Johnny Sauter 47th
  Kenny Wallace 36th   Greg Biffle 48th
  Jeremy Mayfield 43rd   Sterling Marlin 49th
           
Michigan Dale Jarrett 42nd   Jeff Green 44th
           
Infineon Ward Burton 36th   David Ragan 46th
  Scott Riggs 37th   Casey Mears 47th
  Brandon Ash 40th   Joe Nemechek 49th
  Paul Menard 41st   David Stremme 50th
  Brian Vickers 42nd   Jeff Gordon DQ
  A.J. Allmendinger 43rd   Jimmie Johnson DQ
           
New Hampshire Michael Waltrip 43rd   Ricky Rudd 46th
           
Daytona (rain) N/A --   N/A --
           
Chicagoland Scott Riggs 40th   Tony Raines 44th
  Brian Vickers 41st   Ricky Rudd 46th
  Dale Jarrett 42nd   David Gilliland 49th
           
Indianapolis Joe Nemechek 41st   Robby Gordon 49th
           
Pocono Mike Bliss 43rd   Kyle Petty 45th
           
Watkins Glen (rain) N/A --   N/A --
           
Michigan Jeremy Mayfield 41st   Johnny Sauter 45th
  Dale Jarrett 43rd   Chad McCumbee 48th
           
Bristol David Reutimann 41st   Paul Menard 45th
  Sterling Marlin 42nd   Tony Raines 46th
           
California Scott Riggs 33rd   Aric Almirola 44th
  Ward Burton 41st   Johnny Sauter 45th
  Dale Jarrett 42nd   Juan Montoya 46th
           
Richmond Michael Waltrip 43rd   Bill Elliott 46th
           
New Hampshire N/A --   N/A --
           
Dover Ward Burton 38th   Kenny Wallace 44th
  Scott Wimmer 39th   David Stremme 46th
  Sam Hornish Jr. 42nd   Robby Gordon 48th
  Kevin Lepage 43rd   Clint Bowyer 49th
           
Kansas A.J. Allmendinger 38th   Mark Martin 45th
  Ward Burton 39th   Tony Raines 46th
  Brian Vickers 41st   Robby Gordon 47th
  Jon Wood 42nd   Ryan Newman DQ
Talladega A.J. Allmendinger 9th   Jamie McMurray 44th
  Boris Said 10th   Kyle Busch 45th
  Scott Riggs 11th   Kevin Harvick 46th
  Sam Hornish Jr. 13th   Aric Almirola 47th
  Jeremy Mayfield 15th   Johnny Sauter 48th
  Sterling Marlin 21st   Ken Schrader 49th
  Ward Burton 28th   Kurt Busch 50th
  Kevin Lepage 35th   David Ragan 51st
           
Charlotte Dale Jarrett 42nd   Tony Raines 45th
  Joe Nemechek 43rd   Kyle Petty 46th
           
Martinsville Sam Hornish Jr. 38th   Bill Elliott 45th
  Joe Nemechek 40th   Kyle Petty 46th
           
Atlanta David Reutimann 33rd   Ricky Rudd 44th
  Burney Lamar 34th   Kyle Petty 45th
  Sam Hornish Jr. 35th   Tony Raines 46th
  Ward Burton 41st   Jeremy Mayfield 47th
  Mike Skinner 42nd   Dave Blaney 48th
           
Texas Ward Burton 39th   Tony Raines 44th
  John Andretti 40th   Robby Gordon 45th
  Michael Waltrip 41st   Johnny Sauter 46th
           
Phoenix Michael Waltrip 32nd   David Ragan 45th
  A.J. Allmendinger 33rd   Bill Elliott 46th
  Ward Burton 43rd   David Gilliland 47th
           
Homestead A.J. Allmendinger 37th   Kyle Petty 44th
  John Andretti 41st   Robby Gordon 46th
  Joe Nemechek 42nd   Bill Elliott 47th
  Michael Waltrip 43rd   Tony Raines 48th

The End

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Inside the Numbers

Missed races due to top 35 rule
Driver Races
Ward Burton 13
Michael Waltrip 13
A.J. Allmendinger 10
Brian Vickers 8
Kevin Lepage 7
Jeremy Mayfield 7
Dale Jarrett 6
John Andretti 5
Sam Hornish Jr. 4
Paul Menard 4
Joe Nemechek 4
Scott Riggs 4
Kenny Wallace 4
Mike Bliss 3
David Reutimann 3
Dave Blaney 2
Sterling Marlin 2
Mike Skinner 2
Scott Wimmer 2
Brandon Ash 1
Bill Elliott 1
Burney Lamar 1
Boris Said 1
Ken Schrader 1
Regan Smith 1
Jon Wood 1

Inside the Numbers

Made races due to top 35 rule
Driver Races
Robby Gordon 9
Kyle Petty 8
Tony Raines 8
Johnny Sauter 8
Dale Jarrett 6
Ricky Rudd 6
David Gilliland 5
David Ragan 5
Bill Elliott 4
Jeff Green 4
Clint Bowyer 3
David Stremme 3
Aric Almirola 2
Jeff Burton 2
Kurt Busch 2
Carl Edwards 2
Kevin Harvick 2
Casey Mears 2
Juan Montoya 2
Joe Nemechek 2
Elliott Sadler 2
Ken Schrader 2
Greg Biffle 1
Dave Blaney 1
Kyle Busch 1
Jeff Gordon 1
Jimmie Johnson 1
Kasey Kahne 1
Matt Kenseth 1
Bobby Labonte 1
Sterling Marlin 1
Mark Martin 1
Jeremy Mayfield 1
Chad McCumbee 1
Jamie McMurray 1
Paul Menard 1
Ryan Newman 1
Scott Riggs 1
Martin Truex Jr. 1
Kenny Wallace 1
Mike Wallace 1
Jon Wood 1

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