Head2Head: On the make

The year was 2002. Joe Gibbs Racing was driving Pontiacs. Sterling Marlin dominated the point standings before being injured at Kansas. Rusty Wallace, Jimmy Spencer, Geoffrey Bodine, Terry Labonte and Bobby Hamilton all were driving in the Cup Series.

And it's the last time any manufacturer celebrated more victories than Chevrolet.

Ford went to Victory Lane 14 times that season compared to Chevrolet's 10 wins. In fact, it wasn't until the season's ninth race that a Chevrolet driver won when Dale Earnhardt Jr. took the checkered flag at Talladega.

In five of the six seasons since then, Chevrolets won the season-opening race. The oddity, of course, was this year's Daytona 500 when Ryan Newman won in a Dodge.

In those seasons, Chevrolet's victory total looks like this:

• 2003: 19
• 2004: 22
• 2005: 17
• 2006: 23
• 2007: 26

Notice a trend?

Nobody caught on to NASCAR's new chassis quite like Hendrick Motorsports did last season, and the rest of the Chevrolet teams followed suit with eight more wins. This season hasn't been as dominant; in five races, Chevrolet has one victory to Ford's two. There's no hiding the fact that the Hendrick group has whiffed on its attempt at taming the all-so-important intermediate tracks.

That said, engines are important. Car setups are important. But the driver is equally important. And that's where Chevrolet has the advantage.

Ford has seven drivers in its stable this year, five from the Roush Fenway team. Chevrolet has double that and Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have yet to win. That doesn't even factor in the fact that Dale Earnhardt Jr. is carrying the Hendrick banner at a performance level that he's not seen in two years. Earnhardt in Victory Lane is no longer an "if" but a "when."

While Carl Edwards has two victories already this season, and nearly had three, the chances of him and his 'mates at Roush keeping the Hendrick and Richard Childress Racing drivers at bay for 31 more races are slim to none.

The telling sign: In five races, Chevrolet has 11 top-fives, partly thanks to the 1-2-3 sweep by RCR Chevrolets at Bristol. Ford has six. And as we all know, that's what wins championships.

Put last season in the past, because five races into the 2008 campaign, the one thing we've learned is there will be no manufacturer dominance the way Chevrolet did just the past calendar year.

The season is through Bristol, and all four manufacturers have a notch in the win column. At this point last season, Chevy had four with Kenseth giving Ford its only win. Chevy went on to win an astounding 26 races, with Hendrick Motorsports claiming 18 of them.

That won't happen again.

This season, parity will be the name of the game and when the checkered flag waves at Homestead, Ford will have the most wins. And this will happen because of one guy -- Jack Roush.

Roush has his team dialed in, because the man cannot handle being embarrassed two years in a row.

Carl Edwards has two wins already, both at intermediate tracks Fontana and Las Vegas, and if it wasn't for a blown engine at Atlanta, it could easily be three. Edwards' best season for wins was 2005 when he had four -- he will destroy his previous career best this season.

Greg Biffle was a disappointment in 2007, but 2008 is a different story. He is currently second in points thanks to three consecutive top-five finishes at Vegas, Atlanta and Bristol. Just like Edwards, Biffle had a career year in 2005 with six wins -- proving he can amass a serious amount of victories in a season.

And then there is Matt Kenseth, who is always around the front and can snag a victory when everyone least expects. Only one top-five for Kenseth so far, but strong runs at Atlanta and Bristol mean this team is heading in the right direction. Remember, Kenseth is working without Robbie Reiser on top of the pit box for the first time in his career, so it's going to take a little time to get the No. 17 clicking.

In all, Roush has the capability to grab between 10 and 15 victories this season -- and they are proving that with results on the track. Biffle, Edwards and Kenseth will be responsible for most of those victories, but David Ragan and Jamie McMurray could surprise and pull out a victory, as well.

Just by shear numbers, Chevy has the advantage -- but it's not just about numbers, it's about performance. And what I've seen so far this season, especially on the intermediate tracks that dominate the schedule, any gains Chevrolet made with the new car in 2007 have been wiped away quickly by Roush Fenway and Ford.